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DBSV S'pore Wired Daily 6 November 2013

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Publish date: Wed, 06 Nov 2013, 07:10 PM

Today's Focus

Cosco Corp - Dragged by cost overruns; downgrade to FULLY VALUED, TP cut to S$0.76

Sembcorp Marine - 3Q earnings below on weak margins. Maintain HOLD and S$4.80 TP

UOB - Stable year ahead. Maintain HOLD, S$21.90 TP

3Q13 earnings for Cosco Corporation were below on massive provision for cost overruns, the worst quarter since 2008. Earnings disappointment and overhang from drillship legal case may pressure share price. We have slashed our below consensus FY13F/14F earnings by a further 31%/23% to account for the provisions for cost overruns. Downgrade to FULLY VALUED, TP cut to S$0.76 (Prev S$0.83). Short-term technical resistance at $0.78 with downside bias to $0.76 followed by S$0.71.

3Q net earnings for Sembcorp Marine were below despite strong topline growth as operating margins declined 1.8ppts q-o-q to 10.0%. We have trimmed FY13E/14F net earnings by 8%/7% as we have assumed lower EBIT margins and lower assoc income. New orders on track; order book stands at S$13.5bn. Re-rating catalysts could come from margin recovery and strong order wins.
Maintain HOLD and S$4.80 TP.

3Q13 net profit for UOB largely in line with provisions slightly lower than expected; one-off gains from AFS securities lifted earnings. Stable NIM and loan growth as expected; higher fixed deposit growth enhanced both overall loan-to-deposit and S$ loan-to-deposit ratios. We expect a stable year ahead. NIM is expected to remain stable from here with possible upside over time. Loan growth should end the year in the low-to-mid teens but at a moderated pace in 2014. Regional growth remains in focus. Maintain HOLD, S$21.90 TP.

SATS' 2Q14 earnings slightly below, affected by Qantas' rerouting, lower contribution from subsidiary and higher staff costs. Interim DPS of 5 Scts in line with expectations. SATS is still on track to meet our forecast, supported by positive operating drivers. Maintain HOLD and S$3.29 TP.

Broadway Industrial's3Q13 profits missed forecast; rightsizing and year-end ramp up were not up to speed. Margins were compressed. Broadway has met only 25% of our full year estimates as of 9M13. A 2H rebound would be challenging as HDD is expected to be flat for another year while non-HDD is taking longer to cultivate and the group's move of right-sizing operations is moving slower than desired. Our analyst has cut FY13/14F earnings by 44-49%. Maintain Hold, TP cut to S$0.25 (Prev S$ 0.30) (0.5x P/BV).

Vard Holdings reported revenue of NOK 2.37bn and EBITDA of NOK 103m for 3Q 2013. EBITDA margin of 4.4% still weighed down by Brazil operations. Vard secured record order intake of NOK 7.95 bn in 3Q 2013. Its new shipyard in Brazil, Vard Promar, is ramping up production. Positive
outlook for new order wins for the remainder of 2013 and going into 2014, notwithstanding a highly competitive market.

Vard Holdings has signed a new contract for the construction of a survey vessel for Circle Maritime Invest JSC (CMI). The value is approximately NOK 55m. The vessel, to be built at Vard Braila shipyard in Romania, will be delivered in 3Q 2014. Sinotel Technologies is expected to record a net loss for
3QFY2013 and 9MFY2013. The expected loss was mainly attributable to:
(i) the decrease in contribution from outdoor wireless coverage solutions and emergency mobile communications system (EMCS);
(ii) a potential impairment of plant and equipment of the Group; and
(iii) potential allowance for doubtful trade receivables. Delong Holdings expects to report a net loss for 3Q13, mainly due to (i) impairment charges and provision made for doubtful debts. Delong's core business activities remained profitable in 3Q2013.

Samko Timber expects to report a net loss for 3Q13, mainly due to unrealised foreign exchange loss incurred and lower gross profit margin achieved.

JES International has entered into an agreement to invest in potential mining assets as it is acquiring up to 30% stake in Mineriver for S$127.0m. Mineriver is in the process of acquiring mineral exploration rights, and later the mining rights, for metals and minerals (including Magnesium and
Nickel) in Xinjiang, China; and also to consider future listing on a recognised stock exchange.

Singapore's October PMI rose to 51.2 from 50.5 in September. This signals a stronger-than-expected pick-up in manufacturing activity, underpinned by further expansion in new orders, new export orders and higher output. Electronics manufacturers, whose output surged 20% in September, also reported higher activity levels in the latest PMI survey.

The electronics PMI rose to 51 in October from 50.3 in September. Sub-indices showed growth in both local and foreign new orders, as well as higher output. Globally, the latest PMIs for the US, Europe, China, Korea and Taiwan, which have all shown expansion in manufacturing, bode well
for an export recovery too.

US markets fell but came off session lows ahead of the release of advance 3Q GDP tomorrow and October employment numbers on Friday. 3Q GDP is seen expanding 2%, down from 2.5% the previous quarter while non-farm payrolls are expected to dip to 125k from 148k in September.

October's ISM non-manufacturing index unexpectedly rose to 55.4 from 54.5 the prior month. Meanwhile, the EU trimmed euro-area growth forecast next year. GDP is expected to rise by 1.1% in 2014, less than the 1.2% forecasted earlier.

Source: DBSV
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