Towards Financial Freedom

DBSV S'pore Wired Daily 12 August 2013

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Publish date: Mon, 12 Aug 2013, 10:43 AM
Today's Focus
Wilmar - Fairly valued; downgrade to HOLD, TP cut to S$3.46

Biosensors - Margins, earnings set to decline; downgrade to HOLD, TP cut to S$1.09

Ezion - 2Q results beat expectations; maintain BUY with higher TP of S$3.20

Wilmar's 2Q13 core earnings of US$245m (+42% y-o-y; -22% q-o-q) were below; S$0.025 interim DPS was declared. The results were dragged down by softer contributions from all segments, except Palm & Lauric M&P. We expect seasonal pick up in 2H13; but FY13F-15F earnings cut by 1-4% on lower volumes; TP cut to S$3.46. Cut Rating to HOLD; seasonally higher earnings are mostly priced in.

1Q14 results for Biosensorswere below expectations on revenue and margin declines. Margins are expected to decline further on China price cuts and lower licensing revenue. Our analyst has cut FY14F/FY15F earnings by 33%17%.Downgrade to HOLD with TP cut to S$1.09 (Prev S$ 1.64).

Ezion's 2Q results beat expectations. Margins were better than expected. We have raised FY13/14F net profit by 11%/3%. Ezion is on track for an additional 6 deliveries in 2H. Maintain BUY with higher TP of S$3.20 (Prev S$ 2.96).

Noble Group's 2Q13 results disappoint as Agriculture segment remained in the red. However, we expect sequential improvement for Agriculture. Maintain HOLD with lower TP of S$0.93 (Prev S$ 1.00) as FY13/14F earnings were reduced by 14%/10%. 

1H13 net profit of HK$304m (+37% y-o-y) for China Merchants Hldgs (Pacific) was slightly ahead of our expectations. Core earnings growth was driven by both contributions from newly acquired Beilun Port E'way and organic growth. Interim DPS of 2.75Scts (same as last year) was declared. Maintain BUY and S$1.07 TP; the stock offers an attractive yield of 6.6%.

1Q14 results for Ascendas Hospitality Trust were significantly below forecasts. Execution of growth strategy was not going as well as expected. We have cut FY14/15F by 19%/15%. Maintain HOLD, TP lowered to S$0.80 (Prev S$ 1.00).

Far East Hospitality Trust's 2Q13 results were below our expectations. We see near term operational challenges but expect improvement ahead. Maintain BUY, TP lowered S$1.08 (Prev S$ 1.21).

NOL's 2Q13 net loss of US$34.6m was in line with estimates, after adjusting for one-offs. Declining volumes and freight rates offset to an extent by cost control measures and lower bunker fuel prices. Despite encouraging macro data from the US, industry demand supply gap leaves little room to expect any significant or sustainable freight rate increases. Maintain HOLD with lower TP of S$1.13 (1x P/BV) (Prev S$ 1.19).

Yangzijiang's2Q13 results were slightly above; 1H made up 52% of our full year forecast. Order wins are likely to beat expectations for this year. We expect sustainable dividends; pegged to 5% of NTA. Maintain HOLD, TP S$1.02.

Vard Holdings has secured contracts with joint ventures of DOF Subsea and Technip for the design and construction of four Pipe Lay Support Vessels (PLSVs). The contracts constitute the largest order in VARD's history, with an aggregate order value of approximately US$ 1.1 bn (NOK 6.5 bn).

The Myanmar Department of Civil Aviation (DCA) announced that Incheon Airport Group has successfully tendered for the US$1.1b development of Hanthawaddy International Airport (HIA). Yongnam's consortium has been appointed as the backup tenderer. Separately, according to the Myanmar business network website, Pioneer Aerodrome Services consortium is the successful bidder for the Yangon International Airport development project (see attached). With that, Yongnam has essentially lost both Myanmar airport projects.

State-owned company China Railway Corp (CSR) will spend more than RMB50bil in its first large-scale train purchases that includes locomotives, bullet trains and rolling stock to meet rising transport demand, this according to Xinhua News Agency. The orders come after China's government pledged last month to speed up rail investment, especially in the nation's central and western regions, to promote urbanization and help boost economy. The call for tenders for bullet trains, which Xinhua said CSR will make soon, will end the interruption in place since the 2011 high-speed train crash near Wenzhou that killed 40 people. CSR will also increase its annual investment in fixed assets by RMB10bil to RMB660bil. China will add 5,500km of new track this year that brings the total to more than 100,000km by end-2013, prompting CSR to expand capacity. Expect shares of Midasto be underpinned by the news.

Cordlife has launched its newest service, umbilical cord tissue banking in the Philippines. This move capitalises on the fast rising Philippines middle class, where per capita disposable income is projected to increase 157% from 2007 to 2015 and is in line with Cordlife's growth plans to offer complementary services to its clients.

Singapore's 2Q GDP growth was revised to 3.8% y-o-y vs the advance estimate of 3.7%. The economy grew faster than previously estimated in the second quarter due to increased manufacturing output which was supported by the biomedical and electronics sectors. Output in the manufacturing sector rose 0.2% y-o-y in the second quarter compared with a 6.9% contraction reported earlier. Services sector output grew 5.5% while the construction sector expanded 5.1%. The government revised upward its full-year growth forecast range to 2.5% to 3.5% as against the earlier estimate of 1.0% to 3.0%. 

The current 2Q earnings season that ends this week is unlikely to result in any meaningful upward revision to STI forward earnings. There is a c.20pt reduction thus far to STI's FY13 and FY14 forward PE levels. Consensus FY13F EPS growth for the STI now registers a 0.6% dip y-o-y while that for FY14F still reads a positive 9.6% y-o-y. 

The lack of upward earnings revision in the current 2Q result season, uncertainty over the timing of QE tapering and concerns about China slowdown is likely to keep STI contain at or below 13.9x (average) 12-mth forward PE in the weeks/month ahead. This still leads to c.3430 by yearend with near-term support at 3170. 

But with investors becoming more fixated in second guessing when the FED will start QE tapering (consensus September), we expect the current choppy trend to continue in the weeks ahead. We maintain our view that the correction triggered by QE tapering talk back in May ended at 3066. Unless fresh macro uncertainties strike, we do not expect a re-test of this level.

Courts Asia has identified the site of its second "Big-Box" Megastore in Klang Valley, Kuala Lumpur and at the same time secured two new sites in Sabah, East Malaysia. This completes the Group's nationwide retail coverage in Malaysia. Together, these sites will increase Courts Asia's retail footprint in Malaysia by 17%.


Cityneon Holdingshas been awarded a RMB129m contract for the Show Element Fabrication and Installation Supervision work in an international theme park in the Pudong Area of Shanghai. This will contribute positively to the results for FY13.

Source: DBSV 
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