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  4 people like this.
 
tradax SINGAPORE (Dec 30): Noble Group bonds fall as Moody's downgrades them to “junk” status, proving the commodities firm's recent asset sale to turnaround its finances fails to impress, says Dow Jones.

The company's 2018- and 2020-due bonds are down three points to 66 cents and 69 cents on the dollar, respectively.

“People have been hopeful that Noble might avoid a rating downgrade after the asset sale but it couldn’t,” said a Hong Kong-based credit trader at a Japanese investment bank.

The trader notes, though, there’s almost no transactions of the bond, mainly due to the holiday season.

The price decline largely reflects dealer quotes and bearish sentiment amid a difficult operating outlook for the company.

Standard & Poor's is likely to be next to cut Noble's rating to “junk” as the rating agency remains skeptical, even after Noble's move to raise US$750 million ($1.06 billion) by selling its remaining stake in Noble Agri.
31/12/2015 07:47
tradax Noble Group’s “Collateral Margin Call”
The downgrade of Noble Group by Moody’s depicts an aggressive financial risk and a vulnerable business risk profile*
I) the first-order problem is Macro.
"The downgrade of Noble Group to sub-inv. is worrisome, but the main story is about the evolution of the commodity price downtrend. 1st round effects were felt in macro indicators (lower CapEx & growth for producers and following FX/interest rate adjustments). 2nd round effects will be about commodity exporters' governments reactions." Those effects will dominate in 2016 said Sacha Duparc, Head trader and structurer at Banque Cantonale Vaudoise.
II) Collateral margin call. The trader has billions of dollars in commodity prepays with NOCs and producers, the value of inventories and receivables collateralized by traders into trade finance arrangements have cratered in the past year.
This collateral value of Noble Group is being depressed, those loans are been called even if Noble Group (buoyed by liquidity in 2015) never missed a payment because the market says that Noble’s assets are worth less than they claim on their books.
Banks are requiring at least 1.6 B$ more in additional collateral that Noble Group hasn’t built over the good commodity years… Noble is being placed into either bankruptcy or they are been place in a tremendous economics adversity that so far they've not seen in 2015.
People have been hopeful that Noble might avoid a rating downgrade after the asset sale but it couldn’t,” said a Hong Kong-based credit trader at a Japanese investment bank.
Noble's move to raise US$750 million by selling its remaining stake in Noble Agri. I repeat what have said earlier in a previous comment: Noble Agri Sale was strictly a Collateral margin call.
Noble Group must raise money but their collateral base is new book value of 4,528 million while their Net Positive fair values gains of commodity contracts and derivatives exceeds MTM is over 4,500 million…

* Moody’s Global Credit Research - https://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-downgrades-Noble-Group-to-Ba1-outlook-negative--PR_341857


By any model, this MTM represents between 90% and 105% of their book value.

Banks aren’t provided with the access of the exact breakout of the 4,500 million and PwC has not been able to review the exact assumptions and models behind these Net Positive fair values gains of commodity contracts and derivatives. Perhaps, Antoine Lavoisier, French nobleman of the 18th century and father of modern chemistry must have a great influence on the financial reporting of Asia’s Largest Commodity trader with "Nothing is lost, nothing is created, and everything is transformed".


Solvency Problem, not liquidity
I will make it clear that it is not Liquidity that banks are asking but for more Collateral from Noble starting this year because they also understand that this MTM gain on commodity contracts and derivatives of Noble will unlikely be realized at more than 10% and therefore is not valid collateral for the trader’s working capital borrowing base requirements.
A close friend hedgie in NY recalled me that at the height of 07', a IB sale desk lured them into "taking a position into undervalued trading books of the bank temporarily mispriced because of market illiquidity". At only 66cents on the Dollar, the deal turned-out to be 0.6 cent sinky.


http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-01-02/noble-group%E2%80%99s-collateral-margin-call
03/01/2016 16:39
tradax 来宝危机:昔日亚洲第一大商品贸易商“命悬一线”

文 / 祁月 2016年01月03日 18:40:24 14
昔日亚洲最大大宗商品贸易商来宝集团(Noble Group),如今已沦落为“垃圾级”公司。

穆迪上周二将来宝集团信用评级由最低评级Baa3下调至Ba1,降至垃圾级,违约风险高达70%,前景展望为负。标准普尔上个月也将来宝集团的长期企业信用评级降为BBB-,距垃圾级仅一线之隔。如今,来宝集团已经站上破产的悬崖边缘。

在一些小公司出现违约后,大宗商品价格暴跌对来宝、嘉能可(Glencore)、英美资源(Anglo American)等大宗商品贸易巨头的冲击也相继浮出水面。继嘉能可暂时躲过破产霉运之后,来宝集团拿到了这根“黑色接力棒”。

对于来宝集团来说,头号风险是宏观风险。

尽管来宝集团被降级令人担忧,但这背后反映出的是大宗商品市场的颓靡,更是一种价格下行的趋势演变。据美国财经资讯网站jacquessimon506.wordpress,Banque Cantonale Vaudoise交易部门负责人Sacha Duparc认为,第一轮负面效应反映在宏观经济指标上(比如资本开支下滑)。第一轮负面效应将是大宗商品出口商对政策的反应。这些效应将主导2016年的市场。

第二个风险来自于追加保证金

贸易商们拥有几十亿美元大宗商品预付款。过去一年,由于大宗商品价格大幅下挫,贸易商们用以进行大宗商品贸易融资抵押的库存和应收账款价值录得大笔损失。

同样地,来宝集团用以融资的现货大宗商品抵押物的价值也出现了下跌。即使从未出现不按时偿贷的情况,来宝集团也被一些债权人要求偿还贷款,因为他们认为自己持有的抵押品价值已经没有当初放贷时那么高了。

jacquessimon506.wordpress网站报道称,按照银行的要求,来宝集团需要补增额外的至少价值16亿美元的抵押品,而来宝集团现在却拿不出来。来宝集团极为依赖银行为其主营业务融资。

来宝集团此前出售资产的举动并未能令其避免评级被下调的噩运。来宝集团12月宣布将旗下来宝农业(Noble Agri)51%的股份以7.5亿美元出售给中粮集团。从某种角度来说,这笔交易就是为了避免被降级,但事实证明,此举于事无补。

据《华尔街日报》,来宝集团早前表示,降级将触发1亿至2亿美元的追加保证金要求。尽管这些数额被来宝集团称为“微不足道”的,但是,2亿美元相当于在剥离农业资产之后来宝集团可用现金余额的12%。

据jacquessimon506.wordpress,来宝集团必须筹集资金,但他们的抵押品是建立在45.28亿美元的新的账面价值基础上的,而该公司将大宗商品期货及衍生品合约的公允价值收益直接入账的金额就超过了45亿美元。以任何金融模型来看,这些逐日盯市价值都占到了新的账面价值的90%到105%之间。

此前,来宝集团就被研究公司Iceberg Research指出其夸大商品合约及期货的公允价值,这些公允价值的盈余并没有转化为实际现金盈利。

noble chart 1_0

对于来宝集团这45亿美元公允价值出现损失的假设情况,银行并不提供精准的估算。普华永道无法对这些商品合约及衍生品合同的净公允价值背后的模型和假设开展评估。(下图为截止2015年三季度末,来宝集团未实现的大宗商品期货及衍生品合约公允价值收益)

noble bv share.bmp__0

来宝集团面临的财务困境还不止于此。该公司在截至9月30日的三个月期间净利润同比下降84%,至2470万美元。根据穆迪的数据,9月底来宝集团经调整后的净债务为42亿美元,是其息税折旧及摊销前利润(EBITDA)的3.6倍,经营现金流是负值。来宝在未来12个月有近30亿美元的短期债务必须偿还或再融资。

也就是说,来宝集团被逼到了破产边缘,或者说正深陷自2015年以来未曾面临过的巨大困境当中。

来宝集团面临的是偿债问题,而非流动性

银行从要求来宝集团追加的并非流动性,而是更多抵押品。因为他们明白,这些大宗商品期货和衍生品合约产生的浮盈能兑现的比例不大可能超过10%,因此,它们并不是有效的抵押品。

理论上,在资产价格上升时期,这类公允价值的盈余在合约结算或到期交割后转换成实际的现金盈利,但反之则反。

安然式财务会计信任危机

华尔街见闻提及,一家不知名的研究公司Iceberg Research在2015年2月发布研究报告称,来宝集团存在会计问题,存在财务造假、夸大利润的嫌疑,随后,美国浑水公司(Muddy Waters)也公开质疑来宝集团的财务实力,致使来宝股价承压,累计跌去2/3,成为新加坡海峡时报指数中年度跌幅最大的成分股。而在2015年8月份,普华永道则认为来宝的财报没有问题。

NOBLE GROUP

来宝拥有澳大利亚上市矿业公司Yancoal 13%的股份,后者市值约9500万美元,来宝所持股份大概价值1200万美元。然而,在2014财年报告中,来宝将Yancoal股份的账面价值计入为3.2亿美元。

今年6月,来宝以高达6500万美元的价格将其位于蒙古一个尚未开发的煤矿约5万英亩的待开发区卖给了澳大利亚Guildford煤炭公司,而来宝去年2月份购买时仅花了376万美元。然而,分析师并不认可这一估值,并质疑这笔交易的实际性,称在全球“去煤”的大趋势下,这个煤矿的价值在如此短的时间内翻了十几倍,根本不切实际。

这不禁让人想起著名的安然财务造假丑闻——就在安然集团否认存在会计不当问题之后短短几个月,这家公司就被证实存在会计操纵并轰然倒下了。

而根据Iceberg的表述,来宝手中合约的公允价值已经大大超越其它对手公司,甚至是已经破产的安然公司(Enron)在顶峰时期的3.5倍。

来宝集团成立于1986年,由英国商人艾礼文(Richard Elman)创立,总部位于香港,并在1997年于新加坡上市。

(更多精彩财经资讯,点击这里下载华尔街见闻App)

http://wallstreetcn.com/node/228193
04/01/2016 05:46
tradax Noble Group, Asia’s top commodity trader, has endured short selling attacks from the likes of Muddy Waters LLC and the anonymous Iceburg Research. With its stock value cut by over ¾ on a year over year basis, and bouncing near all-time lows, along comes a new report from Moody’s calling for a “collateral margin call.”

http://www.valuewalk.com/2016/01/noble-group-margin-call/
06/01/2016 08:47
tradax Noble Group's "Margin Call" Part II: The Enron Moment http://wp.me/p3k7lL-40K
14/01/2016 11:13
tradax http://iceberg-research.com/2016/01/07/downgrade-of-noble-group-to-junk-by-credit-agencies/
20/01/2016 22:42
analyst77 Noble Group Faces Banking Stress Test
Noble Group’s fate now is in the hands of its bankers- WSJ
http://www.wsj.com/articles/noble-group-faces-banking-stress-test-1453795853
27/01/2016 09:06
TruthOnly The user Tradax has been spreading unverified and baseless rumours on Noble. He has apologised to Noble for libel...part of letter extracted below.


- The user named “tradax” has unreservedly apologised to Noble and Mr Elman for any damage and/or loss of reputation and/or distress and embarrassment caused to them by these allegations.

- We have also banned the user named “tradax” from our website.

(source: http://www.sharejunction.com/sharejunction/listMessage.htm?topicId=15727&searchString=&msgbdName=Others&topicTitle=Reminder%20-%20Post%20Responsibly)
27/01/2016 23:07
analyst77 Battered Noble Group May Be the 'Bargain of Decade'
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-29/battered-noble-group-is-bargain-of-decade-as-religare-says-buy
02/02/2016 10:36
analyst77 A (Not So) Noble Pursuit
http://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/articles/2016-02-01/a-not-so-noble-pursuit
02/02/2016 10:37

  Sopehara Lim likes this.
 
joseph3333 There is more downside pressure on China Stocks.Samuel Shen and Nathaniel Taplin 17 Mins AgoReuters.

SHANGHAI, Jan 29 (Reuters) - Chinese companies may be forced to sell at least $12 billion in shares in coming weeks to meet margin calls, dealing a further blow to stock markets which have already seen some $2 trillion in value wiped out so far this year.
Some companies that had pledged shares as collateral for loans are now faced with a stark choice - dump them under pressure from impatient brokers and banks and book a loss, or stump up fresh cash or other assets to make up for the difference in value.

If that wasn't enough to dash hopes that China's markets will soon claw back from 14-month lows, fresh selling pressure is coming from mutual funds and hedge funds which are liquidating positions as shell-shocked investors race to withdraw what cash they have left.

High Beta Stocks like Noble and Golden Agri much better.

All that is leading to a vicious cycle where further share price drops are likely to trigger more margin calls and threaten further forced sales.
29/01/2016 19:14

  cc0329617 likes this.
 
Lincorn Matthieu Seven tooo bad bonus issue havent credited

luckily sold all the remaining shares when 1.22-1.24
01/02/2016 10:30
Lincorn Matthieu Seven SGX why no query???
01/02/2016 11:58
Sebastian Sted Power lucky enough sold off 1.24 but still keep bonus issues. Shit!!

Also sold off all malaysia gloves counters last week. Will buy back after the storm
01/02/2016 15:09
Lincorn Matthieu Seven yes! must buy back and keep long term.

Profits taking is alright since many ppl bought when 1.5++ last year
02/02/2016 01:18
Lincorn Matthieu Seven Sebastian, I guess most of your gloves counter bought at low price? So no worry and still earn money
02/02/2016 01:20
Sebastian Sted Power Yes lincorn.

But I will sell it when reach my target price. Profits taking then will buy back if drop

Luckily enough collect some from panic sellers at 99cents
02/02/2016 13:51
Wan_Marissa I agree with you Lincorn. I also bought it and sell on my expected price. To get the best advice on trading we must have to try MMF Solutions Malaysia. Their signals have the highest accuracy.
02/02/2016 14:19
Tan Jeffrey when will the bonus issue come...
03/02/2016 09:32
Tan Jeffrey any idea when is the bonus issue?
05/02/2016 12:32
kng5086 Bonus issue received...
05/02/2016 15:35

  3 people like this.
 
Melaos Wow. What does this means for the company stock?
07/05/2014 12:24
w2go Price this morning at $1.11. Isnt that too high? What is a good price to buy?
Any comments appreciated.
11/06/2014 12:03
Calvin Foo vested
01/07/2015 14:13
bgoon99 at very good bargain...strong financial and market share in banking. Hit by silly report LOL
26/08/2015 10:47
bgoon99 http://razorbuzz2015.blogspot.com/
26/08/2015 11:09
LanSeeBoy bgoon99: You are a Bellend !
30/08/2015 21:45
soon9913 any news for the due d audit on the RPT..?
15/09/2015 12:18
Poh Chye wassup today?
04/11/2015 16:27
Poh Chye cleared from wrong doing (edge sg, 6 Jan 16) still down. haiz
06/01/2016 21:56
omgimnoob Anyone attending today's meeting?
25/01/2016 09:45

  ohy2012 likes this.
 
tengemily SGX discount stock..
02/02/2016 15:04
tengemily no doubt is a Sales discount stock. any price below 2.50 is good to buy for long term. beside stock value, good dividend as well..
03/02/2016 09:49

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zaqwerty Don't forget you may lose all your money.
27/01/2016 14:50
balsig With downside limited due to priced in negatives and interest hikes not expected to be drastic, I think the dividend yield it offers is worth a good look.
31/01/2016 12:35

Posted by balsig at Jan 30, 02:56 PM
  Be the first to like this.
 

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lohkh67 The counter should be CCT (CapitaLand Commercial Trust) not CapitaLand!
25/01/2016 22:05

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foresight good like it is better to buy after xD..now selling for 81
26/08/2013 16:43
Jeff Ling Look like an uptrend..........till dividend payout in Aug.......
05/07/2014 16:23
annachen no update about this counter? this has been uptrend since beginning of the year....and already hit the target price
06/06/2015 10:02
mocics I think this should be a worthwhile investment. Nothing wrong with the company but I heard one of the institutional fund is existing - thus provided the opportunity to buy at this yield
14/12/2015 07:55
KeepMoving still worth buying into this name at 0.60?
24/01/2016 17:26

  2 people like this.
 
sentimentrader Takeover soon?
23/01/2016 09:53

  arshad5858 likes this.
 
alex2012 Rex has a website...come and have a look...

http://rexih.com/
24/10/2014 14:27
alex2012 anybody still around..holding?
06/11/2014 10:26
albertlaw Told u alan the former remisier bought..all his counters tanked..lucky escape
06/11/2014 16:28
clarence_yeo2003 Rex please drop some more ;)
12/11/2014 11:32
stockmarketmind not the time to enter now, timing maybe soon
12/11/2014 19:26
alex2012 can only buy once crude bottom...early 2016...
16/12/2014 13:01
LaoLiu Drop too much...probably will have some technical rebound few days later..
22/07/2015 12:32
ccc5197 is this stock same with hibiscc?
24/12/2015 09:12
ccc5197 this stock die ald
30/12/2015 10:02
alex2012 crude almost bottom...can buy already...
23/01/2016 07:57

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Frant Denner Post removed. Why?
04/04/2014 16:47
superman11 Why sgx in i3investor doesnt have financial technical analysis like klse??
30/05/2014 18:40
PressJustice Rumor businessman from Malaysia Larry Tey Por Yee took a stake of Singtel. Is it true? Check out the mystery investor https://teyporyeetruth.wordpress.com/
08/11/2015 02:36
NotAbel Tan will the fourth Telco... impart further the share prices of Singtel?
21/01/2016 00:19
Y2016 Definitely
21/01/2016 01:29

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sgx_swinger Hours into sgxswinger call, ocbc falls to 972 to bounce as predicted above, closing 980.

while sti fell to 3025 to bounce strong , closing 3059.

for more details , see http://sgxswinger.blogspot.sg/
13/12/2013 00:24
sayandquoteit year end bull is coming, yahoo. please also join us for US, Malaysia etc. markets http://www.i3investor.com/servlets/stk/3508.jsp
16/12/2013 08:43
Feler Sed Post removed. Why?
01/04/2014 17:06
Ced Prenner Post removed. Why?
22/04/2014 14:55
gyaphong any chance to issue rights?
02/06/2014 21:31
BHSL Rights Issue ? Could be. OCBC just restored their previously suspended scrip dividends, it is likely they need more equity to enhance Balance Sheet to accomodate Wing Hang purchase.
03/06/2014 10:12
jamestan2997 how come ocbc sec giving TP 7.26 for ocbc bank ?
24/10/2014 09:34
Y2016 7.26 is coming??
15/01/2016 00:38
NotAbel Tan do u all think OCBC will reduce their dividend payout?
21/01/2016 00:17
Y2016 Possible to reduce slightly if earning drops
21/01/2016 01:27

  Fhyp5328 likes this.
 
Frant Denner Post removed. Why?
04/04/2014 16:44
pnuklis Osim shares are scrueeeeeeeeeeeed today
18/06/2014 19:51
Yauboon 2nd quarter profit up another 13%
31/07/2014 20:28
pnuklis holding on nice and firm
04/08/2014 19:45
reverrrrrr Post removed. Why?
05/08/2014 16:00
pnuklis With so much cash in hand what is Ron Sim up to? Will b interesting to watch who takes up the zero bonds? The market has hammered them for that and this move was not necessary.
30/08/2014 08:06
genesis osim keeps dropping these wks, what's happening? kinda scary despite i am vested small/long
29/09/2014 10:09
LaoLiu Good time to buy, gonna move up higher.
18/12/2015 15:17
Calvin Foo what's the reason for today's fall in price?
20/01/2016 15:12
Calvin Foo investors losing confidence in this company? China slowing down....affecting luxury products?
20/01/2016 15:13

  11 people like this.
 
JQ96 Hi Velson, Genting Sing hardly give out dividend.
14/12/2015 09:27
Wow123 Macau casino also decreasing vip
22/12/2015 22:04
Wow123 sell
22/12/2015 22:09
SyedIbrahim It's buy call for all investors
09/01/2016 00:07
kinfatt999 sands sg better than genting sg
09/01/2016 11:03
Wow123 sell sell
11/01/2016 09:59
Wow123 sell sell again
18/01/2016 09:37
Wow123 25 sen worth
18/01/2016 09:38
Wow123 sell sell better
20/01/2016 10:13
Wow123 don't wait sell asap
20/01/2016 11:08

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dusti Biz background needs updating. When done this may interest other investors to this progressive company.
24/04/2014 10:20
yamiyugi why recently it is in a up trend? anyone knows?
05/05/2014 17:44
berry workers Accommodation business is expanding. Good prospect.
05/05/2014 21:13
berry dividend x date on 6 May
05/05/2014 21:21
KingPro how is this shares again?>
27/01/2015 12:28
Wolverin3 Good Counter with good earnings potential. Fantastic!
30/01/2015 09:44
nakkata high debt
29/07/2015 23:37
ryan_och why up?
19/01/2016 17:56

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steve84 Let's start comment here!
09/07/2013 15:33
TomYam Suntec REIT – Will It End The Strong Rebound?

From the weekly chart, we can clearly see that Suntec REIT has been in a downtrend over the past two month.

Generally, it is relatively safe to sit on the short side. For the past two weeks, Suntec REIT rebounded strongly without any deep pullback. It will be relatively safe to short on rebound when bulls used up their energy.

Despite Suntec REIT went up yesterday, it was not able to hold at high end when the market closed. This indicates that sellers may start to control this stock for the next few days. One may consider shorting if it rebounds to around 50 percent Fibonacci retracement level.
10/07/2013 11:50
steve84 TomYam- nice comment! Thanks
19/07/2013 14:09
Frant Denner Post removed. Why?
04/04/2014 16:49
juzzdoo This is not for you to place your ads! Sell your elsewhere!
14/05/2014 09:49
notlie Why suntec reit shot up today?
07/11/2014 10:36
weiboy90 Suntec Reit will be included in the MSCI Singapore Index @ SiMSCI, replacing Olam International. effective date is on 26th Nov.
20/11/2014 20:56
chezball This reit has done well for me but i think they are facing a lot of headwinds on the retail front. Do see my qualitaive assessment of this counter after I have attended the AGM.

http://wealthdirections.asia/denied-entry-to-suntec-reit-agm/
09/05/2015 18:37
Alvin So when can it back to 2 dollars :(
11/01/2016 16:41
nicholasnwh90 Support at $1.5.
15/01/2016 23:42

  2 people like this.
 
Frant Denner Post removed. Why?
04/04/2014 16:48
Ced Prenner Post removed. Why?
22/04/2014 14:48
cfoong kikikikiki... good to buy at this price... not easy to go until this level... buy buy buy! yield also terrific at this level...
27/01/2015 14:28
cfoong I have been waiting for few yrs...and it comes down to this level again...!!!! kikikikikikiki...
27/01/2015 14:42
dyuen drop some more ??
31/07/2015 15:20
ccc5197 wow why so big drop?
07/01/2016 17:14
ccc5197 wow big drop again
11/01/2016 13:22
nicholasnwh90 Dropped with much volume. Gotta wait for rebounding sign.
12/01/2016 18:35
ccc5197 this is blue chip counter,drop more then can buy
14/01/2016 10:04
nicholasnwh90 Now seem good to buy. Just need to wait for the selling pressure to ease and rebounding sign. Keppel is index-linked and hence will be affected by the macro market.
15/01/2016 23:36

  Sia Ho Yuan likes this.
 
NotAbel Tan OCBC still dropping excessive ....
15/01/2016 15:20

  Be the first to like this.
 
LaoLiu Time to watch on this counter..
20/07/2015 11:09
rikuyaya why say so?
03/08/2015 13:44
Old90 *Sinochem Group, China’s biggest seller of seeds and fertilizer, is in advanced talks to buy natural-rubber supply-chain manager Halcyon Agri Corp. in a deal valued at about $300 million, people with knowledge of the deal said. Halcyon has a market capitalization of about $260 million.
*A deal could be completed by end of this month, one of the people said.
14/01/2016 12:03


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