• On Aug 29, the STI climbed back above 3,400 and stayed above this level for the next 9 sessions, closing above 3,500 on Sep 10, and closing at 3,531.17 on Sep 11. During the past 9 sessions, the broader Singapore stock market booked S$763 million of net institutional inflow, reversing over 50% of the net outflow for the year up to Aug 29. 
   
• Financial Services have led the recent surge in net institutional inflow, followed by Telecommunications, S-REITs, Utilities and Industrials. Actively traded stocks that booked the highest net institutional inflow proportionate to market cap over the 9 sessions included Seatrium, Sembcorp Industries, SGX, Suntec REIT & ComfortDelGro.
   
• During the 9 sessions, the STI was led by SGX gaining 9.2%, Seatrium gaining 9.0%, followed by Singtel gaining 8.9%, Over the period, the USD/SGD has also consolidated between 1.30 and 1.31, with ASEAN benchmarks also up 2% bucking broader 2% to 3% declines in the region and globe.
   

The STI has gained 3.7% since returning above 3,400 on Aug 29, closing above 3,500, at 3,512.67 on Sep 10 and again at 3,531.17 on Sep 11. This has marginally outpaced the FTSE ASEAN All-Share Index which has gained 2.2% in SGD terms, while the FTSE All-World Index has declined 1.5% and the FTSE APAC Index declined 2.9%. This has brought the STI total return in 2024 year to Sep 11 to 14.3%. Historical STI highs include 3,641.65 in May 2018 and 3,906.16 in October 2007 (prior to the January 2008 STI revamp).

In recent weeks, expectations for a smooth economic landing in the US have strengthened with market participants certain the Federal Reserve will reduce interest rates on Sep 18. Meanwhile, most ASEAN economies have reported moderate growth acceleration in 2Q24, bucking the marginal conflation seen globally. This has supported the appreciation of ASEAN currencies against the declining US Dollar, with the USD/SGD consolidating between 1.31 and 1.30, down from 1.35 and 1.36 at the end of 1Q24 and 2Q24. Note that Fed Fund Futures are pricing in up to 100 bps increase in the Fed Funds Rate over the next three FOMCs. While this may reflect significant  speculative and hedging activity, it also indicates the potential risk of cross-asset volatility heading into 2025. 

Trading activity in local equities-linked securities has also notched higher over the past fortnight. The average daily turnover (ADT) for the two STI ETFs so far this month is at the highest monthly level since June 2022. In the first week of September, Structured Warrants and Daily Leverage Certificates linked to Singapore stocks and Indices on average saw turnover notched a third higher than the preceding week. 

Since returning above 3,400 on Aug 29, institutions have booked S$763 million of net institutional inflow into Singapore stocks, reversing more than half of the net outflow of the S$1.303 billion net outflow in the 2024 year to Aug 29. This coincided with the STI gaining 3.7%. Comparatively, from the session before the STI broke above 3,400 on July 3 to its close at 3,499.89 on July 15, the STI gained 3.9%, with the broader market recording S$378 million in net institutional inflow.

Financial Services have led the recent surge in net institutional inflow, followed by Telecommunications, S-REITs, Utilities and Industrials. The 20 stocks that booked the highest net institutional inflow over since Aug 29 are tabled below.

Data as of 11 Sep 2024. Source SGX. Note ADT refers to Average Daily Trading Turnover; NIF refers to Net Institutional Inflow

Among the 100 most actively traded stocks, those with the highest net institutional inflow from Aug 29 to Sep 11, proportionate to market capitalisation are tabled below.

Data as of 11 Sep 2024. Source SGX. Note ADT refers to Average Daily Trading Turnover; NIF refers to Net Institutional Inflow

Looking forward, the MAS Survey of Professional Forecasters: September 2024 revealed a slowdown in external growth was the most cited downside risk 25 economists and analysts who closely monitor the Singapore economy. Respondents also highlighted spillovers from geopolitical tensions (which include higher US tariffs) and weaker growth in China. On the upside, 73% of respondents identified better-than-expected external growth as a key positive factor (up from 64% in June), along with stronger growth in China and a faster-than-expected tech cycle recovery. 

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