Our earnings estimates have been adjusted due to the demerger of the debt investments business. However we have not made any changes to our profit margin or earnings assumptions for the shipbuilding, ship chartering or trading business.
Maintain BUY call on Yangzijiang Shipbuilding with an SOTP-based target price of S$1.16, which has been adjusted down post the demerger of its debt investments business into Yangzijiang Financial.
We have used a 8x and 5x multiple for its shipbuilding and trading & other business segments respectively, thus arriving at a S$1.13 and $0.08/share valuation for these two segments. By using publicly-sourced replacement cost for its shipping assets, we value this segment at RMB4.4b or $0.24/share – this is double that of the company’s carrying cost of these assets, or approximately 3x higher than its book value of $0.09 as at end-21. At our target price, Yangzijiang Shipbuilding would trade at a 2022F P/E of 6.7x which we do not view as stretched.
Inexpensive valuations. Yangzijiang's share price currently trades at a 2022F P/E of 5.4x which is a 17% discount to, and 1 standard deviation below, its 5-year average of 6.6x. While its 2022F P/B of 1.1x is higher than its past 5-year average of 0.7x, we highlight that the company is forecast to increase its ROE from 10.8% in 2021 to 12.8% in 2022.
In addition, assuming that Yangzijiang Shipbuilding maintains a payout ratio of 25% for 2022 (2021: 26%), the stock would yield 4.7% and thus provide downside support to the share price.
Source: UOB Kay Hian Research - 29 Jun 2022
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