Keppel Land's 4Q14/FY14 results largely met our expectations, with itsfull-year dividend of 14 cents (39% payout ratio) matching our forecast. Reiterate BUY with a higher RNAV-derived TP of SGD4.05 (11% upside). In China, it sold 1,900 homes in FY14 (4Q14: 490 units) vs 3,870 units a year ago (4Q13: 360 units). We expect demand from upgraders and first timers to be sustained for the rest of the year on the relaxation of mortgage rules and easing credit in China.
4Q14/FY14 results in line. Keppel Land recorded 4Q14/FY14 core PATMI of SGD224.3m/SGD532.2m (-11.5%/-4.1% YoY), driven mainly by divestment gains and development profits. In FY14, it divested its stakes in Marina Bay Financial Centre Tower 3, Equity Plaza and two data centres in Singapore, as well as its overseas projects - Elita Garden Vista in Kolkata, India, Al Mada Towers in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, and BG Junction, its shopping mall in Surabaya, Indonesia, unlocking SGD1bn net proceeds and lowering its net gearing to 20% (3Q14: 37%)
Highline Residences and The Glades are 30% and 34% sold respectively. Keppel Land sold about 304 residential units in Singapore (FY13: ~370 units), of which about half were from Highline Residences. Outside Singapore, the company sold about 2,100 residential units, of which about 1,900 units were in China, mostly from Central Park City, The Botanica, Stamford City and The Springdale. Buyer sentiment improved after the mortgage rule relaxation and rate cut. In Vietnam, the group saw steady home sales with about 160 units sold, mainly from The Estella and Riviera Point. The new foreign property ownership rule which will take effect from 1 July 2015 is expected to boost the market.
Our view. Trading in Keppel Land shares has been halted, with the market shrouded by privatisation chatter, which we estimate could cost Keppel Corp (KEP SP, BUY, TP: SGD11.30) SGD3.4bn-4.2bn, pegged to FY14 NTA and RNAV, if it goes through. In FY15, we expect Keppel Land to maintain its focus on growing its operations in Singapore, China, Indonesia and Vietnam. The mortgage relaxation for second-home buyers (downpayment down to 30% from 60%) and the lower mortgage rate of a 5-10% discount to the 5.6% benchmark rate in China should help sustain demand. At 0.58x P/RNAV, we maintain that the stock's valuation is undemanding. Reiterate BUY with a RNAV-derived TP of SGD4.05.