Towards Financial Freedom

DBSV S'pore Wired Daily 25 October 2012

kiasutrader
Publish date: Thu, 25 Oct 2012, 10:59 AM

Today's Focus
STI underperformed Hang Seng/SSEC post QE3/OMT, trend to continue with FY13F downgrades and emergence of inflation worries

HPH Trust - Prospects looking good, BUY on any near term weakness, TP raised to US$0.88

US markets ended marginally lower as a better US new home sales (actual +5.7% m-o-m, consensus +3.2% m-o-m) were offset by weak corporate results. We observed that the Dow has fallen 2% thus far post QE3 announcement on September 13. This is in stark contrast to the stock market reaction following the announcement of the first 2 QEs. It highlights the 'law of diminishing returns'. For the Dow, 13000 is the near-term support, rebound is likely cap at 13275.

Next, we observed that in the period preceding the ECB's OMT and FED's QE3 announcement in September, STI outperformed many regional indices as Singapore is seen as a safe haven that offers good yield, while HK/China equity markets performed poorly. Post QE3, STI has underperformed. Conversely, the Hang Seng Index performed very well and even China's SSEC outperformed the STI. For the local bourse, potential FY13F earnings downgrades that have yet to fully flow through and the emergence of inflation worries will still likely cause the STI to underperform the north Asian markets. For the current session, STI looks to continue its recent directionless trend.

Hutchison Port Holdings Trust's healthy volume growth did not translate to similar revenue and earnings growth in 3Q12. However, FY12F DPU of 6.6UScts looks safe but FY13 DPU may be affected by absence of capex deferral. Our analyst has cut FY13F DPU by about 3% to 6.4UScts, to factor in higher operating costs and the absence of support from further capex deferral. Macro indicators are trending up in US and China, and yield compression continues in Singapore. BUY on any near term weakness, TP raised to US$0.88 (Prev US$ 0.85).

3Q12 results for Cache Logistics Trust were in line. We expect strong earnings visibility and further uplift from potential acquisitions in 2013. Maintain HOLD, TP raised to S$1.26 (Prev S$ 1.21).

2Q13 results for Mapletree Industrial Trust held steady q-o-q. Operational results stable while reversions remained positive at c19-23% y-o-y. Maintain HOLD with revised TP of S$1.43 (Prev S$ 1.35) as we roll forward our valuations to FY14.

3Q12 results for Sheng Siong Group were slightly ahead on better margins. We see SSG being capable of adding an average of three stores each year to its total store count for FY13F and FY14F. By the end of FY12, SSG is expected to have 33 stores (+8 new stores in FY12) with a total retail area of 400,000 sq ft. After factoring in a slightly more robust 3Q12 earnings, our earnings expectation for FY12F is now revised by +3.8%. Maintain HOLD, TP raised to S$ 0.51 (Prev S$ 0.47) as we roll over our valuation from 20x blended FY12F/FY13F earnings base to 20x FY13F earnings.

CapitaRetail China Trust is placing 57m new units or 8.3% of the total number of units at S$1.51 each. The issue price represents a 5.8% discount to the last closing price. The gross proceeds raised amounts to approximately S$86.1m, with net proceeds after deducting all expenses at S$83.6m. CRCT will be distributing an advance distribution of 3.22cts from the period of 1 Jul to 1 Nov 2012 to existing unit holders on 1 Nov 2012. Our analyst has nudged down FY12 and FY13 DPU by 2% and 6% respectively. Gearing is expected to fall from 30.4% to 29% assuming that the proceeds is used to pare down debt at this point in time. Maintain HOLD call with a slight\y lower TP of S$1.66.

Singapore Airlineswill be ordering five more Airbus A380s and another 20 A350s for additional capacity growth and fleet renewal. The firm order commitments are valued at US$7.5bn based on Airbus' published list prices. Deliveries are due to begin in 2017. SIA currently operates 19 A380- 800 superjumbos and already had firm orders in place for 20 A350s, for delivery from 2015. As part of the deal, Airbus has agreed to acquire SIA's five A340-500s, which will be removed from service in the fourth quarter of the 2013 calendar year, in line with the Airline's policy to maintain a young fleet. This will result in the cessation of non-stop flights between Singapore and Los Angeles and between Singapore and Newark.

Separately, Scoot, the long-haul low-cost subsidiary of Singapore Airlines, has agreed to acquire twenty Boeing 787 aircraft for delivery commencing in 2014. The twenty fuel-efficient aircraft will be used to replace Scoot's Boeing 777-200 fleet and facilitate the airline's ongoing expansion.

Dynasty REIT has decided to suspend its S$956m IPO due to weak market conditions. The dual CNY and SGD denominated REIT would have been the largest IPO in Singapore this year. ARA Asset Management is the sponsor for Dynasty REIT.

Boustead Singaporehas joined a consortium developing a mixed-use project in Beijing's Tongzhou district and will invest $20.13m in the venture. This marks Boustead's first foray into commercial and retail developments in China. The consortium - which includes Perennial China Retail Trust and BreadTalk Group, is developing the Beijing Tongzhou Integrated Development in partnership with the subsidiary of a Beijing real estate developer. Total equity investment in the project is around $500m.

The China HSBC Flash Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) rose to a three-month high of 49.1 in October. The uptick in the headline index, along with rises in new orders and output - its two biggest sub-components - and broad improvement in export orders, inventories and prices charged, all signal a turnaround in the world's second-biggest economy.

Source: DBSV 
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