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DBSV S'pore Wired Daily 11 September 2012

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Publish date: Tue, 11 Sep 2012, 10:40 AM

Today's Focus
Tiger Airways - Reported stable operating numbers for August; expect group to be profitable by last quarter of CY12 (3QFY13). Maintain BUY and S$0.92 TP.

Tiger Airwaysreported stable operating numbers for August. As a group, passenger carriage (RPK) was up 58% y-o-y, but the y-o-y figure is distorted owing to the grounding of Australian fleet in July-Aug 2011. Group load factor was stable and remained healthy at 84%. On a m-o-m basis, August 2012 operating numbers for the Group came in largely unchanged over July 2012, as no significant new capacity was deployed during the month. At the Australian operations, passenger carriage (RPK) of 239m p-km was largely flat m-o-m, while load factor improved for the 5th consecutive month to 87%. Tiger Australia continues to show encouraging signs. Passenger carriage (RPK) at Singapore operations also stayed flat m-o-m at 631m p-km, but was up 19% y-o-y, on an expanded capacity base. Load factor was stable at 83% at Tiger Singapore. Overall, we continue to believe that the carrier will move steadily towards profitability and we expect the group as a whole to be profitable by the last quarter of CY2012 (3QFY13). Maintain BUY and S$0.92 TP.

Malaysia's Aug12 palm oil exports grew 10% m-o-m against a 15% contraction the month before. Most of the recovery comes from stronger shipments to China, India, the US and Egypt, offset by declines in shipments to Pakistan and EU. Over the next three months, we expect soybean exports to shrink vs the same period last year. Hence, soybean oil substitutes should be sought as crushing volumes declines. For this reason, we expect palm oil exports to continue to head north. We forecast Sep12 exports to jump 24% m-o-m to 1.773m MT, given the record price discount to soybean oil. We expect price weakness to persist through Oct12, as output peaks in Sep-Oct12. Focus on volume growth plays to offset price weakness. Bumitama Agri (BUY, TP: S$1.30) remains out top pick for SGX-listed plantation companies.

Cosco Corp has signed a contract valued over US$200m from Axis Offshore, to build one Harsh Environment Semi Submersible Accommodation Rig. The rig is scheduled for delivery in Q1 2015. The contract value is similar to its previous semi-submersible accommodation vessel secured in May, which is also designed for harsh environment in the North Sea.

We expect gross margins from this project to be around 10% target margins for offshore projects. Chinese yards, plagued by a dry spell for shipbuilding orders, are turning towards the offshore sector to keep their yards utilized. With this project, total YTD order win is US$1.45b, on track to meet our assumed order wins of US$2b. The group remains under pressure to top its gross order book of US$6.1b, given persistent weak outlook in the shipbuilding industry. Maintain Fully Valued and TP of S$0.88.

Global Logistic Properties has signed a strategic partnership agreement with Haier Group, the world's leading home appliances solutions provider, to develop a state-of-the-art logistics network for the distribution of household appliances across China. The partnership will combine GLP's leading national platform and solutions with Haier's strong market presence. The result will be an expanded customer base for GLP within the home appliance distribution industry and further supply chain optimization for Haier.

Vashion Group is placing 900m new shares at an issue price of S$0.01 per Placement Share for a consideration of S$4.5m. The issue price represents a premium of 100% to the volume weighted average price of S$0.005. The estimated net proceeds of approximately S$8.95m will be mainly used for business expansion, through acquisitions and/or investments in new companies and/or capital expenditure.

Source: DBSV 
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