Manulife US REIT (SGX:BTOU)’s portfolio occupancy in 3Q20 was lower at 94.3% due to two non-renewals and as leasing velocity fell sharply with tenants adopting a wait-and-see.
While near-term demand will likely remain muted on the back of pandemic-induced uncertainties, FY20-21 DPUs are cushioned by limited lease expiries, its strong assets, and quality tenancies.
Manulife US REIT's valuations are undemanding at 8.0% FY20 yield vs 5.0-6.2% for its S-REIT peers, backed by high DPU visibility with stable income growth and low leasing risks. We kept forecasts and DDM-based Target Price unchanged (COE: 7.0%, LTG: 2.0%).
We see DPU upside for Manulife US REIT with low 39.9% leverage supporting further acquisition opportunities. Maintain BUY.
Slow, Quarter, a Dip in Occupancy
Manulife US REIT's portfolio occupancy fell q-o-q from 96.2% to 94.3% in 3Q20 due to two expiring leases at Peachtree and Centerpointe; both were unrelated to the pandemic and attributed to rationalisation activities. 94% of its rents were collected in 3Q20, vs 98% for 9M20, while 0.3% of deferment and 0.2% of abatement were provided mainly to its F&B, lifestyle and retail tenants.
No leases were signed in 3Q20, and as such 9M20 execution was unchanged from the ~217k sf at +7.9% rental reversion in 1H20.
Long WALE, Low Leasing Risks
Manulife US REIT's WALE contracted to 5.5 years (from 5.7 years in 1H20), with 56.7% of leases by NLA expiring in 2025 and beyond. WALE for its top ten tenants (public-listed companies, government bodies, corporate headquarters), contributing 35.4% of gross rental income, was higher at 6.3 years.
Manulife US REIT's expiring leases in FY20-21 at 7.9% of NLA are from Capitol, Figueroa and Michelson. Except for the latter, the properties are trading at 6% below market rents. This and limited comparable supply in its sub-markets, should cushion both occupancies and rents in FY20-21E.
Balance Sheet Healthy
Borrowings of USD223.7m for the Penn and Michelson properties are due to be refinanced in FY21, and we estimate USD3.0m cost savings, or 3.2% of its distributable income. Leverage rose to 39.9% (from 39.1%) from its 1H20 payout in Aug and capex, with an estimated USD200-400m debt headroom (45-50% limit) to support potential deals.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....