Towards Financial Freedom

DBSV S'pore Wired Daily 4 November 2013

kiasutrader
Publish date: Mon, 04 Nov 2013, 10:16 AM
Today's Focus
Mapletree Greater China Commercial Trust - Downgrade to HOLD, limited upside to $0.97 TP

We have less than two weeks to go before the results reporting season ends. So far the results reported have been uninspiring. With a modest 1.3% downward revision to FY13F and FY14F earnings and a slight dip for STI's average FY14F PE level, it's small wonder that STI remained resisted at 3250 in recent weeks. We maintain our 3150-3250 range in the near-term as the year-end lull period draws closer.

For the SMC, our picks for potential earnings outperformer are Nam Cheong, Ezion, Centurion &
Yoma. These stocks offer ample upside to fundamental TP. Technically, we'd pointed out that Yoma has upside potential to $0.87-0.89 in coming weeks.

Besides the 3Q results season, interest could also turn to China's key reform meeting this month. Should large liquidity stocks in China led by insurance and railway companies rally, Midas, underpinned by the recovery in high-speed railway and subway equipment orders, could find interest.

Earnings for Mapletree Greater China Commercial Trustwere ahead of prospectus forecast, lifted by strong positive rental reversions. Forward earnings growth underpinned by continued positive reversions, stable cashflow from a well patronized and a niche portfolio. We continue to like MAGIC for its quality assets and stable cashflow. However, with our latest revision in the 10-year bond rate, our DCF-backed TP is lowered to $0.97 (Prev S$ 1.00), translating to only a total return of 10%.
Downgrade to HOLD.

Cambridge Industrial Trust's 3Q13 results in line; early refinancing of expiring loans minimizes refinancing risks. Going forward, developments and acquisitions are expected to drive earnings growth. Maintain HOLD, given limited upside to our roll-forward TP of S$0.74 (Prev S$0.70). CREIT continues to offer a steady, resilient and growing DPU growth profile of c.5-6%, which in our view
is transparent and easily achievable.
Kreuz Holdings today reported that the Group's net profit surged 60.3% to US$16.6m for 3Q13, on the back of the 69.0% jumped in revenue to US$76.9m. 9M2013's revenue of US$202.5m already surpasses FY2012's revenue. Will follow up with more updates.

Great Group Holdings expects to report substantially higher operating loss for 3Q13, as compared to the corresponding period last year. This is due to, amongst others, lower revenues and gross margin resulting from weaker demand in Europe and severe competition in the midst of an increasingly
challenging business environment.

Changjiang Fertilizer expects to report a bigger loss in its 3Q13 results, as compared to the corresponding period in 2012 due to weak demand.

Hiap Seng Engineering expects to record a net loss for 2QFY14 and 1HFY14, attributable to cost overruns on certain projects.

Tung Lok Restaurants expects to report a loss for HY2014 due to new restaurant outlets and rising operating costs.

China Aviation Oil is proposing a 1-for-5 bonus issue of new shares. This is to reward and give due recognition to shareholders for their loyalty and continuing support.
Dyna-Mac has secured new fabrication orders for a provisional sum of US$117m from two new customers, Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering and OneSubsea Malaysia Systems.

Oxley Holdings is continuing its aggressive overseas expansion drive with one of its biggest acquisitions to date: the purchase of East London's 40-acre (16.2-hectare) Royal Wharf development site for £200m. The company intends to build more than 3,400 homes and develop a mix of
commercial, retail, leisure and educational facilities - amid a London housing shortage and cheap credit scheme from the UK government.



China's manufacturing sector expanded in October, two surveys showed. The official purchasing managers' index (PMI) - which measures manufacturing activity in Chinese factories, hit an 18-month peak of 51.4, a touch higher than the 51.1 in September and the 51.2 consensus forecast. A separate final PMI index published by HSBC and Markit rose to a seven-month high of 50.9. According to the official PMI, strong output was the main driver, rising to 54.4 from 52.9. This was offset by weakness in new orders and new export orders, which both dipped 0.3 points to 52.5 and 50.4 respectively. The final HSBC/Markit PMI was unchanged from a preliminary flash estimate released last week, and showed a uptick in both new orders and new export orders.

Source: DBSV
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