MANULIFE US REIT (SGX:BTOU)’s 4Q19 DPU was down 5.9% y-o-y as its unit base rose 6.5% y-o-y due to the Capitol asset acquisition and was in line with MKE/consensus’ estimates.
We kept DPU forecasts mostly unchanged and rolled forward our DDM-based target price of SGD1.15.
Valuation remains compelling at 5.9% FY20 DPU yield vs 4.5-6.0% offered by its office S-REIT peers, backed by high DPU visibility with stable income growth and low leasing risks. We see DPU upside with low 37.7% leverage supporting further acquisition opportunities.
Maintain BUY.
Lower Occupancies; Leasing Activity Strong
Manulife US REIT's 4Q19 revenue and NPI rose 20.4% y-o-y and 18.9% y-o-y with earlier acquisitions – Centerpointe since May 2019 and Capitol since Oct 2019. Its portfolio occupancy dipped from 97.3% to 95.8% q-o-q, mainly due to Mchelson (from 96.0% to 90.1%) and Exchange (97.7% to 95.8%).
Leasing activity improved at 52k sf (from 32k sf in 3Q19) and gained traction in Jan 2020, with 70k sf leased/renewed at Plaza, Peachtree and Figueroa. This lifted committed occupancy to 96.4%. Its assets all mostly trade at 5-10% below market rents, except for Michelson. We expect both its occupancies and rents to be supported with limited new supply in each sub-market.
Long WALE, Low Leasing Risk
Its WALE was lower at 5.9 years (from 6.2 years), with 54.4% of its leases by NLA expiring in 2025 and beyond. WALE for its top 10 tenants at 34.6% of its gross rental income was higher at 6.7 years (from 39.8% at 6.9 years as of end-Sep 2019) while its co-working tenancies comprised about 2.0% of gross rental income.
Strong Balance Sheet, Further Deal Upside
Leverage has risen to fund six acquisitions since its 2016 IPO but remains at a comfortable 37.7%, which suggests almost USD300m in debt headroom.
We expect acquisitions to provide upside to our DPUs, from its sponsor’s strong deal pipeline of real-estate assets concentrated in the US.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....