Towards Financial Freedom

DBSV S'pore Wired Daily 18 October 2012

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Publish date: Thu, 18 Oct 2012, 02:52 PM

Today's Focus
Hi-P - Still in recovery mode but may not be as strong as expected. Downgrade to HOLD, TP: S$1.06
Technical view ' Noble Group: S$1.32 pullback provides entry opportunity. First Resources: Take profit.

This morning, Asia awaits the release of China's 3Q GDP (consensus +7.4% y-o-y) and September industrial production (consensus 9%), retail sales (consensus +13.2%) and fixed asset investments figures. Ahead of this, China's Premier Wen Jiabao commented that the country's economic growth has started to stabilize, raising hope that the GDP data released later will be benign. No change in our positive technical view on the SSEC.

US stocks ended marginally higher on better-than-expected housing starts, which surged 15% in September to the highest levels in 4 years. Technology stocks though, were a drag as results have not been inspiring so far this reporting season. IBM & Intel were a drag post results released yesterday. E-Bay dipped in after hours trade post results release.

Hi-P is still in recovery mode in 2H12, but by a smaller estimated net profit of S$45m vs S$52m previously. iPhone demand is strong but 4Q would be capped by parts shortage in the supply chain. Our analyst has trimmed FY12F earnings by 15%; FY13F is unchanged. Downgrade to HOLD, target price unchanged at S$1.06 as near term performance is capped by supply chain uncertainty. Technically, any technical rebound (considering its recent decline from $1.10 to $0.93) should be capped at $0.99 near-term resistance at best. At worst, a gradual downward drift to $0.85-0.89 before correction ends.

Noble Groupshares have seen a gradual uptick in interest in recent days on the string of recent better-than-expected US data and also on the hope of stimulus from China post leadership change. Technically, we think the stock has found a low at $1.28 recently. If so, near-term support is $1.32 and any minor pullback to there is an entry opportunity. Our earlier technical view for an eventual (months) to $1.53 is challenged, albeit at a gradual pace currently. Resistance along the way is at $1.43 and $1.47.

First Resourcesshares rebounded to $2.04 yesterday, 1ct below our noted short-term resistance at $2.05 and ended at $2.01 yesterday. No change in our technical view that this bounce is a chance to reduce. Stock also offers no upside to our fundamental TP at $2.03.

Ascendas REIT's 1HFYMar13 results in line; forms 51% of our full year forecast. Operationally, average occupancy levels continue to remain stable at 96.6% while rental reversions remained healthy at 12.8%. A-REIT unveiled a further two asset enhancement works at Ultro Building and Aztech Building. These two AEI works are expected to deliver strong returns. Maintain HOLD and TP S$2.24 (Prev S$ 2.23). Valuations appear rich at prospective FY13-14F yields of 5.6-5.7% and P/BV ratio of 1.3x.

Keppel Land's 3Q results in line with expectations, 9-mth contributions make up 76% of our FY12 forecast. We believe Kepland's earnings will continue to be driven by its residential activities in Singapore and China in the near term. It has another c3000 units of homes in China and SEA to be completed and recognized in this year. Balance sheet remains healthy with a gross cash position of S$1.49bn as at end-3Q12 and gearing of 0.2x. Maintain Buy, TP S$3.81 (Prev S$3.75).

Raffles Medical Groupsaid that the application for change of use of the commercial podium at Thong Sia Building (30 Bideford Road) for medical clinics has not been successful. This latest development may cause some delay to the planned commencement of clinic operations at 30 Bideford Road. The property was purchased in mid-2011 for S$92.08m.

TTJ Holdings has secured S$36m worth of contracts for structural steelworks on Jurong Island. The new contracts bring the company's total order book to stand at S$162m.

Tung Lok Restaurants(2000) expects to report a loss for the fiscal half year ended Sept 30, 2012. Lower turnover and rising operating costs have reduced its profit margins.

YHM Group (prev. China Enersave) announced that it is in discussions with a party in relation to a possible transaction involving the shares in the company.

The month of October is set to be the busiest ever for Marina Bay Sands (MBS) in terms of its MICE (meetings, incentives, conventions and exhibitions) business. The integrated resort (IR) is hosting 13 tradeshows this month - four times the monthly average since its convention centre opened in April 2010 - and will collectively welcome 46,000 delegates. According to a recent survey of 2,500 people in nine countries by hotel operator Accor SA, Singapore beat Hong Kong to be Asia's most popular business destination in the first half of 2012. Latest data from the Singapore Tourism Board showed that the number of conventions, conferences and tradeshows in Singapore increased 46% to 2,130 last year from 2010.

Source: DBSV
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