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DBSV S'pore Wired Daily 5 July 2013

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Publish date: Fri, 05 Jul 2013, 11:17 AM
Today's Focus
Bumitama Agri - Earnings growth to accelerate; reiterate BUY, TP: S$ 1.23
Yangzijiang - Secured US$414m contracts in 2Q13

Our analyst expects earnings growth for Bumitama Agri to accelerate. For 2Q13, earnings are expected to jump by 39-46% q-o-q on the back of c.7% increase in CPO sales volume, c.3% recovery in CPO prices, 1% Rupiah depreciation, and a slight decline in the group's unit sales expense. Overall, he forecasts earnings to expand at 31% CAGR over the next three years, driven by CPO price recovery and 9.8% CPO sales volume CAGR. YTD, the counter has underperformed the STI by 3.7% but outperformed Singapore peers. He believes the weak CPO prices have been priced in and there is limited downside from here. Reiterate BUY call; TP: S$ 1.23.

Golden Agri Resourcesis building its own destination markets, and expanding downstream. It may finalise acquisition of 16k ha of oil palm estates (planted) by end 3Q13. Watch out for more corporate action. Our estimated fair value is S$0.53/share.

Yangzijiang has secured 15 bulk carrier contracts amounted to US$414m in 2Q13, from customers in Europe and Asia. This brings its YTD wins to US$1.01bn, on track to meet our assumption of US$2bn for FY13. We expect these projects to yield low to mid single digit margins. In additions, Yangzijiang has a total of 51 options outstanding, worth US$2.64bn, including 22 options for containerships worth US$1.56bn and 29 options for bulk carriers worth US$1.08bn. We estimate Yangzijiang's orderbook to stand at US3bn as of end of 1H13, taking into account the latest wins. 

Separately, Yangzijiang also announced the acquisition of the remaining 49% stake in Changbo yard for Rmb110m or 0.8x P/BV. Changbo yard is temporarily closed down due to the diminishing orderbook. We understand management is firming up strategies for reactivation of Changbo yard.  On the industry outlook, the rebound of BDI to 1100 levels, dwindling of orderbook to fleet ratio below15% and attractive new build prices have led to the uptick in YTD contract awards (+80% y-o-y). This will likely sustain into 2H taking cue from the strong enquiry levels. The surfacing of news on shipyard closures and / or capacity cut in China is deemed positive as massive yard closures is a precursor of industry recovery. These are positive signs of early recovery phase. We are putting our Hold recommendation and S$1.02 TP under review.

United Engineersplans to sell a mixed-use industrial development to the proposed Viva Industrial Real-Estate Investment Trust for S$518m. United Engineers has signed a conditional agreement to sell UE BizHub East--comprising two business-park buildings, a 251-room hotel and a convention center--to Viva Industrial Trust Management, the manager of the proposed REIT. United Engineers expects to pocket S$86.7m in net post-tax gains from the sale.

Standard & Poor's Ratings Services withdrew all the ratings for Frasers Commercial Trust, at the company's request. At the time of the withdrawal, the outlook was stable.

AusGroup has been awarded a three year plus three month extension on their calciner overhaul and maintenance contract with Alcoa of Australia. The estimated value of this extension is AU$36m. With this contract award, AusGroup's order book now stands at AU$252m.


Old Chang Keeannounced that the controlling shareholder of the company said that he and his associate have expressed an interest to enter into a possible stake sale of the company to a third party.

Source: DBSV
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