We think DBS's share price will react positively to its record S$2bn profit for 1Q21 vs our/consensus estimates of S$1.3bn/S$1.5bn.
General provisions (GP) writeback of S$190m resulted in total impairments of only S$10m (or -1bp) in 1Q21. Wealth management/treasury income were at record highs.
Strong management outlook with FY21F credit costs at less than S$1bn, double-digit full-year fee income growth & structural improvement in treasury.
DBS 1Q21 Net Profit Beat on the Back of S$190m General Provision Writebacks
DBS (SGX:D05)’s 1Q21 net profit of S$2.0bn (+99% q-o-q/+72% y-o-y) was above our/consensus estimates of S$1.3bn/S$1.5bn. The beat was primarily due to a S$190m writeback of general provisions (GP), resulting in total impairments of only S$10m (-1bp) in 1Q21. Meanwhile, DBS's wealth management and treasury income levels were at record highs.
1Q21 net profit formed 35%/34% of our/consensus full-year forecasts.
DBS declared interim dividend of S$0.18 for 1Q21. We project S$1.08 for the full year of FY21F (we expect MAS’s dividend cap of 60% of FY19’s payout to be lifted). A scrip dividend scheme will be applied to 1Q21 dividends.
Stellar Wealth and Trading Income; NIM Stable
DBS's NIM was stable q-o-q at 1.49% in 1Q21 (4Q20: 1.49%) as benchmark rates stabilised. Average 3MSIBOR/SOR rose 1bp/7bp while 3MLIBOR slipped 2bp in 1Q21. NII dipped 1% q-o-q in 1Q21 (-15% y-o-y), although loan growth picked up to +4% q-o-q (4Q20: -0.1% q-o-q).
DBS's fee income rose 28% q-o-q and 15% y-o-y on a strong recovery in business momentum. Wealth management fees came in at a record high of S$519m (+50% q-o-q/+29% y-o-y). Trade and transaction income also rose to a quarterly high (+22% q-o-q/ +22% y-o-y) but credit card income was slightly softer (-5% q-o-q, -2% y-o-y).
Overall non-II performance was admirable (+53% q-o-q/+13% y-o-y), boosted by record high treasury income of S$794m (+101% q-o-q/ +12% y-o-y). This came from a doubling of trading income; investment gains were softer y-o-y (but stronger q-o-q). On balance, PPOP rose 35% q-o-q (-8% y-o-y) on the back of disciplined cost control.
DBS made a S$190m (20bp) writeback of general provision, offsetting specific provisions of S$200m (21bp) in 1Q21. Overall credit costs totalled 1bp in 1Q21, significantly lower than our expected 42bp (S$400m) in 1Q21, which did not account for writebacks at this stage.
DBS Management Guidance
DBS upgraded its full-year loan growth guidance to mid-to-high single-digit. The bank forecasts full-year fee income growth to be at double-digits.
Full-year expenses are forecast to be around 3-4% higher than 2019 levels. The bank expects Lakshmi Vilas Bank to add 2% points to opex and incur ~1-2% y-o-y higher costs to expand its business.
New NPA formation is below pre-pandemic levels. Full-year total allowances are likely to be below S$1bn.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....