BRC Asia posted a strong 1QFY20 core net profit of S$11.9m (+93% y-o-y). Results were above our forecasts due to stronger-than-expected GPM.
We remain positive on BRC Asia’s FY20F outlook, albeit with some near-term headwinds from the Covid-19 outbreak.
Reiterate ADD, with an unchanged Target Price of S$2.05.
BRC Asia remains our top pick for the construction industry.
Strong 1QFY9/20 Results
BRC Asia (SGX:BEC) reported a stellar 1Q20 core net profit of S$11.9m (+93% y-o-y), forming 26%/29% of our/Bloomberg consensus’ full-year projection. This is despite 1H being a slower period seasonally for the group, due to festive seasons, including Christmas and Chinese New Year.
The results beat came mainly from stronger GPM, which expanded by 6.1% pts y-o-y to 13.1% in 1Q20. We believe this was contributed by:
Management has seen volume deliveries drop by 5-10% in Feb due to the Covid-19 outbreak, as construction activities in Singapore were temporarily impacted by the staggered return of Chinese workers (which make up 10% of the construction workforce).
Nevertheless, management remains cautiously optimistic on its FY20F outlook, as it expects construction companies to catch up on the slack later as the situation improves.
We believe our FY20F volume growth forecast of 8% for BRC Asia remains intact, given that it is at the lower end of the Building and Construction Authority’s forecasted 7-21% y-o-y growth for steel bar demand in 2020F.
Strong Margin Expansion to Continue in FY20F
We forecast BRC Asia to record a GPM expansion of 1.9% pts to 10.3% in FY20F. BRC Asia has been entering into more fixed price contracts with construction companies, in view of the weaker steel price outlook.
According to BCA, steel rebar prices in Singapore have been on a downtrend since May 2019 (Jan 2020: -4.2% y-o-y); this could potentially translate into better profits for BRC Asia.
We also expect BRC Asia to benefit from:
normalised industry pricing,
the whittling down of low-margin projects from BRC Asia’s orderbook, and
further cost synergies from BRC Asia’s consolidation of Lee Metal in FY20F.
Overall, we expect BRC Asia to record a net profit of S$45m in FY20F (+43% y-o-y).
Reiterate ADD, With Target Price of S$2.05
Reiterate ADD. We make no changes to our EPS forecasts. Our Target Price is kept at S$2.05, still based on 1.65x CY20F BVPS (GGM: ROE 14.4%, cost of equity 8.9%, terminal growth 0.5%).
Re-rating catalysts include a stronger margin expansion; downside risks include slower volume growth due to weaker construction activities amid the Covid-19 outbreak and counterparty credit risks.
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