While Suntec REIT (SGX:T82U)’s convention and retail segments face near-term challenges due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the office segment is expected to remain relatively resilient due to a minimal lease expiry and low average expiring rents (vs committed rents).
Suntec REIT's balance sheet remains relatively healthy and the completion of development assets is largely on track. Valuations are starting to look attractive at 0.6x P/BV.
The Retail and Convention Segments Account for One Third of Income
Retail segment accounted for 27% of 4Q19 net property income (NPI). In terms of tenant assistance package, Suntec REIT has currently rolled out up to 2.75 months relief to their cash flow: It released one month of security deposits, 1 month of rental rebates from pass-through of property tax rebates and the remaining 0.75 months will be from the REIT. ( However, the Suntec Convention Centre (6% of NPI) will be the worst hit with upcoming events cancelled or postponed.
Risks for the Office Segment Are Relatively Mitigated
Only 13% of office leases is due for renewal in 2020. While office leasing is likely to see a pause amid the current uncertain conditions, the expiring rents for FY20 (SGD 8.9psf pm) were still 15% lower than the market rents before the pandemic thus providing some cushion to lower the rent for new lease signings.
There is also a possibility of deferring the sinking fund contribution (SGD 19.3m in 2019) which was used for upgrading Suntec City thus saving additional operating overheads for the REIT in the near-term.
No Major Delays in the Completion of Its Asset Developments
9 Penang Road (a 30% stake) has obtained its temporary occupation permit in Oct 2019. The office component has been 100% pre-leased to UBS (long lease tenure) with targeted occupation (rental commencement) in 2H20.
Management noted that completion of its Australian assets Olderfleet and 21 Harris Street is largely on track with only a few days of delay expected. The assets are > 80% pre-committed with long underlying weighted average lease to expiry (WALE) thus mitigating effects from near-term volatility.
Earnings and Target Price Changes
We revised our FY20-22F DPU lower by 8- 13% factoring in rent rebates, lower rent growth and occupancy. We have also increased our COE assumptions by 30bps. Valuations are starting to look attractive at 0.6x P/BV. Keep BUY with a lower target price of $1.78.
Balance Sheet Remains Strong With No Debt Maturing Until 2021
Gearing stands at 37.7% and for it to breach 45% gearing threshold asset values would have to decline by >16%. Suntec REIT has already refinanced a SGD310m medium term note maturing this year. About 75% of its borrowing is fixed in nature.
Suntec REIT also hedged 30% of AUD-denominated income for 2020 on top of a natural hedge from AUD borrowings.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....