Towards Financial Freedom

DBSV S'pore Wired Daily 19 September 2012

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Publish date: Wed, 19 Sep 2012, 10:43 AM

Today's Focus
Triyards, Ezra's engineering and fabrication arm, seeking listing on SGX by way of an introduction; fair value S$0.60

Triyards, Ezra's engineering and fabrication arm, is seeking a listing on SGX by way of an introduction. Ezra shareholders will receive a dividend in specie in the ratio of 1 Triyards share for every 10 Ezra shares held. Based on our fair value of S$0.60, we estimate the value of dividend per Ezra share to be c. 6.0 Scts. We expect Triyards to post a strong recovery in FY12F earnings of US$22m (+154% y-o-y) on the back of higher work volume and higher-margin projects. We project earnings to dip in FY13F on 2012's low order intake, before recovering in FY14F on higher expected order intake in FY13.

Olam has purchased a 100% equity interest in Northern Coffee Corporation (NCCL), the largest coffee estate in Zambia for US$6.15m. NCCL currently has 5 estates with total land size of 5,866 ha in the Northern Province of Zambia. About 1,580 ha on three estates were previously used for coffee production. Olam intends to spend an additional US$40m to fully develop 2,000 ha of Arabica coffee plantation over the next 5 years with the first 300ha being planted in FY13. By FY21, on a steady state basis Olam expects to produce 4,500 MT of Arabica beans. Olam believes this transaction is consistent with its strategy of investing selectively in the upstream segment of the coffee value chain. The US$6.15m acquisition cost and US$40m in capex will be funded by internal accruals and borrowings. In addition Olam expects this transaction to be
1. earnings accretive from FY16 onwards
2. deliver an EBITA margin in excess of 50% by FY21
3. generate an equity IRR of 28%

We view this transaction favourably as the return metrics are attractive in the medium term. However given smallish nature of the acquisition and limited near term earnings impact, there is no change our numbers. Maintain HOLD recommendation with TP of S$1.80.

SingTel secures UEFA champions cup rights just hours before the first match. StarHub had pulled out yesterday indicating stalled discussions. SingTel secured the rights on non-exclusive basis and cross-carriage laws do not apply here. However StarHub is not interested in paying the price-tag for the rights which suggest that rights did not come cheap. However, SingTel has its sport subscriber base and needs to cater to them. Going forward, we expect SingTel and StarHub to bid for English Premier League rights on non-exclusive basis or joint bidding.

Dubai-based Emirates is significantly boosting capacity on its Singapore-Dubai route by launching A380 services. Emirates said it will boost capacity on the Dubai-Singapore sector by 46% with the introduction of its giant 517-seat aircraft starting Dec 1. While Emirates' move may be welcome news for Changi, it could introduce more competition to SIA on its European services. SIA operates direct services to 13 European cities from Changi.

Tat Hong is placing 70m new shares at S$1.20 per Placement Share which raised total net proceeds of approximately S$82.1m. The placement price represents a discount of approximately 9% to last weighted average price. The proceeds will be used to expand its crane fleet to meet rental demand, acquire land and buildings in Singapore and Malaysia to house its expanded cane fleet and operations and for general corporate funding purposes.

China Environmental Resources Group is expected to record significant losses for the year ended 30 June 2012, mainly attributed to the impairment of goodwill arising from the acquisitions of subsidiaries, impairment of patents and decrease in valuation of biological assets during the year ended 30 June 2012.

A sale could be in the offing for the landmark Mandarin Orchard Singapore and the adjoining Mandarin Gallery which were valued at $1.18bn and $520m at the end of last year. Owner Overseas Union Enterprise (OUE) is said to have been receiving interest from potential buyers particularly for the hotel for some time now and has maintained that it will sell the property if it receives a price too good to refuse. Mandarin Orchard's $1.18bn valuation in OUE's books works out to around $1.12m per key for the 1,051-room property.

In property news, a partnership between First Shine Properties and Meadows Bright Development has placed the top bid for a 99-year-leasehold private housing site on Dairy Farm Road. Their bid of nearly $244.3m works out to $616 psf ppr, ahead of earlier market expectations since the launch of the site in July. The tender attracted nine bids in all and the top bid was 9.9% higher than the next highest bid.

US markets ended mixed after FedEx reduced its profit outlook. On a brighter note, the September NAHB housing market index gained further ground to 40, better than the 38 expected. This rise places the index 15pt higher than in January and 25pt higher than a year ago, indicating a solid, unwavering climb in builder sentiment. Today's housing starts are bound to reflect that optimism. Consensus expects a 2.8% (MoM, sa) rise in August, which would put sales up some 32% over one year ago. With the STI a mere 8pts above our stated immediate support of 3060, bargain hunting should emerge with risk-on trades still in focus.

Source: DBSV 
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