StarHub has announced the merger of its cybersecurity arm with Temasek-owned Quann to create one of the largest pure play end-to-end cybersecurity outfits in Asia: Ensign. The deal structure provides for the crystallisation of some value of its investments from Year 3, for which it is forking out SGD52m (net outlay: SGD36m), in exchange for new shares. Assuming Ensign generates revenue in excess of SGD100m pa and a 15% net margin (ex-management charges), we estimate net earnings accretion of 0.7% for FY18 and 4.7% for FY19, all else being equal.
While the merger is positive to drive scale and scope, we leave our core earnings forecasts unchanged for now, as we expect synergies to accrue over time with a progressive ramp-up over the next 1-2 years.
Key risks of the exercise: higher opex and slower merger synergies.
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