Towards Financial Freedom

DBSV S'pore Wired Daily 3 May 2013

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Publish date: Fri, 03 May 2013, 10:42 AM

Today's Focus
Genting Singapore - Turning more cautious; downgrade to HOLD, TP revised to S$1.71

US market rallied to recover Wednesday's losses ahead of tonight's April jobs numbers after initial jobless claims fell more than expected (actual 324k, consensus 345k). The April non-farm payrolls figure is expected to come in at 140k, an improvement over the previous month's 88k. The ECB's lowering of interest rates to 0.5% from 0.75% and comments that it will remain accommodative as long as possible also underpinned sentiment.

Liquidity inflow should continue to lend support to market with the FED, ECB and BoJ still very much in an accommodative stance. Until signs of cyclical recovery emerge, which so far data releases have not pointed to one yet, interest remains with stable earnings, yield and defensive. We also note that the property sector, which is interest rate sensitive, is also seeing uplift in investors' interest.

The final HSBC Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for China dropped to 50.4 in April from March's 51.6 and was largely in line with a flash reading last week of 50.5. China's official PMI on Wednesday painted a similar picture, falling to 50.6 in April from an 11-month high of 50.9 in March as new export orders fell. The SSEC's almost non-existent reaction to the PMI numbers this week hints that the recent negative data trend has largely been priced in. Technically, we continue to see support at 2150. For now, the index is likely to hold ground around the 2150 level while waiting for the data trend to improve.

Genting Singapore's1Q13 results were below expectations, management is wary on VIP growth and visitor arrivals. Downgrade to HOLD (from Buy), TP revised to S$1.71 (from S$1.88) after cutting FY13-15F earnings by 11-21% on slower VIP growth and normalising win rate. The recent strong rally is likely to attract profit-taking. Potential Japan IR win could re-rate GENS but it may take another 2 years for the bidding process even if Japan liberalises gaming in November. 1Q13 earnings for UOB came in above consensus but in line with our estimates. Higher fee income and lower provisions offset NIM decline; ex-chunky loan deal, loans grew 3-4% q-o-q. Maintain HOLD and S$20.10 TP.

Ascott Residence Trust is proposing to acquire 3 serviced residences properties in China and 11 Rental Housing Properties in Japan for S$287.4m from its sponsor, Ascott Group. The properties will be acquired at a slight discount to valuers' valuation and the purchase price implies an initial EBITDA yield of 5.4%. The anticipated acquisitions are to refocus its exposure into high growth Asia and are accretive to earnings. Maintain BUY and TP S$1.53.

AusGroupannounced that Karara Mining (KML) (a company incorporated in Perth, Western Australia) has withheld progress payments of about AU$21.7m for structural, mechanical and piping installation works carried out by AusGroup's wholly-owned subsidiary, AGC Industries (AGC) at KML's Karara Iron Ore Project in Western Australia pursuant to a 2012 contract entered into between AGC and KML. AGC is actively liaising with KML management to attempt to resolve the current situation.

EMAS AMC, the subsea services arm of Ezra Holdings, has secured a contract from Statoil for the Smørbukk South Extension project in the Norwegian Sea. Valued at approximately US$75m and expected to last through 2015, the project award is a SURF (subsea construction, umbilicals, risers and flowlines) EPCI (engineering, procurement, construction and installation) contract. This is Ezra's 4th project win from Statoil. With this contract, we estimate EMAS AMC has secured close to US$835m of subsea work YTD in FY13 (Aug YE) vs. our full-year assumption of US$1bn, and current backlog in the subsea services division should stand at over US$1.1bn. Subsea order win momentum has continued to build well in recent months and the addition of two more subsea vessels in July and August will further position Ezra to ride on the surging subsea activity levels. No change to our earnings estimates, given that the contract win is within our expectations. Maintain BUY and TP of S$1.56.

Changjiang Fertilizerexpects to report a significantly lower revenue and a loss in 1Q13 as a result of lower demand of its products.

Singapore's purchasing managers' index (PMI) signalled growth for a second straight month in April despite falling from March. The uneven path it has charted in recent months, however, mirrors that of PMIs across Asia and reflects how tentative the region's recovery is. PMI slipped to 50.3 in April after rising to 50.6 in March, due to slower growth in both domestic and export orders. Electronics PMI slipped to 51.2 in April, from 51.9 in March, but kept above the 50-point mark and holds promise of better days ahead for the sector. Electronics sub-indices show that the fall was due to domestic orders, inventories, stocks and input prices. Production and orders for the key industrial sector continued to expand.

Source: DBSV
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