Towards Financial Freedom
Keppel REIT - Most Undervalued Office REIT
We initiate coverage on KREIT with a BUY. Using DCF with terminal growth rate assumption of 3.0%, blended COE of 9.3% (with a 3% riskfree rate, 0.8x beta and 7.88% equity risk premium), we arrive at a SGD1.66 TP. We expect KREIT shares to re-rate over the medium-term, as its portfolio will likely benefit from Singapore's low incoming supply of new commercial assets and its high-yielding Australian assets.
- Strong income stream. With a weighted average lease to expiry (WALE) of 6.6 years and long term lease (>five years) accounting for 40% of its portfolio, coupled with revenue hedge for its Australian exposure, KREIT's earnings downside risks appear limited.
- Improving stock liquidity, better acquisition currency. The restructuring of Keppel Group's holdings and its subsequent stake reduction in KREIT has helped improved the latter's liquidity, with its estimated free float now at 46% (below 25% during its initial years). Not only does this allow greater investor participation, but it also enables greater capital flexibility for potential acquisitions.
- Recent sharp share price drop an overreaction. Amidst the volatility in the capital markets since May - whereby the STI index fell 7% and the FSSTREIT index dropped 17.8% - KREIT suffered a 23.6% correction. We see this as overdone, as it implies an 88% decline in KREIT's forward rental cycle, coupled with a 25% correction in the AUD, all of which points to an overreaction. Hence, we see an excellent opportunity to accumulate a great value REIT with substantial upside.
Source: OSK
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CS Tan
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
