We recently met up with management and came away with the following takeaways: 1) Construction for three of its residential projects, The Beverly, Skyline 360? at St Thomas and Treasure on Balmoral is progressing ahead of schedule, with all three expected to obtain Temporary Occupation Permit over the next two months, 2) While the high-end residential market has been relatively quiet, the group's earnings will be underpinned by some $250m of progress billings to be recognised over the next 18 months, 3) The Zhongshan Park commercial development is tracking ahead of schedule, with the 405-room Days Hotel expected to obtain TOP this month, followed by the retail component in December, and the Ramada hotel and the office space in early 2013. We are revising our TP for the stock to $0.68, on valuation upgrades to the hotel component of Zhongshan Park. BUY maintained with 23% upside.
Earnings visibility over next 18 months. Following the T.O.P for The Beverly, Treasure on Balmoral and Skyline 360'' this month, Hiap Hoe will step up marketing efforts for the remaining unsold units. The high-end residential segment remains relatively quiet but has seen a pickup in transactions in 2Q12. We estimate Hiap Hoe has some $250m of progress billings and $114m of pretax earnings to be recognised over the next 18 months, even without any further sales.
Zhongshan Park commercial project ahead of schedule. The 405-room Days Hotel and the retail component of Zhongshan Park is expected to commence operations before the end of the year. Pre-leasing for the retail space has reached 50%, clinching tenants such as NTUC Finest, Guardian, Crystal Jade and Toast Box. We estimate a stabilised yield of 5-6% on the $617m GDV development, which will provide the group with a stream of recurring income going forward. On the business front, the group continues to actively source for land-bank and is exploring a re-development of its Kallang Pudding industrial site.
BUY maintained. We raise our RNAV for the stock from $1.22 to $1.36, with the upgrade driven by higher valuation for Days Hotel (from $400,000 per key to $500,000 per key) and Ramada Hotel (from $500,000 per key to $600,000 per key). On the same 50% discount to RNAV, we raise our TP from $0.61 to $0.68. Catalysts for the stock include 1) a hike in dividends, 2) Good take-up on new residential sales and 3) partial monetisation of its Zhongshan Park project.