Singapore's recent export performance has not been as strong as seen in Taiwan, and South Korea over the final two months of 2023, however there are clear signs of stabilisation following the sharp declines than spanned 4Q22 through to 3Q23.
According to the latest data, Singapore's NODX contracted by 1.5% year-on-year in December, following 1.0% year-on-year growth in November and a 3.5% year-on-year decline in October. Observations include:
The moderation in global demand for semiconductors, which started in late 2022 and extended into 2023, has been cited as a reason for the NODX contractions throughout 2023. Looking to 2024, there are indications that the semiconductor downcycle could be near inflection as indicated by PMIs, with the segment also recently boosting Singapore’s Industrial Production figures. Electronics make up about 45% of Singapore’s Industrial Production, and semiconductors account for 38 percentage points of that. As shown below, the directional correlation between NODX and Singapore Industrial Production has been stronger since 2019 than in the previous years. Singapore’s Industrial Production for December will be announced on 26 January, and the previous two months have shown year-on-year growth, driven by the semiconductor segment.
If NODX expands in 2024 and partially recoups the 13% contraction in 2023, it would be supported by a base effect, a semiconductor recovery as discussed above, the eventuality of less tight financial conditions, in addition to the WTO maintaining overall global merchandise trade volume growth will accelerate to 3.3% in 2024, from 0.8% in 2023.
The outlooks for the most traded stocks of the iEdge SG Advanced Manufacturing Index are also heavily influenced by external economic conditions. Given the current balance of headwinds over tailwinds for these stocks, it is of no surprise that the majority of the 20 most traded stocks of the iEdge SG Advanced Manufacturing Index covered by at least three analysts, are presently trading below their Refinitiv consensus estimates. These estimates are available on the SGX Stock Screener and represent the average of individual estimates provided by analysts covering the stock with estimates typically representing an analyst's opinion of the stock performance over the next 18 months.
Nonetheless the uneven economic growth across the key segments of manufacturing and trade have provided opportunities for varied risk and return across the wide field of stocks with international revenue and manufacturing-relevant operations. Three of the 20 most traded stocks of iEdge SG Advanced Manufacturing Index are trading at price-to-books (P/B) ratios that are well above their 5 year average P/B ratios, including Yangzijiang Shipbuilding, Dyna-Mac and Food Empire, while Top Glove Corp Bhd, Medtecs International and AEM are currently trading well below their 5 year average P/B ratios.
The recent flows, performances and trading activity of the current 20 most traded stocks of the iEdge SG Advanced Manufacturing Index are tabled below.
Stock | Code | Mkt Cap S$M | YTD ADT S$M | 2023 ADT S$M | YTD TR% | YTD NIF S$M | 2023 TR % | 2023 NIF S$M | 2022 TR% | P/B (x) | 5-yr Avg P/B (x) |
YZJ Shipbldg | BS6 | 6,242 | 26.0 | 33.0 | 6.0 | 28.0 | 14.0 | 2.6 | 107.4 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
Seatrium | S51 | 7,709 | 19.9 | 39.6 | -4.2 | 4.0 | -14.5 | 80.1 | 68.3 | 0.9 | 0.8 |
ThaiBev | Y92 | 13,065 | 17.1 | 14.6 | -1.0 | 6.1 | -20.6 | -131.9 | 7.0 | 1.7 | 2.8 |
SATS | S58 | 4,278 | 14.1 | 13.0 | 4.4 | 36.0 | 2.4 | -42.4 | -27.0 | 1.8 | 2.6 |
Wilmar Intl | F34 | 20,976 | 13.4 | 21.7 | -5.9 | 1.3 | -10.5 | -48.9 | 4.7 | 0.8 | 1.1 |
ST Engineering | S63 | 11,927 | 11.4 | 14.9 | -1.5 | 5.4 | 21.2 | 110.1 | -5.7 | 4.9 | 5.2 |
Venture | V03 | 3,941 | 11.0 | 18.0 | -0.3 | 16.9 | -16.2 | -229.8 | -2.8 | 1.4 | 1.9 |
AEM | AWX | 955 | 6.3 | 5.7 | -10.7 | -10.2 | 2.3 | 32.0 | -33.3 | 1.9 | 3.9 |
Frencken | E28 | 542 | 4.5 | 4.4 | -5.9 | -0.5 | 48.0 | 17.0 | -50.6 | 1.4 | 1.5 |
UMS | 558 | 872 | 3.2 | 5.7 | -3.0 | 2.1 | 19.1 | 59.5 | -19.0 | 2.5 | 2.3 |
NIO Inc. USD OV | NIO | 16,511 | 3.1 | 2.5 | -30.2 | -3.7 | -9.1 | 3.5 | N/A | 4.8 | N/A |
Nanofilm | MZH | 524 | 2.9 | 3.8 | -11.5 | -4.2 | -33.5 | -28.9 | -63.3 | 1.4 | N/A |
Medtecs Intl | 546 | 86 | 2.7 | 1.3 | -15.6 | 0.3 | -7.0 | -3.5 | -40.4 | 0.4 | 1.2 |
Dyna-Mac | NO4 | 264 | 2.3 | 1.9 | -23.9 | -6.2 | 80.2 | 7.4 | 106.6 | 5.2 | 3.8 |
Kep Infra Tr | A7RU | 2,813 | 1.4 | 3.1 | 0.0 | -2.5 | 6.9 | -58.2 | 6.0 | 1.6 | 1.5 |
First Resources | EB5 | 2,332 | 1.2 | 3.0 | 4.2 | 3.4 | 6.9 | -3.9 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 1.7 |
Top Glove | BVA | 2,042 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.0 | 1.1 | -5.6 | 6.7 | -64.9 | 1.2 | 4.2 |
Food Empire | F03 | 601 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.9 | -1.5 | 85.8 | 14.2 | -14.1 | 1.7 | 1.2 |
Olam Group | VC2 | 3,607 | 0.9 | 2.8 | -9.1 | -1.5 | -25.0 | -12.1 | -12.1 | 0.5 | 0.7 |
Riverstone | AP4 | 978 | 0.9 | 0.9 | -6.4 | 1.2 | 31.7 | 10.1 | 9.0 | 2.0 | 3.1 |
Average | -5.7 | 8.8 | -1.2 | ||||||||
Total | 100,263 | 145 | 192 | 76 | -216 |
Already 12 sessions into 2024, the most traded 20 stocks of the Index have generated mixed returns since their median 2.4% total return of 2023. Observations include:
After posting the highest total returns of the 20 stocks in 2023, Food Empire has posted the fourth highest total returns over the past 12 sessions, after Yangzijiang Shipbuilding, SATS and First Resources. Over the past 12 sessions, four of the 20 stocks posted gains, two were unchanged and 14 stocks have posted declines.
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