● GGR's 1Q FY2015 results could be weak due to low palm oil price, while refining margins are expected to remain weak in Indonesia, with a sizeable refining overcapacity.
● We have revised down our palm oil price assumptions to RM2,250 for CY2015, RM2,400 for CY2016 and RM2,600 for CY2017. As such, we are cutting GGR's FY15-17 earnings forecasts by 18.7- 57.4%, and its target price to S$0.40 from S$0.42.
● We maintain NEUTRAL-its share price has fallen 34% over a 12- month period and have priced in the bulk of the negative news, in our opinion. GGR's P/B valuation is now at a multi-year low but we believe that the share price will be dragged by poor sentiment on the plantation sector.
● GGR has recently re-initiated its share buy-back scheme. It has so far done two tranches this year-68.2 mn shares at S$0.416 on 27 March and 34.6 mn shares at S$0.434 on 6 April-to support its share price.
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