Towards Financial Freedom

Hiap Hoe: On Time, On Target

kiasutrader
Publish date: Thu, 06 Sep 2012, 10:50 AM
We  recently  met  up  with  management  and  came  away with the following takeaways:  1)  Construction  for  three  of its residential projects,  The Beverly,  Skyline 360? at St Thomas and Treasure on Balmoral is progressing ahead  of  schedule, with all three expected to obtain Temporary Occupation Permit  over  the next two months, 2) While the high-end residential market has been relatively quiet, the group's earnings will be underpinned by some $250m of progress billings to be recognised over the next 18 months, 3) The Zhongshan  Park  commercial development is tracking ahead of schedule, with the  405-room Days Hotel expected to obtain TOP this month, followed by the retail  component in December, and the Ramada hotel and the office space in early  2013.  We  are  revising our TP for the stock to $0.68, on valuation upgrades to the hotel  component of Zhongshan Park. BUY maintained with 23% upside.

Earnings  visibility  over  next  18  months.  Following  the T.O.P for The Beverly,  Treasure  on Balmoral and Skyline 360'' this month,  Hiap Hoe will step  up  marketing  efforts  for  the remaining unsold units. The high-end residential  segment  remains  relatively  quiet  but  has seen a pickup in transactions  in  2Q12.  We  estimate  Hiap  Hoe has some $250m of progress billings  and  $114m  of  pretax earnings to be recognised over the next 18 months, even without any further sales.

Zhongshan  Park  commercial  project  ahead  of schedule. The 405-room Days Hotel  and  the  retail component of Zhongshan Park is expected to commence operations before the end of the year. Pre-leasing for the retail space has reached  50%, clinching tenants such as NTUC Finest, Guardian, Crystal Jade and  Toast  Box.  We  estimate  a stabilised yield of 5-6% on the $617m GDV development, which will provide the group with a stream of recurring income going  forward.  On  the  business  front,  the group continues to actively source  for  land-bank  and  is  exploring  a re-development of its Kallang Pudding industrial site.

BUY  maintained.  We raise our RNAV for the stock from $1.22 to $1.36, with the  upgrade  driven  by higher valuation for Days Hotel (from $400,000 per key  to  $500,000  per  key)  and  Ramada  Hotel (from $500,000 per key  to $600,000  per  key). On the same 50% discount to RNAV, we raise our TP from $0.61  to $0.68. Catalysts for the stock include 1) a hike in dividends, 2) Good  take-up  on  new residential sales and 3) partial monetisation of its Zhongshan Park project.
Source: OSK
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