Towards Financial Freedom

DBSV S'pore Wired Daily 16 October 2012

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Publish date: Tue, 16 Oct 2012, 03:39 PM


Today's Focus
Keppel Reit - Strong earnings visibility, attractive yield of 6.6%. Maintain BUY, TP at S$1.28

A technical rebound in reaction to the overnight gains on Wall Street after Citigroup reported better-than-expected earnings and retail sales (actual +1.1%, consensus +0.8%) came in better-than-expected. Citigroup earnings were lifted by revenue from bond trading. For the STI, the rebound should lift it to either 3057 or 3072 at most today.

Keppel Reit's (prev Kreit Asia) 3Q results in line; 9M DPU is 76% of our FY12 forecast. Looking ahead, we see limited downside risk to revenue. K-REIT has healthy take-up, stable rents backed by high occupancy rates and low expiry leases. Maintain BUY, TP unchanged at S$1.28. We continue to like the reit for its strong earnings visibility supported by long- weighted lease expiry of 7.2 years. FY13/14F yields at 6.6- 6.7%, is one of the highest among REITs.

HPH Trust's Yantian Port's September throughput grew by 16.7% y-o-y to 1.06m TEU. This is the second consecutive month of double digit throughput growth at Yantian, following August growth figure of 11.7% y-o-y. While part of the August growth was weather-related, the higher growth in September is largely a function of a lower base in September 2011, a likely return to more normal peak season patterns in trade, and continued market share gains. For 3Q12, Yantian volumes are up 10%. YTD in 2012, Yantian's throughput growth now stands at 4.8% y-o-y, compared to only 2% growth registered in 1H12.

Over in HK, throughput growth turned positive at Kwai Tsing terminals for the first time in 4 months, again helped by a low base effect. Volume handled at Kwai Tsing terminals grew 7.3% y-o-y to 1.46m TEUs in September. YTD, Kwai Tsing terminal throughput is up 1.5%. Thus, overall growth numbers are in line or slightly higher than our 2-4% full year growth forecast for Yantian and HIT. No changes to our DPU estimates. We forecast 6.6UScts payout for full-year FY12, including interim DPU of 3.1UScts. Maintain BUY, TP US$0.85. Despite some recent re-rating, yield remains attractive at 8.25%.

SIA's September operating data showed a 7.7% y-o-y growth in passenger carriage on 6.3% corresponding increase in capacity. As a result passenger load factor for the month rose by 1ppt to 80.6%. At the same time, Silkair's passenger carriage rose by 13.9% y-o-y on an 18.4% increase in capacity, which led to a 2.8ppt decline in load factor to 68.9%. SIA Cargo registered a 4.2% decline in carriage on 4.8% decline in capacity, with load factor improving a marginal 0.4ppt to a likely still loss-making load factor of 64.1%.

For SIA's 2Q13 (Jul-Sep '13) period, its passenger carriage rose by 6.5% y-o-y on a 5.8% increase in capacity, with a 0.5ppt improvement in load factor to 79.8%. Whilst SIA's passenger carriage grew at a decent pace for the quarter, it comes on the back of fare promotions which could potentially mean flat or even lower yields for its core passenger business. Meanwhile, cargo continues to show weak operating numbers, which signifies a fourth consecutive quarter of being in the red. This set of numbers are in line with our view that although SIA's profitability should rebound sequentially, it will continue to be weak. Maintain HOLD call with TP S$10, based on 0.9x P/Book.

Primary homes sales (excl ECs) in Sept rebounded 84% m-o-m to 2621 units. Adding ECs, the number would have reached 2771 units, up 80% from the previous month. This is the highest level of activity since July 2009. This brings the 9M primary sales figure to 17,927 units, higher than the level of transactions in 2011 of 15,902 units. The strong sales were a function of higher number of launches as well as strong demand as take up rate exceeded 1x. We believe activity is likely to moderate post property cooling measures. We expect property stocks to continue trading at a discount to asset backing. Remain defensive, prefer Suntec REIT and CapitaMalls Asia.

Cambridge Industrial Trust has received compensation of S$72.4m for the compulsory land acquisition by the Singapore Land Authority of the property at 30 Tuas Road. The property was recorded at a value of S$72.4m in CIT's books as at 30 June 2012.

IEV Holdings has entered into a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with Gas Malaysia. Under the terms of the MOU, the group will initiate and conduct a feasibility study to review the prospects of cooperating and successfully undertaking projects for the processing, transporting and marketing of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) to industrial consumers in the Peninsular Malaysia who are not connected to Gas Malaysia's natural gas pipeline system.

Fortune Domain, a special-purpose vehicle backed by SYNEAR FOOD HOLDINGs' executive chairman and its chief executive officer, is looking to delist the food producer, proposing a privatisation offer of $0.186 per share. Fortune Domain already holds a total stake of 50.13% in Synear.

Singapore retail sales bounced back in August, rising 3.2% y-o-y. Excluding motor vehicles, retail sales were up 2.7% in August. When comparing month on month (seasonally adjusted), retail sales edged up 0.9% in August versus July, and were 0.4% higher month on month when sales of motor vehicles were stripped out. In comparison, retail sales in July slumped 2.9% y-o-y and up 0.4% m-o-m. In August, medical goods and toiletries and supermarkets saw sales climb by 9.1% and 8.2% y-o-y, while sales of cars were up 5.2%. However, sales of watches and jewellery declined 3.2% from August last year - the only retail category to report a fall -while sales of telecommunications apparatus and computers were flat.

China's inflation eased to below 2% in September, up 1.9% while the production price index fell 3.6% y-o-y, pointing to continuing strains within the world's second biggest economy. The market does not expect easing measures in the near-term as inflationary pressures have not disappeared and the government is keen on a definite shift from investment-led growth.

Source: DBSV
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