Ascendas REIT's 1H20 DPU of 7.27 Scts makes up 48.3% of our FY20F forecast.
Portfolio occupancy remains stable, some drags from rent relief.
Downgrade to HOLD with a higher DDM-based Target Price of S$3.12.
Ascendas REIT's 1H20 Results Highlights
Ascendas REIT (SGX:A17U) posted a 14.6%/11.2% y-o-y rise in gross revenue and NPI to S$521.2m/S$388m with contributions from the US and Singapore business park properties, acquired in Dec 2019. This was partly offset by rent rebates to tenants and income vacuum from divestments/redevelopment properties.
Distribution income rose 3% y-o-y to S$263.2m, however, DPU declined 10.8% y-o-y to 7.27 Scts due to an expansion in unit base following a rights issue in Dec 2019.
Stable Portfolio Occupancy
Ascendas REIT achieved portfolio occupancy of 91.5% at end-1H20 on positive rental reversion of 5.4%. Australia and US portfolios recorded reversions of +16.2-16.6% while Singapore saw an average 4% across its properties. Sources of new demand came mainly from logistics and supply chain management, engineering, IT and data centres and lifestyle, retail and consumer products sectors.
Looking ahead, management indicated that it expects to achieve a low single-digit positive reversion in FY20, vs. its earlier guidance of flat reversion for the year.
Ascendas REIT has 8.2% of gross rental income to be renewed in 2HFY20F and another 15.8% in FY21F.
Some Near-term Drags From Tenant Rent Reliefs
Ascendas REIT indicated that it expects to extend S$20m of out-of-pocket rent reliefs due to the impact of COVID-19, of which about half have been released to date, largely to tenants in Singapore.
In Australia, it has suspended rent collection from retail/F&B tenants ( < 1% of Australia income) from Apr until they reopen and have offered rental waiver and deferment to two SME tenants.
In UK, no rent rebates have been given to date although it allowed some tenants to change their rental payment structure.
The US remains robust with rental rebates provided to one small café operator.
Ascendas REIT completed the acquisition of a 25% stake in Galaxis in Mar 2020 and recently announced the purchase of a logistics property in Sydney for A$23.5m. The transaction is expected to be completed in 3QFY20 and will be fully funded by debt. Balance sheet is robust with aggregate leverage at 36.1% as at end-1H20.
Downgrade to HOLD
Overall, we tweak down our Ascendas REIT's FY20-22F DPU estimates by 2.2-2.6% post results, to factor in slight changes in portfolio occupancy, partly offset by new contributions from the new Sydney property.
We raise our DDM-based Target Price to S$3.12 as we lower our cost of equity but downgrade our rating to HOLD from ADD, given the recent Ascendas REIT share price rally and limited near-term upside.
Upside risk: faster-than-expected global recovery.
Downside risk: protracted downturn from the impact of COVID-19.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....