• Revenue and EBITDA were in line with expectations at 101%/102% of our FY22e estimates. 4Q22 revenue growth of 23% was supported by mobile and broadband acquisition. EBITDA halved due to DARE+ transformation and one-off expenses. FY22 dividends are down 22% YoY to 5 cents.
• Guidance is for another weak year of EBITDA margins for FY23. Service EBITDA margins to be maintained at 20% with revenue growth of 8-10%.
• Around 35% or S$75mn of the planned S$310mn DARE+ has been spent. From the remaining S$235mn to be spent, we expect S$180mn to be used in FY23e. Bulk of the DARE+ transformation cost is in EPL content and IT software and services. We maintain FY23e revenue but lowered EBITDA by 4%. Our target price lowered to S$1.08 (prev. S$1.15), pegged at 6.5x FY22e EV/EBITDA, in line with other mobile peers. We downgrade our recommendation to NEUTRAL. We do not find the dividend yield attractive as investors weather another year of weak earnings.

Source: Company, PSR

The Positive

+ Strength in mobile revenue. 4Q22 mobile revenue growth accelerated 13% YoY. Growth rates not seen since FY05. Revenue growth was driven by both ARPU and subscriber growth. Re-opening of borders continues to bolster roaming revenue and lift ARPU. Postpaid net adds were 19k (3Q22: +26k) and market share has widened by 0.9% points over the past 12 months to 23.4%.

The Negatives

– 4Q22 operating expenses outpacing revenue. Operating expenses jumped 35% YoY to S$667mn. Excluding the S$30.8mn non-current, the rise will still be high at 29% YoY. Types of cost that outpaced revenue were repairs and maintenance, marketing and Pay TV content cost.

– Drop in dividends. FY22 dividend was down 22% to 5 cents. FY23e dividends guidance is unchanged, a payout of at least 5 cents. With CAPEX to sales ratio expected to double from 7.3% in FY22 to between 13-15% in FY23e, there is little upside in dividends.

Source: Phillip Capital Research - 9 Feb 2023