Towards Financial Freedom

M1 - Closing In On Content Carriage

kiasutrader
Publish date: Tue, 15 Apr 2014, 10:37 AM
M1's  1QFY14  results  met  expectations.  Despite  the  extended  prepaid revenue  weakness, management said it has  seen  some stabilisation in roaming revenue and expects the impact from the recent clampdown on prepaid SIMs to be mitigated by  higher top-ups  and usage. The telco is also closing in on the conditions for content carriage. We keep our BUY rating and  SGD3.65  TP  (8% WACC)  for M1  -  our Top Pick for Singapore telco exposure.  
  • In line.  M1's  1QFY14 core earnings of SGD42.8m (+3.9% y-o-y/+5.7% q-o-q)  met expectations, at 25% of our  in line with consensus  estimate.The key takeaways  from its results  call  were:  i)  FY13  capex will  remain sticky due to forward investments in LTE, and ii) the desire to maintain a good  level  of  handset  subsidy  to  protect  its  market  share.  The  telco's prepaid revenue extended  its  decline (-7.3% q-o-q/+5.6% y-o-y) due  to expired  credits  and  certain  seasonal  promotions.  W e  gather  that  the pressure  on  roaming  revenue  has  eased  with  the  lower  inter-operator interconnect rates offsetting losses on inbound roaming revenue.  
  • Tiered data adoption hits 54% in 1Q14 from 49% in 4Q13. Some 16% of tiered-data customers have exceeded their data bundles vs 9% a year ago, which contributed to the 2% y-o-y increase in postpaid ARPU.  We expect M1 to better monetise data going forward with the earlier removal of  the  discount  on  excess  data  usage. The number of tiered-data  users is projected to surpass 65% by end-2014 and 75% by end-2015. 
  • SIM card  ruling  to have slightly  negative  to neutral  impact.  M1 said the majority of its prepaid customers have less than three  SIM cards. It sees  little  downside  from  the  Government's  recent  move  to  limit  the number of SIMs a new prepaid subscriber can own, as users are likely to top  up  more  and  still  remain  active  on  their  previously-acquired  SIMs. Prepaid revenue makes up about 13% of M1's mobile revenue.
  • Maintain BUY, SGD3.65 TP. We make no changes to our forecasts and TP  on the back of  management's reaffirmed guidance.  M1 remains our top Singapore telco pick as it  has  lower competitive  and execution risks and is making good strides in monetising data.



Other Key Highlights
Closing in on content carriage  conditions. M1 said it is on track  to meet  the conditions  for  content  carriage  but  refrained  from  disclosing  the  number  of Internet protocol television  (IPTV)  subscribers on its network. It had previously targeted  10,000  subscribers  by  mid-2014,  a  key  condition  that  needs  to  be fulfilled to qualify for cross carriage. We are positive on the development as  it will level the playing field for content and allow M1 to   compete with its rivals  with a stronger bundled offering.  According to  media sources,  two-thirds of M1's IPTVsubscribers  do  not  have  pay-TV  subscriptions  on  either  SingTel  (ST  SP, NEUTRAL, TP: SGD3.55) or StarHub (STH SP, NEUTRAL, TP: SGD4.60). VoLTE  calling soon.  As  with  its  rivals,  M1  is  set  to  introduce  voice-over-LTE (VoLTE)  in  the  coming  months.  Management  expects  a  "significant improvement"  in  subscriber  experience  on  VoLTE,  as  voice  calls  will  be connected in under two seconds compared  with  5-10  seconds  experienced on 3G  currently.  The  telco  does  not  expect  the  service  to  cannibalise  its  existing voice revenue. We note that the commercialisation of VoLTE in Singapore will coincide with the launch of a voice service by Whatsapp. Capex.  M1  has  maintained  its  SGD130m  capex  guidance,  citing  the  need  for progressive LTE upgrades, the extension of  a building, as well as investments in a  new  customer  care  and  billing  system.  The  amount  excludes  the  SGD40m payment at year-end for the 2.5GHz spectrum awarded in FY13.



Financial Exhibits
 

SWOT Analysis


Company Profile
M1 is the smallest mobile operator in Singapore and an associate company of Malaysian listed Axiata Group.

Recommendation Chart
 
Source: OSK-DMG
Related Stocks
Market Buzz
Discussions
Be the first to like this. Showing 0 of 0 comments

Post a Comment