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DBSV S'pore Wired Daily 13 May 2013

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Publish date: Mon, 13 May 2013, 11:03 AM

Today's Focus
Thai Beverage - Initiating coverage with a BUY recommendation and target price of S$0.80

F&N - Cash payout of S$3.28/share; maintain HOLD, TP revised up to S$9.52

Mapletree Greater China Commercial Trust - Earnings resilience backed by stable performance at Festival Walk; BUY with higher TP S$1.22

DBSV Research is initiating coverage on Thai Beverage with a BUY recommendation and target price of S$0.80, offering 30% total return upside on regional F&B player in the making. Thai Bev is a market leader in spirits, green tea and established distribution network in Thailand. We expect continued re-rating to global/regional peers average. The potential inclusion in MSCI could be a catalyst.

The F&N Board has proposed a cash distribution of S$3.28/share (total of S$4.73bn) via a proposed capital reduction exercise. This accounts for c.85% of APB sales proceeds of S$5.59bn. The timing of this capital reduction is not surprising given expectations that its controlling shareholders would be looking at extracting cash to pare down debt that was undertaken for the takeover. F&N's 2Q13 results were flat but within expectations. We expect a stronger 2H on overseas property recognition. We expect limited downside on the share price backed by its proposed S$3.28/share cash distribution, and stable earnings with its S$3.3bn in unrecognized revenue from presold development properties. Maintain HOLD, TP revised to S$9.52 (Prev S$ 8.99).

Mapletree Greater China Commercial Trust's Festival Walk continues to show resilience in tenant trades. Our latest checks with management showed that the property continued to enjoy a 9% y-o-y growth in tenant sales from Jan-Mar 13 (up from 6% y-o-y expansion in the previous quarter). Over the next few quarters, we believe organic growth would remain the strongest drivers. With 80% of FY14 lease expiries at Festival Walk already locked in and one thirds of renewals at Gateway Plaza already re-contracted, earnings visibility and sustainability is strong. Maintain Buy, TP S$1.22 (Prev S$ 1.18). The trust is offering yields of 4.7% in FY14 and 5.3% in FY15.

9M12 earnings of RM 136m (+17%) for Silverlake Axis were in line. FY13F/14F/15F earnings raised 6%/14%/19% on the back of recent acquisition and new project pipeline. Maintain BUY, TP raised to S$0.80 (Prev S$ 0.58) offering 14% potential returns over the next one year.

1Q13 results for Pan-United Corporation in line, driven by volume increases in Building Materials segment and higher utilisation at CXP port. We expect construction activities to rise and earnings growth is set to accelerate in FY14F. We are neutral to PAN whether it increases, maintains or decreases its CXP stake. Maintain BUY with S$1.16 TP.

Earnings for UOLdeclined y-o-y on lower residential recognition, and accounted for 16% of our full year forecast. We expect earnings to be back end loaded this year, with 2 residential projects to receive TOP this year (1in Q2, 1 in Q4) and the launch of the Bright Hill Dr and St Patrick's Garden sites in 3Q13. The group has launched a delisting and exit offer for the remaining stake in Pan Pacific Hotels Group (PPHG) at SS$2.55/share. The offer price is 3% lower than the Dec 12 RNAV of S$2.64 and at a 65.5% premium to its book NTA of S$1.54. The privatisation of PPHG gives more operational flex and potential for RNAV expansion. Maintain BUY, TP raised to S$8.21 (Prev S$ 7.77).

3Q13 net profit of US$4.1m (-25% y-o-y, -14% q-o-q) for Amtek came in 50% below our forecasts. Tooling sales were robust but outlook is dragged by the uncertain end demand. FY13/14F earnings cut by 19%/16% to reflect lower margin and higher tax rate. Maintain Fully Valued, TP lowered to S$0.45 (Prev S$ 0.46) following earnings cut and a rollover to blended FY13/14F from FY13 previously.

Nam Cheong's 1Q13 earnings were largely in line at RM35.8m, up 8% y-o-y. Revenue was up 14% to RM235m on the back of delivery of 5 vessels during the quarter. Shipbuilding gross margin was slightly below expectations at 17% in 1Q13, but within guided range. The Group also announced significant contract wins worth a total of US$110m - for 1 AHTS vessel sold to a new Indonesian customer + 4 PSVs sold to an existing customer. The Group remains well on track to sell and deliver on its newbuild programme of 19 vessels in FY13 and 25 vessels in FY14, underpinning earnings growth trajectory of >20% CAGR over FY12-14. Including build-to-order vessels, orderbook is now at record levels of RM1.7bn. Maintain BUY, estimates and TP under review (with likely upward bias), pending discussions with management and analyst briefing today.

Midas Holdingsexpects to report a net loss for 1Q13, mainly due to: 1) Lower revenue; 2) Lower gross profit margin due to change in product mix and an increase in per unit production cost due to lower utilisation of production capacity; 3) Higher operating expenses and finance cost; and 4) Share of loss from its associated company, Nanjing SR Puzhen Rail Transport.

Malaysia's Apr13 palm oil output rose 4% m-o-m to 1.366m MT - or c.4% below our forecast End Apr13 palm oil inventory dipped by 11% m-o-m to 1.926m MT on lower imports, better exports CPO price may not recover as fast we had expected; as China and India continue to accumulate stocks. We urge investors to exit low-growth upstream planters as we expect renewed price pressure in 2H13.

Cosco Corp has signed a contract with a Malaysian ship owner to build a float over launch barge worth over US$23m. Delivery is slated for 4Q13 from its Zhoushan yard. With this contract, Cosco's YTD win is lifted to US$277m. Management guided US$2bn order win this year with 90% coming from offshore projects. YTD wins seem lagging, forming only 14% of company's target new order (as well as our assumption). Maintain FULLY VALUED, TP: S$0.75.

Dyna-Mac Holdingshas secured two new fabrication orders for a provisional sum of S$40m. The new orders are from two regular clients for the fabrication of several units of topside module for a FPSO and fabrication of structural blocks. The above orders are expected to have a positive contribution to Dyna-Mac's earnings per share for the year ending 31 Dec 13.

Tiger Airways saw a 37.1% surge in passengers booked to 639,000 for the month of April, partly due to an improved performance in its operations down under. Passenger traffic for the group overall was up 33.3% at one billion revenue passenger-kilometres (RPK) in April, while capacity went up 32.8% to 1.21 billion available seat-kilometres (ASK). Passenger load factor was nearly flat, edging up 0.3 percentage point to 83%. Passenger load factor for Tiger Singapore slip 3.9 percentage points to 81% while Tiger Australia's passenger load factor rose 12.5 percentage points to 88.4% for April.

In property news, a 30-year industrial site at Loyang Way that allows for strata-subdivision has attracted a top bid of $61.6m in a public tender that saw six bidders and a broad range of offers. The top bid, which translates into $111 psf ppr (1% higher than the second-highest bid), was within expectations of property consultants. It was put in by industrial property developer OKH Global. Consultants had earlier predicted that the site would draw offers from $50 psf ppr to over $130 psf ppr.

Source: DBSV
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