Towards Financial Freedom

DBS Equity Research: Wired Daily 13 July 2015

kiasutrader
Publish date: Mon, 13 Jul 2015, 04:19 PM
Today's Focus 

  • Singapore Strategy - Navigating through uncertainties. Stay with yield plays and stocks with high earnings visibility; go for earnings recovery and asset recycling plays 

Resumption in earnings downward revision trend, sharp correction in China equities and heightened worries of 'Grexit' saw the Singapore market returning back YTD gains in the last 2 months of 1H. With Singapore's growth prospects looking uncertain, we do not rule out the possibility of further earnings downgrades for Singapore companies. In the absence of domestic catalysts, Singapore market will continue to be driven by external events, spanning from a more volatile China equity market, developments in Greece, oil price fluctuations and shifts in expectations for timing of US rate hikes. 3Q is a seasonally volatile quarter, given that major corrections in the past 10 years tended to take place in August/September. We peg a broad trading range from 3150 to 3550 for the STI in 2H, based on 12.25x (-1SD) to 13.4x (-0.25SD) 12-mth forward PE. Stay with yield plays and stocks with high earnings visibility - Frasers Centrepoint Limited, Sheng Siong, M1, China Merchants Holdings. We are selective on REITS; our top picks are Frasers Commercial Trust and MAGIC, which are supported by resilient rental income base. We like companies that are recovery plays and those that have demonstrated an ability to raise returns via asset recycling - Del Monte, SIA, Capitaland, ST Engineering. 



As expected, Malaysia's Jun15 FFB yield eased 1% to 1.63MT/ha, as both dry season and Ramadan month began. While FFB yields declined in both Peninsular Malaysia (-1% yo- y) and East Malaysia (-1% y-o-y), the drop was not as steep as we had anticipated. Palm oil output nationwide slid by only 3% m-o-m to 1.76m MT - 14% higher than forecast. 1H15 output hence accounts for 46% of our fullyear forecast - slightly higher than the 10-year average of 45%. We anticipate El Nino-induced dryness in 4Q15 to adversely impact output, while CY15 CPO output is maintained at 19.7m MT. Near-term prices for plantation companies are likely to remain supported on lower inventory. Top picks: Bumitama Agri and Wilmar.   


CapitaLand's wholly owned serviced residence business unit, The Ascott Limited (Ascott), has entered into a 50:50 joint venture with Qatar Investment Authority (QIA) to set up a US$600m serviced residence fund with an initial focus on the Asia Pacific and Europe regions. This is Ascott's largest private equity fund to date. With a target to launch six new funds with total assets under management (AUM) of up to S$10bn by 2020, this joint venture is part of CapitaLand's efforts to further grow its fund management business and pursue market opportunities with a stable of blue chip capital partners. 

Vallianz Holdings has clinched a time charter valued at up to US$300m to supply two self elevating platforms to an existing customer in the Middle East (the NOC), which is one of the world's largest national oil companies. Both vessels are expected to be deployed from the third quarter of 2015 for a period of five years, with the customer having an option to extend the charter for another two years until 2022. 

Metech International is proposing to undertake a renounceable non-underwritten rights cum warrants issue of up to 1,406.2m new shares at an issue price of S$0.003 for each Rights Share and up to 1,406.2m free detachable warrants, with each Warrant carrying the right to subscribe for one (1) new share at the exercise price of S$0.004 per New Share, on the basis of one (1) Rights Share and one (1) Warrant for every two (2) existing shares held. 

Loyz Energy is expected to record a net loss for 4Q2015 and FY2015. This was mainly attributable to the Group accounting for a one-time, non-cash impairment of its investments in both India and United States of America. 

United Food Holdings expects to register a significant loss before tax of up to approximately RMB550m for 2QFY2015, mainly attributable to a change in the operating environment which was caused by actions taken by the Chinese authorities in China to curb serious industrial pollution. 

The Grexit saga continues as European leaders gave Greek PM 3 days to ditch his austerity principles or quit the euro. In addition to requirements to cut pensions and raise sales taxes, measures that the Greek PM accepted last week, the memo demanded that creditor representatives return to Athens with full access to ministers and a veto over relevant legislation. Euro-area leaders also want Tsipras to transfer as much as 50bil euros of state assets to an independent Luxembourg-based company for sale and make him fire workers he hired in defiance of previous bailout commitments, this according to Bloomberg.

Source: DBS 
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