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Ezra Holdings - Studying Options To Unlock Subsea Value

kiasutrader
Publish date: Mon, 13 Jan 2014, 02:13 PM
Ezra's 1QFY14 USD6.6m core earnings (+137% y-o-y, -7% q-o-q) were in line with our estimate.  Revenue  rose  22%  y-o-y  as it carried out more subsea  work  but  overall  GPM  fell  due  to  higher  contribution  from  its lower-margin subsea unit and lower fleet utilisation  at offshore support services.  Ezra is considering options to unlock EMAS AMC's value,  but we  think  these  may  take  time  as  subsea  profitability  is  far  below  its earnings potential. Maintain SELL, with a SGD0.75 TP.
  • Revenue  higher,  but  margins  shrink.  Ezra's  1QFY14  headline  net profit  came  in  at  USD6.3m  (-6%  y-o-y,  -37%  q-o-q).  Excluding exceptional items, its core net profit of USD6.6m (+137% y-o-y, -7% q-oq)  was  in  line  with  estimates.  1QFY14  revenue  rose  22%  y-o-y  to USD340m,  buoyed  by  higher  subsea  revenue  (+USD59m).  However,GPM  weakened  to  14.9%  vs  17.9%  in  1QFY14  and  4QFY13  as  its offshore support services unit experienced lower fleet utilisation.
  • Management targets  >USD1bn new subsea orders annually.  Ezra's backlogged orders total  >USD2bn and the company is now bidding for a record USD9bn worth of new jobs globally.
  • Low  contribution  from  Lewek  Constellation  in  FY14.  The  ice-class multi-lay  DP3  vessel  is  in  transit  to  China  to  install  the  3,000-tonne Huisman  crane, and  will head for  its maiden project  for  VAALCO Gabon for the expansion of the Etame Marin Field .  After  that, it  will  head for  a shipyard  again  to  install  a  pipelay  tower.  We  estimate  that  Lewek Constellation  will only be available for two to  three months in FY14. The total cost of the vessel is now estimated at USD550m.
  • Reviewing several initiatives to unlock value.  Management  is  looking at several proposals to unlock  value in its subsea unit, EMAS AMC,  and we believe a spinoff is possible.
  • Maintain  SELL,  with  a  SGD0.75  TP.  The  weak  results  reinforce  our SELL call on the stock, whose  valuations  remain rich at  26x FY14F P/E, 14x EV/EBITDA and 1.0x P/BV.  Our TP is based on 0.6x FY14F P/BV. We think it is too early to turn positive, while unlocking value from EMAS AMC may be challenging unless subsea earnings improve significantly.

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Company Profile
Ezra is a leading integrated offshore support solutions provider for the oil and gas industry with strong expertise in the mid/deepwater market.

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