• Airlines, Hospitality, and Leisure sectors led global stocks as daily new COVID cases globally stabilized. International flight bookings for ASEAN countries with easing border controls rose significantly in January ’22, with airlines expected to announce new schedules and building capacity to accommodate further ramp up, according to data from online travel company Skyscanner.
   
• Closer to home, Changi Airport passenger volumes experienced upticks in the past three months (through Dec ’21). Dec ’21 volumes +121% M-o-M to 871k passengers as VTLs positively impacted travelers movement.
   
• As borders open, SGX stocks in Consumer, Hospitality, and Travel related sectors may see renewed investors’ focus. Outlook commentary from notable companies suggest cautiously optimistic views on uptick in international travel.

Green Shoots in International Travel as Air Tickets Bookings and Passenger Volumes Grow

According to online travel company Skyscanner’s data, international flight bookings for ASEAN countries with relaxed border controls rose significantly in January. Countries such as Indonesia, Philippines, Singapore and Thailand saw return economy-class bookings from travelers in UK, U.S. and Germany rise 19-300% m-o-m in January, according to Skyscanner’s data. The firm expects airlines to announce new schedules and building capacity to facilitate the return of international travel at scale. Across the region, countries have also announced border reopening plans (see more below for more details).

In Singapore, Changi Airport passenger movement data has also seen upticks in the past three months. Notably, December ’21 Changi Airport passenger volumes grew 120.5% M-o-M to 871k and built on the +54.9% M-o-M in November. While still c. 15.3% of pre-covid monthly levels of c. 5.7 million (average 2017-2019), implementation of vaccinated travel lane (VTL) locally had a positive impact.

In the past week, Airlines, Hospitality and Leisure sectors have also led global stocks as daily new global confirmed COVID-19 cases continue to retreat from its peak in late January.

Source: Changi Airport, SGX

Most Actively-Traded SGX Stocks with Operating Assets/Businesses Tied to Reopening Theme

As border reopens, investors’ focus may shift to SGX-listed stocks which may potentially benefit from increased international travel. Apart Singapore Airlines (SIA) and SATS, the most actively traded stocks with operating assets/businesses tied to reopening theme come from sectors such as consumer discretionary (e.g. hotels, leisure, retail, F&B) and REITs.

Since end January ‘22, Singapore Airlines has gained 6.2%, Genting Singapore has gained 6.1%, CDL Hospitality Trusts has gained 8.0% which includes a divided distribution. Singapore Airlines has seen S$77 million of net institutional inflow this year, with a 6.4% price gain to S$5.34, following a 16.6% gain in 2021 on S$557 million of net institutional outflow. While Ascott Residence Trust has generated a 2.7% including a dividend distribution since 31 Jan, it has marginally outpaced CDL Hospitality Trust since completing the combination with Ascendas Hospitality Trust on 31 Dec 2019.

Notable Commentary from last Earnings Reports

Singapore Airlines (SIA): Saw recovery of international air travel in 1H FY21/22 with passenger traffic (measure in revenue passenger-kilometres) growing five-fold YoY and passenger capacity (available seat-kilometres) also up five-fold YoY to reach 32% of pre-COVID levels as of September ’21. Expecting passenger capacity to reach 43% of pre-COVID levels by December ’21.

SATS: Air cargo has already exceeded pre-COVID levels with APAC travel to reach pre-COVID levels by 2024. Retaining deep domain capabilities to support potential rebound in travel from easing of border restrictions in the region.

Mapletree Commercial Trust: Steady recovery for VivoCity in tandem with easing COVID-19 measures and strong festive spending, with tenant sales +3.7% YoY, almost reaching 90% of pre-COVID levels.

 Source: SGX, Refinitiv, Bloomberg (Data as of 11 February 2022).

Notable Border Reopenings Announcements in the Region in Recent Weeks

Australia: For first time in almost two years, all fully vaccinated visa holders (incl. tourists) can travel to the country without exemption from 21 February. International arrivals will be subject to arrival caps and quarantine requirements of each state or territory. 

Indonesia: Island of Bali has been opened to all foreign travellers from 4 February, with quarantine time for fully vaccinated visitors shortened to five days. This built on the opening of the island to an initial limited number of countries in October last year.

Malaysia: National Recovery Council (NRC) announced full opening of its borders (to all countries) without mandatory quarantine as soon as March ’22 in a bid to boost economic recovery. Full details will on requirements and standard operating procedures of border reopening will be announced soon.

Philippines: Borders re-opened to foreign tourists and for the first time in about a year. Visa-free entry resumed for arrivals from primary tourism markets while visitors holding valid visas will also be allowed entry.

Singapore: VTL scheme commenced in September ’21 and by end November the scheme has expanded to 27 countries (prior to Omicron). Continues to gradually reopen its border and restore quarantine-free travel with more countries and regions.

Thailand: Restarted quarantine-free entry program for vaccinated visitors on 1 February after a five-week suspension. Tourism represents around 20% of the country’s GDP.

Vietnam: Restrictions on international passenger flights with all markets removed with effect from 15 February, with no limitation on the number of flights