Operating metrics generally surpassed 2019’s levels despite the pandemic.
Made accretive acquisitions and AEIs, demonstrating its commitment to grow.
Reiterate ADD. Lower cost of funding to pave way for accretive acquisitions.
Reiterate ADD on ESR-REIT With a Higher DDM-based Target Price
ESR-REIT's share price has appreciated by ~18% year-to-date, driven by accretive acquisitions, divestments, and inclusion into FTSE EPRA Nareit Index. However, we think there is more upside driven by improvements in operating metrics, income contributions from acquisitions/AEIs and narrowing valuation gap with its peers.
ESR-REIT (SGX:J91U)’s FY22 DPU yield of > 6% remains attractive. We reduce our FY21-23 by 0.4% to 3.2% mainly factoring divestment and delay in AEI. Our target price for ESR-REIT is however raised to S$0.538 (COE from 7.3% to 7.1%), still implies an attractive DPU yield of 5.8% to factor in a premium for its inclusion into FTSE EPRA Nareit Index. Weaker rental reversion would serve as a downside risk.
Healthy Operating and Financial Performance Despite Pandemic
Despite the pandemic, ESR-REIT’s 1H21 occupancy rate, lease secured (sf) and tenant retention income for the rest of 2021 given its diversified portfolio.
Acquisitions and AEIs to Boost Income
Despite ESR-REIT’s relatively higher Tai Seng Street and 7000 AMK. 19 Tai Seng which is under conversion from a general industrial to a high-specs property will be completed around 3Q21 and has seen good 63% committed occupancy. These AEIs are expected to generate a good 7% yield (S$6.2m/3.8% of FY20 NPI) on cost on a stabilised basis.
Lower Cost of Funding to Pave Way for More Accretive Acquisitions
ESR-REIT is trading at 6.4-6.6% FY21/22 DPU yield vs 7.5-9% in Mar 20-Jun 21. Its cost of borrowing has also declined from 3.9% in 2019 to 3.2% in 1H21. We understand that there is still room for lower cost of debt while the inclusion into the FTSE EPRA Nareit index would also potentially further lower its cost of capital.
With the lower cost of funding. ESR-REIT will be in a better position to make accretive acquisitions.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....