THE SINGAPOREAN INVESTOR

Jun Yuan's 2024 Year in Review

ljunyuan
Publish date: Thu, 05 Dec 2024, 09:30 AM
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My name is Jun Yuan, and I am the owner of The Singaporean Investor. I am a full-time retail investor and trader since April 2017, and in this website, I'd be sharing with you my personal analyses of Singapore-listed companies, along with advices relating to investing, as well as trading. You can find out more about me here, and check out my long-term portfolio here.
Jun Yuan's 2024 Year in Review

2024 is coming to an end in another 3+ weeks. It has been an extremely busy year, but at the same time, a very fulfilling one for me. I hope the year has been a fruitful one for you as well.

Just like in the previous years, there are 'hits', as well as 'misses', and in this final post of 2024 (I will be going on a family holiday to France and Switzerland next Thursday, 12 December [at the same time celebrating my 15th year wedding anniversary with my wife a day after]. While I will be returning in Singapore on 30 December [just in time to countdown to 2025], but I will only be back at work on 2nd January 2025), I will be sharing with you my thoughts on a number of things – my book writing journey, stance on dividend investing, EC World REIT, 'Equities Digest' and YouTube channel initiatives, being a guest contributor at The Smart Investor, a lack of material progress on the rebuilding of my US investment portfolio, how my meetings with companies' managements expanded my worldview, journey as a financial blogger so far, and last but not least, my outlook for 2025 ahead (as far as markets in Singapore and in the US are concerned).

Unlike my other postings throughout the year (where they are all company reviews), I will be talking about how I really feel deep down as a result of many things that happened this year (those who I am very close with will know some of the nastiest things that happened to me [and I must say, to some level, I was emotionally affected by some of them]. Without mentioning names, I am deeply grateful for all the advices and encouragement given to me to keep me going):

'building Your REIT-irement portfolio' Finally Made its Way to the Local Bookstores

If you ask me what is one thing I'm most proud of this year, this will be it.

I still remember that day – it was some time in April, when I refreshed my email inbox late in the evening (around 10.30pm or so), and saw an email from the CEO of AcePremier (a book publishing company in Malaysia) offering to publish my book. I was down with a bad sore throat that day, but somehow I ended up going into an impromptu call with him to discuss about the details till past midnight! (Regardless of how uncomfortable I was that evening because of my bad throat, I knew I had to make this call as I just cannot pass on this golden opportunity!)

The book was finally printed, and distributed to Books Kinokuniya in mid-May, and immediately when the books were found on the bookshelf, I made my way down to have a look at it:

Feels Surreal that I’m Actually Holding My Own Book Being Sold in a Local Bookstore

No words can describe how proud I feel about this, and at the same time, extremely grateful for the opportunity to make this dream of mine come true. Some more, the book was made available just before my birthday – so in a way, it was like a 'birthday gift' from the book publisher, AcePremier!

For those who like to check out the book on Books Kinokuniya, you can do so here.

My Stance on Dividend Investing

One incident that remained vivid in my mind was an interview I've done to talk about my dividend investment journey, and discussions that followed after the video was published, and a followup video to discuss about this without me in it (those who have followed my posts will know which video I was referring to).

On this, there are 2 things I like to share here:

First, as far as investing is concerned, as with everything else, there's no 'one size fits all'. It very much depends on what one will want from his/her investing efforts. For me, it was very clear that I wanted some stable income on top of income that I get from my swing trading activities (yes, I'm also a swing trader where I trade stocks in the Singapore and US markets – I didn't talk about my trading journey on this blog as the focus is on long-term investing). Why REITs is because they offer a stable stream of income on a regular basis. Also, at the prices I invest in them, the yields are at acceptable levels (at least for me) – in case you're wondering, my entire investment portfolio has a yield of about 6.3% based on dividends I received in 2023 (I'm not sure about you, but I think there are very little investments out there that can produce a yield like this, apart from the really risky ones).

Second, on the non-disclosure of income. The reason is because it has no educational significance. One common question I get is, 'how much do I need to be considered financially independent?' – again, there's no 'one size fits all' answer. It really depends on the type of lifestyle you want to lead. For example, a dividend portfolio that generates $3,000 may be enough for one who is happy with a frugal life (staying in a 3- or 4-room HDB that's fully paid off and no intentions of upgrading, completely fine with eating home cooked meals 7-days a week, and not going on any overseas vacations). However, this amount is definitely insufficient for those who is aspires to upgrade his/her home once every few years, dine in posh restaurants, and go for overseas holidays at least twice a year – you get my point. With that in mind, my best answer to this question is to first calculate your average spending in a year, and from there, build your investment portfolio that can support your lifestyle (do remember that the journey to build an investment portfolio that will allow you to become financially independent takes an average of 10-15 years).

EC World REIT

Among the 12 Singapore-listed companies (9 REITs, and 3 banks – you can check out the full list of companies I have investments in here) I am invested in, this is my biggest disappointment. Again, people who know me well will know how much time I have spent to engage with the management to understand the situation (one of the reasons why I remained invested when many told me to 'abandon ship' was because I had faith in the management to get things right on track after speaking to them in-person).

Why I have decided to continue to review its quarterly results and provide any latest material updates about it is for the following reasons:

First, I want to be very transparent about my journey, and want readers to be cognisant of the fact that when it comes to investing, despite the amount researches done prior to committing to it, it may still turn sour. One way to go around this issue is to have a diversified investment portfolio – this is so that should 1-2 investments not pan out the way you hope it will (even the Oracle of Omaha, Warren Buffett, have some investments that didn't turn out well), at least you will not suffer from crushing losses. Thankfully for me, the weightage of EC World REIT in my portfolio is only about 5+%, and after writing off this investment, my overall investment portfolio is still generating a positive unrealised return.

Second, I have spoken to a number of fellow investors of the REIT, where they shared with me they have invested huge amounts of money in it (upwards of half a million to one million Singapore dollars), and when I shared with them of the possibility of the REIT being liquidated, they were at a loss of what to do (for some, its their retirement funds they are investing). When I heard about this, personally, I'm at a loss for words and deep down, I really feel for them (its like whenever I hear about someone's loved one have passed on, I don't know what I can say or do, other than to offer my deepest condolences and a helping hand if they need one). This is the reason why I have continued to provide quarterly updates – so that they can continue to be updated. I sure hope that trading will somehow resume for the REIT, so at least they will be able to get back some money, instead of having to realise a total loss.

Moving forward, I will continue to post material updates on this blog, and try to answer questions you may have as best as I can.

Closure of the 'Equities Digest'

The 'Equities Digest' was an initiative I started exactly a year ago to keep the investment community (especially those who do not have the time to read the news reports for various reasons) updated on the latest that happened in the Singapore and US markets.

I started this off by providing weekly updates, but because of the sheer length of it, I decided to post it on a daily basis.

However, as this was done manually, it was extremely time consuming. This was especially so during the earnings season, where I sometimes have to work till midnight, or even pass it, just to have the summaries compiled and posted the following morning before 10am Singapore time.

While I have benefitted immensely from all the compiling (because I will first need to understand what the news article is all about before I can summarise them), but the amount of time spent on it means that I was unable to work on other stuffs (particularly in-depth company researches, where progress on this front had been really slow this year). Hence, I had no choice but to discontinue it (it's the first "baby" of mine that I had to "kill".)

Of course, if time permits in the future, I'd definitely reconsider bringing it back.

YouTube Channel

I started this initiative shortly after the REITs Symposium in May – where there's a number of fellow event attendees who approached and asked me to start one.

Being someone who is not very well-versed in English (guess what? I used to fail my English exams during my Primary and Secondary school days), it was definitely a challenge, but one that I'm still trying my best to improve on with every single video that I produce.

One thing I can say – its extremely time consuming to create a video as I had to do all the work myself – from doing up the slides, to preparing what to say, transcribing the video thereafter (for information, all my videos have subtitles added in manually for the benefit of those who do not have their sound turned on [I'm one of those who don't turn on the sound whenever I watch YouTube videos, as most of the time when I watch them, I'm outside and do not have my AirPods with me], they can read the subtitles).

For those who have subscribed, thank you, and I really hope you have found the uploads useful. If you haven't done so and would like to check my YouTube channel out, you can do so here.

Finally, for those of you who are wondering if I'm working towards becoming a YouTuber, the answer is no. I started this channel merely to provide another avenue to reach out to fellow Singaporean investors to help them learn more about the various Singapore and US-listed companies (on this front, I'm looking to discuss more about US-listed companies in 2025) to have a better understanding about them in terms of their strengths and weaknesses (just like human beings, we all have our fair share of strengths and weaknesses as well), and as a result, be able to make more informed investment decisions.

Guest Contributor at The Smart Investor

Some of you may not know it still, but The Smart Investor was founded by the same group of people who ran The Motley Fool Singapore – speaking of which, it was where I learned the basics of investing from (where I have read every. single. article. in the entire website to learn the nuts and bolts about investing, as well as to have a better understanding about some of the listed companies in Singapore).

It was also through this site that I learned the aspects they looked at when they review a company, and when I first started writing my analysis about companies, I received feedback from some that my style of writing was very similar to theirs!

Back when I was very new to being an financial blogger, I had a 'dream' of being able to write on their website – and this 'dream' was realised when I received an email from Chin in April where he asked if I was keen on contributing to their site.

Till date, I have written one article per month (with the first article published just days before my birthday in May, and I consider it as another big present), and for those of you who have missed out, you can find them via the respective links below:

Throughout the last half a year or so, I have learned great deal from both Chin and Royston (they are really experienced investors) in terms of how to write professionally (in a format you see for the articles published on The Business Times), as well as through discussions we have about individual companies. On that note, I'd like to take this opportunity to say a big thank you to them for the opportunity.

Lack of Material Progress in Efforts to Rebuild My US Portfolio

While seeing my REIT book published was the biggest achievement for the year, the lack of material progress to rebuild my US investment portfolio was my biggest disappointment in 2024.

It was something I aimed to work on since the start of the year, but because of other work commitments, progress on this front had been slow.

The number of posts I have published on the US market has also been comparatively lesser compared to the year before. For that, I'd like to apologise to my followers from outside of Singapore who have followed my blog because of my contents on the US market. I will definitely improve on this in 2025.

Opportunity to Look at Things from the Lens of the Management

Before I begin talking about this point, I would like to clarify that all the posts which I've published after meeting up with the listed companies' management are purely out of my own free will (there's absolutely no requirement on their side for me to write about them). I'm doing this merely to share what I have learned with the investment community so more can benefit and get a better understanding about the respective companies.

As a retail investor myself, I am standing on the side of fellow retail investors, and use opportunities like this to bring up any concerns to them (I always try to gather them prior to meeting up with the management).

At the same time, through my conversations with them, I also understood why certain things are being done, and what goes through their thought processes prior to making any formal announcements (whether is it to announce acquisitions, asset enhancement initiatives, divestments, rights issues, etc.) I also gained a much better insight and understanding of the individual companies.

For the managements I have met this year, I would like to say a big thank you for your invitation, as well as for your time to explain to me about your company, and listen to concerns that retail investors have. I certainly look forward to more of such meetings in the coming year ahead.

My Journey as a Financial Blogger So Far

Why I have started 'The Singaporean Investor' some 5 years ago was because of a struggle that I had – where back then, there were very resources dedicated to the Singapore market and, many of the blogs tend to be quite 'one-sided' in terms of company reviews (where the articles tend to focus on just the strengths for companies which the author have investments in, and weaknesses for companies they don't).

With that in mind, I decided to start this blog to share unbiased reviews of companies – for every single one of them have their fair share of strengths and weaknesses; as retail investors, its important that, prior to making any investment decisions, we don't just focus on the potential upsides, but at the same time, be aware of the potential risks.

It is also because of this insistence that I have rejected any deals that require me to post biased views, regardless of the renumeration (some are worth upwards of 3- or even 4-digits). Moving forward, it will continue to be this way (I even told my wife to let me know the day when I start to become bias, and I will close down this entire blog).

Another thing to share is on a news article a few weeks ago on the possible 'regulation' on finfluencers by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. On that note, a few things I would like to clarify:

First and foremost, I don't classify myself as a 'finfluener', and I never want to be one.

Secondly, all my articles are unbiased (where, in all my company reviews, I share the strengths as well as weaknesses about them, and give no buy or sell recommendations).

Thirdly, I have stated in my disclaimer (which can be found in the 'disclaimer' page [you can read it in full here], as well as at the end of every article where I talk about companies that the contents are for educational purposes only, and readers should always do their own due diligence prior to making any investment decisions.

Fourthly, for any articles which I am being remunerated, I have it very clearly stated (even for those articles, I will make sure that they are unbiased).

Until the day when the law is passed that deem that I am no longer able to do the things I have been doing for the past 5 years or so to share what I have learned with the investing community (even so, you can be sure I will fight vigorously against it), I will continue to do my best to share my research findings about individual companies.

My Outlook for 2025 Ahead (for the Singapore and US Markets)

With Trump officially returning to the White House on 20 January 2025 to begin his new 4-year term, I am of the opinion that it will be a bumpy year for the markets ahead.

In my opinion, very much will depend on whether he will impose those tariffs on imports coming from countries like Canada and Mexico, Europe, as well as China. If so, we will likely see inflation rebound, leading to the US Federal Reserve further trimming on the number of interest rate cuts (we have already seen expectations trimmed from 4 times to just 3 times in 2025). We may also need to prepare for the scenario where inflation jumps by too much such that interest rates may be hiked again (although the possibility of this happening is still quite low at this point in time).

Of course, that will have a negative impact (to a certain extent) on REITs, as well as companies that are reliant on bank borrowings to grow. While we may see some growth in 2025 (as benchmark borrowing rates at this point in time have already been cut by 0.75%, and we have already seen announcements on acquisitions in recent months). However, depending on what Trump may do, we may see the management preferring to err on the side of caution by not embarking on aggressive acquisitions.

As far as the stock markets of Singapore and the US are concerned, just like what we have seen when Trump was the President the first time round, movements are likely to be volatile. However, as long-term investors, it's important that we do not let the stock market volatility freak us out. Rather, we should make use of it to invest in fundamentally sound companies at hugely discounted prices (just like how we add things we like to our online shopping cart, and wait for discounts to come prior to making our purchases). The same goes for how we should approach our investments – we should use this time to study and get a good understanding of companies, and for those that pass our investment criteria, add them to our watchlist, and wait for 'Mr Market' to offer a discount prior to adding them to your investment portfolio.

With that, I have come to the end of my post. I know it has been a very long one. For those who have been reading it from the start till this point, thank you for reading, as well as for your continued support in all of my posts and videos this year. I will continue to do my best in 2025 ahead.

The post Jun Yuan's 2024 Year in Review first appeared on The Singaporean Investor.

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