ST Engineering’s 9M22 revenue of S$6.5bn was in line, accounting for 74% of our 2022 estimate. It reported strong order wins in 3Q22, with an outstanding order book (excluding the US marine business) of S$23.1bn at an all-time high. TransCore’s latest contract delivery is expected to start in 2024.
Despite some concerns about higher interest costs, we continue to like ST Engineering for its strong revenue visibility and a defensive dividend outlook. We expect it to deliver a 8% profit CAGR in 2022–2024F.
All ST Engineering's Business Segments Reported Y-o-y Growth
ST Engineering (SGX:S63) reported 3Q22 revenue of S$2.2bn (+22% y-o-y, unchanged q-o-q). On a y-o-y basis, all businesses reported revenue growth:
Commercial Aerospace (CA) (+28% y-o-y),
Urban Solutions & Satcomm (USS) (+74% y-o-y), and
Defence & Public Security (DPS) (+5% y-o-y).
However, on a q-o-q basis, growth in CA revenue (+6% q-o-q) was offset by lower USS (-2% q-o-q) and DPS (-3% q-o-q) revenue. CA revenue growth was driven by higher demand for nacelle deliveries, MRO services, and passenger-to-freighter (PTF) conversions.
ST Engineering’s PTF conversion slots are booked until 2025-2026 but the rate of growth is expected to slow down in the near term.
Strong Order Wins
ST Engineering reported S$4.8bn (+163% y-o-y, +56% q-o-q) of order wins in 3Q22. Excluding S$1.9bn in orders related to ST Engineering's US marine business, which it intends to divest, the company's outstanding order book stood at an all-time high of S$23.1bn, providing over two years of revenue visibility.
Urban Solutions & Satcomm (USS) reported S$2.0bn (+424% y-o-y, +388% q-o-q) of order wins, followed by S$1.8bn (+336% y-o-y, +25% q-o-q) by Defence & Public Security (DPS) and S$1.0bn (-3% y-o-y, -18% q-o-q) by Commercial Aerospace (CA).
Capital Optimisation Plans
ST Engineering reported a gross debt of S$6.8bn as at end-3Q22, of which 46% (S$3.1bn) was based on floating rates. The q-o-q increase in debt was attributed to an increase in the aviation asset business and the US$'s appreciation vs S$. ST Engineering intends to term out US$500m-700m of its floating rate debt via longer-term fixed coupon bonds or loans.
ST Engineering shared that it would look at securitising several hundred million (~S$500m) worth of aviation assets in the next few months to pare down its debt. It will also continue to optimise its net working capital and divest non-core businesses.
Steady Dividend Outlook
ST Engineering declared a quarterly dividend per share of 4 cents.
We continue to derive our target price for ST Engineering using an average of P/E, P/BV, EV/EBITDA, and DCF. The target price includes an 8% ESG premium over the fair value of S$3.85.
Maintain BUY recommendation on ST Engineering with S$4.15 target price, 19% upside, with ~4% FY23F yield.
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