Welcome to our inaugural issue of 'Staying Connected', which captures news, views and developments within the regional telecoms space. We hope to eventually transform the monthly bulletin into a value-added product offering insightful investment ideas (feedback is welcome). Thailand's political impasse is weighing on the SET and Thai telco stocks have skimmed off their 52-week lows, with P/E and EV/EBITDA metrics now the cheapest in our universe. Investors should accumulate ADVANC and DTAC as the sector's structural growth theme remains intact. Maintain O/W on Thai telcos.
Malaysia
- TM, Celcom and DiGi in pact (14 Dec)
- Maxis' new CEO ready to take on massive task (7 Dec)
- YTL Comms will reach more direct customers to break even (6 Dec)
Singapore
- Bharti set to exit Sri Lankan market (18 Dec)
- M1 to raise excess data charge from Jan 2014 (6 Dec)
- StarHub completes Asia's first voice over LTE (VoLTE) trials (4 Dec)
Indonesia
- Telkom says Flexi migration will take two years (20 Dec)
- Data services access in Jakarta unsatisfactory (18 Dec)
- Indosat expects 25% growth in IT services revenue for 2014 (10 Dec)
Thailand
- TOT feels pain of government in limbo (18 Dec)
- NBTC nudges True to speed up 3G migration (16 Dec)
- CAT Telecom reports THB300m in electrical damages (3 Dec)
Global
- Amazon finds local infra partners for China cloud service (19 Dec)
- Dish mulls T-Mobile US bid (19 Dec)
- EU officially launches 5G industry group (17 Dec)
Malaysia (UNDERWEIGHT)
TM, Celcom and DiGi in pact
Telekom Malaysia (TM) expects some MYR400m and MYR600m in revenue over 10 to 15 years from its wholesale bandwidth collaboration with Celcom Axiata and DiGi.Under the agreement, TM will provide wholesale bandwidth connectivity via TM NextGen Backhaul Services for aggregation and access sites jointly owned by Celcom and DiGi, covering between 3,000 and 5,000km in Peninsular Malaysia. TM will support Celcom and DiGi's transmission requirements, while enabling both companies to optimise cost and efficiently utilise its infrastructure. The first phase of the collaboration will be from 2014 to 2016 followed by the second phase deployment of additional sites for mobile access and aggregator sites across the peninsula. (StarBiz, 14 Dec)
Maxis CEO to engage public via Twitter
Maxis' new CEO Morten Lundal will take to Twitter to reach out to the public. Maxis said through its official Twitter account that Lundal will take questions and feedback on 20 Dec from 11am to noon on the Twitter hashtag #MortenMaxis. A spokesperson from Maxis said the move was part of the company's customer engagement process and that Lundal was open to new ways to engage. Lundal now joins one of the few CEOs of listed companies to engage through Twitter; AirAsia CEO Tan Sri Tony Fernandes also maintains a Twitter account. (StarBiz, 17 Dec)
Maxis' new CEO ready to take on massive task
Maxis CEO Morten Lundal wants to spend MYR1.1bn in capital expenditure this year and MYR1bn next year, up from MYR850m this year, and a lot will go into branding, product innovation and network. He wants the network to improve from "good to great'' and wants the touch points with customers improved. "We will probably underperform the market for a few more quarters. But not too many. I see Maxis growing positively but only mildly. I also see us growing our margins but on the
weaker side because we will invest more. We will invest MYR1bn each year and keep our 40 sen per share dividend commitment. I see 2014 as a transition year and 2015 as year of performance,'' Lundal says. (StarBiz, 7 Dec)
YTL Comms will reach more direct customers to break even
YTL Communications SB's hopes to break even in the next few years will rest on reaching more direct customers in various parts of the country where it has set up base stations. YTL Power International executive director Datuk Yeoh Seok Hong hoped the subsidiary could turn in a profit from next year but gave an estimated five years for it to recoup its infrastructure investments. The 4G telco is in collaboration with the government under the 1BestariNet Entry Point Project to roll out a nationwide virtual learning platform for primary and secondary public schools. The platform is operated by FrogAsia, a unit under YTL. (StarBiz, 6 Dec)
YTL partners with Intel to bring in more 4G devices
YTL group of companies managing director Tan Sri Francis Yeoh said the collaboration with Intel will bring more 4G integrated devices to the market. YTL Communications and Intel Malaysia have announced that they will introduce more Intel-based 4G laptops and tablets in the near future for Chrome and Android platforms for the education sector in Malaysia. The new devices will be able to connect to both WiMax and long term evolution (LTE) networks, and will automatically switch between the two seamlessly, based on availability. YTL plans to launch its LTE network by next year. (StarBiz, 5 Dec)
Malaysian telcos to achieve 700 MHz spectrum by 2018
Telecommunication companies in Malaysia will achieve the 700 MHz spectrum by 2018 to increase the level of services for customers, said the Malaysian Communications and Multimedia Commission (MCMC). Chairman Datuk Mohamed Sharil Tarmizi said the 700 MHz spectrum or frequency was now used by broadcasting services and that there were a few steps that needed to be done before it could be applied to telecommunications services. (StarBiz, 4 Dec)
Sector View
We are UNDERWEIGHT on the Malaysian telco sector due to the steep valuations of the stocks and the lack of clear sector rerating catalysts. Our preferred pick is Axiata as we expect it to benefit in the longer-term from XL's merger with Axis and the unlocking of value from the listing of its towerco.
Singapore (NEUTRAL)
Bharti set to exit Sri Lankan market
Bharti Airtel, an associate of SingTel, is close to selling its operations in Sri Lanka to UAE-based telco Etisalat, the third largest operator in the country. Sources said an announcement from Bharti is expected soon with media reports quoting the price tag to be USD110-130m. The Sri Lankan operation has garnered less than 2m subscribers since 2009, despite an investment of USD300m. Bharti places much of the blame for the poor showing on local regulations, which it claims does not give it enough flexibility on tariffs, and also cites frequency interference problems.(Telecoms Asia, 18 Dec)
SingTel fined SGD220k for mio-TV outage
SingTel's mio-TV has been hit with a SGD220k fine for its May 2013 outage by the Media Development Authority (MDA) - breaking yet another record for fines meted out by the regulator. The island-wide service disruption, which coincided with a crucial English Premier League match between Arsenal and Wigan on 15 May, lasted nine hours and affected some 26,000 mio TV subscribers. This is mio TV's third breach of its quality of service obligations in two years. The operator's previous two service disruptions drew fines of SGD80k and SGD180k respectively. (BT, 13 Dec)
M1 to raise excess data charge from Jan 2014
M1 has joined SingTel and StarHub in raising the rates for excess mobile data use, in the latest demonstration that data is king. M1 customers will have to pay twice as much if they use more than what their data bundle allows. According to its website, the new rate of SGD10.70 for each gigabyte (GB), capped at SGD188.32 a month, will kick in from Jan 2014. Currently, it charges SGD5.35 per GB, capped at SGD94.16 per month. SingTel was the first to end its promotional excess data rates in September. Since then, its customers have been paying twice as much for exceeding their data bundles - at SGD10.70 per GB, capped at SGD188.32 a month. (Strait Times, 6 Dec)
StarHub completes Asia's first voice over LTE (VoLTE) trials StarHub has successfully completed the first Voice over LTE (VoLTE) call based on a live network in South-East Asia. The operator implemented Nokia Solutions and Networks' comprehensive end-to-end approach for providing voice call services over LTE. "StarHub's landmark VoLTE achievement today reaffirms our commitment towards delivering an unparalleled user experience to our subscribers, who will soon enjoy crystal clear voice calls in HD over StarHub's 4G and 3G network anytime, anywhere," according to Chan Kin Hung, head of personal solutions at StarHub.(Strait Times, 4 Dec)
Sector View
We are NEUTRAL on the Sing telco sector due to: i) opex pressures, ii) competitive headwinds, and iii) valuations straddling the upper end of the historical range. We expect the telcos' share prices to be well supported by their comfortable dividend yields of 4-5% and the likelihood of capital management. Our preferred exposure is M1.
Indonesia (NEUTRAL)
Telkom says Flexi migration will take two years
Telkom expects the migration of its 12m Telkom Flexi (CDMA) customers to Telkomsel to take two years. This is based on the expectations of the government approving the use of the 850MHz spectrum in 2014 for Telkomsel. The company plans to utilise the frequency to strengthen Telkomsel's network, especially in Eastern Indonesia. (Indonesia Finance Today, 20 Dec)
FDD LTE adoption in 2015
The government will open the frequency division duplexing long term evolution (FDDLTE) technology adoption in 2015. The application of this technology will be delayed because the government had prioritised the rearrangement of the 1800Mhz spectrum which will be followed by the issuance of the FDD-LTE spectrum in 2014. (Indonesia Finance Today, 19 Dec)
Data services access in Jakarta unsatisfactory
Jakarta is ranked 12 out of 17 major cities in the world based on the success rate of the download service toward demanded data of smartphone users. It is based on t he coverage application used by smartphones users from Ericsson Mobility Report by Nov 2013. This research used data compilation from Speedtest.net during that period. There are eight cities that cannot meet the minimum 160 kbps for music streaming services. The eight cities include Lagos (Nigeria), Shanghai (China), Jakarta (Indonesia), Beijing (China), Cairo (Egypt), Moscow (Russia), Sao Paulo (Brazil) and New Delhi (India). (Indonesia Finance Today, 18 Dec)
Indosat sets aside funds to join fourth stage of 3G auction
Indosat has set aside funds to participate in the auction of the additional 3G spectrum to be returned following the merger between XL Axiata and A xis. The auction is scheduled to be conducted by the Ministry of Communication and Information in 1Q14. According to Alexander Rusli, its president director, the company will not directly activate the block if it successfully secures the additional spectru m as the current bandwidth is still sufficient. (Indonesia Finance Today, 17 Dec)
Telkom targets fixed broadband revenue growth of 13% in 2014
Telkom is targeting revenue growth in its fixed broadband or cable-based internet business to reach 13% in 2014. The company estimates growth in the fixed broadband business to be higher than the 10.5% growth in the industry. In the 3Q13, there were approximately 2.9bn Speedy customers and 9.3m fixed line users. Average revenue per user (ARPU) of Speedy was IDR137k (USD11.40). Broadband data services grew by 36.5%, voice services by 4.6% and short message service (SMS) by 5% in 3Q13 versus the same period last year. (Indonesia Finance Today, 13 Dec)
Indosat expects 25% growth in IT services revenue for 2014
Indosat is targeting more than 25% growth in its IT services segment for 2014. The growth will be driven by new services in the small and medium enterprises (SMEs) segment and corporations called Indosat Business. The company's corporate and SME segments consist of three services, namely connectivity, IT services and mobility with the connectivity segment contributing about 80%. Indosat's corporate and SMEs segments grew by double digits in the last three years. The group's IT businesses are included under the group's fixed data or multimedia internet data (MIDI) segment. (Indonesia Finance Today, 10 Dec)
Sector View
We rate the Indonesian telco sector a NEUTRAL given the combination of: i) macro-economic/political headwinds, ii) earnings pressure from higher data opex/decelerating revenue growth, and iii) sustained capex spending. We are OVERWEIGHT on the independent tower companies (ITCs) for their sturdy earnings prospects. Telkom and TBIG are our top picks.