Today's Focus
Emerging markets sell-off add to near-term uncertainty
Singapore banks - Better visibility, raised to overweight
The sell-down in emerging markets of Indonesia and Thailand added to an already uncertain environment brought about by the likelihood that the FED will start its QE tapering process soon even as the 2Q results season failed to inspire. Bank of Indonesia's announcement that the country's current account deficit ballooned to USD9.8bil lifted the 10-yr government bond yield higher by 18bps to 8.37% and a decline in the rupiah to 10,588 against the USD. The Jakarta Composite Index plunged 5.6% to 4313 on volumes 32% higher than the 30-day average. Technically, near-term resistance at 4400 caps any immediate bounce and there is downside to 3950 in coming week(s).
Thailand's SETI slumped 3.2% to 1398 after the country slipped into a technical recession in 2Q as GDP for the quarter contracted 0.3% and the Thai central bank cut its 2013 GDP growth forecast to 4.2% from 5.1% citing weak exports. The Thai baht slipped 0.3% to 31.36 against the USD.
While Singapore's STI is seen holding out better (i.e. outperforming) relative to the latest sell-down among these emerging market indices, some impact is still expected that aggravates the current choppy environment. The Jardine Group of companies weighed down on the STI yesterday. The index's decline tested the near-term support at 3170 for the STI. Immediate resistance is at 3210. If the STI falls below 3170, the next 2 immediate support levels are c.3130 and c.3100.
We are raising Singapore banks to overweight. Besides improved prospects in 2014 coupled with possible interest rate hikes, we believe Singapore banks provide a flight-tosafety theme in the near term, especially when compared with its ASEAN counterparts. We have imputed NIM (net interest margin) recovery and stronger earnings growth for 2014. NIM has reached an inflection point, and we see potential recovery in 2014. 2013 earnings will be subdued on flat NIM and normalised provisions. We prefer OCBC (BUY, TP: S$ 12.40). UOB remains a HOLD (TP: S$ 21.90).
For Yanlord Land,investors continue to focus on the long term growth, land acquisition, and sales. Although Yanlord will continue to focus on the high-end market, it is adapting to tighter regulations by shifting focus to upgrade demand, and speeding up construction to drive c.20% CAGR in presales from 2012-2017. Our analyst expects decent August presales; maintain HOLD rating with S$1.24 TP.
China Geological Exploration Holdings, a company ultimately owned by the Geo-exploration and Mineral Development Bureau of the Henan Province, is planning to list some of its mining assets via a reverse take-over (RTO) of SGX Mainboard-listed China Mining International. Subsequent to the RTO, China Mining International will be the first PRC government-backed mining company listed on SGX China Geological Exploration has access to a strong pipeline of mining assets from the Geo-exploration and Mineral Development Bureau of the Henan Province for injection into China Mining International.
Albedo has entered into a non-binding MOU exclusively with Temasya Cergas, which would see Albedo buying five parcels of land in Iskandar, Malaysia, totalling approximately 762 acres (308 hectares). Albedo will pay for the land by allotment and issuance of new shares. The freehold land is slated for integrated business park, commercial and residential development.
KrisEnergyannounced that together with Mubadala Petroleum, it has agreed on the final investment decision for the Nong Yao oil development in the G11/48 contract area in the Gulf of Thailand. First oil is anticipated in the first half 2015.
Centurion Corporation, a provider of workers' accommodation in Singapore and Malaysia under the Westlite brand, is upbeat about its outlook. The group said at a financial results briefing yesterday that the industry landscape remains favourable. While demand for quality workers' accommodation is strong, there is an inadequate supply of such purpose-built dormitories in suitable locations.
F J Benjamin and Guess?, Inc. have entered into agreements to renew the retail and distribution agreement of Guess as well as the franchise agreement of Guess Accessory Stores for Singapore, Malaysia and Indonesia to 31 December 2019, with options to renew for an additional 5 years to 31 December 2024. In a move that might improve liquidity and entice retail investors back into the market, the Singapore Exchange (SGX) is proposing to reduce the standard size of securities traded from 1,000 units to 100 units, and one unit eventually. With the change, blue chips will be more accessible.
Source: DBSV