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DBSV S'pore Wired Daily 25 April 2013

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Publish date: Thu, 25 Apr 2013, 11:13 AM

Today's Focus
M1 - Least preferred in the sector due to downside risk to street's estimates. Maintain HOLD, TP S$3.00

F&N shares imminent short-term rebound to $8.20 and then towards $8.44

Our analyst believes that the street is overly bullish on FY13F/14F earnings for M1 due to tiered data plans. He thinks that tiered data plans may merely offset Average revenue per user (ARPU) decline due to over-the-top (OTT) applications like Whatsapp & Skype and lower roaming contribution. The rising popularity of Android phones will benefit peers but may hurt M1 instead. M1's use of fair value accounting for iPhones (heavily sold in 4Q12) will have a lingering impact on service revenue in FY13F. In addition, while M1 has raised its monthly service pricing, it also raised its handset subsidy. M1 offers 4.9% yield with mid-single digit growth. We do not see room for M1 to raise dividends. M1 is the least preferred in the sector due to downside risk to street's estimates. Maintain HOLD with revised TP of S$3.00 (Prev S$ 2.60).

F&N shares are due for a rebound after the 17% sell-down that started just 3 days ago. The stock's removal from the MSCI standard and large cap Indices at the end of market close yesterday had prompted the increased selling pressure in recent session. Index related selling had increased since the stock resumed trading this week and ended in a crescendo yesterday during the pre-close matching period with 17.5mil shares done in the final 5 minutes. Index related selling has ceased. We believe this paves the way for a short-term technical rebound. The Elliot-wave pattern of the stock's decline in the past 3 days supports this view. The immediate support is at $7.85. Technically, we see the stock heading to the 23.6% upward retracement level at $8.20 first, and then towards the 38.2% level at $8.44.

Cache Logistics Trustreported a solid set of 1Q13 results. 100% of the income is already locked in for the rest of 2013, providing clear visibility with minimal downside. Going forward, given that its gearing remains conservative at 29.4% and below management's long term target of 35%-40%, acquisitions will be a re-rating catalyst. BUY maintained with TP S$1.47 (Prev S$ 1.40).

Operational performance for Mapletree Industrial Trust in 4Q13 was bumped up by short term lease extension by Credit Suisse. The completion of various development/asset enhancement projects will underpin growth. HOLD call maintained, TP raised to S$1.63 (Prev S$ 1.46).

The Media Development Authority (MDA) has ordered SingTel's mio TV to share all Barclays Premier League (BPL) matches over the next three seasons with StarHub. Following a month of investigation, the MDA concluded that SingTel's broadcast rights deal with the Football Association Premier League (FAPL) - which the pay-TV operator had said was "non-exclusive" - was, in essence, an exclusive one and is now at the mercy of the cross-carriage rule. There could be some positive revisions to our earnings projections for StarHub over the long term assuming that it does not lose pay TV market share to SingTel anymore. Not much impact on FY13F earnings due to it as pay TV accounts for less than 20% of StarHub's revenue and less than 10% for earnings in our estimates. As for SingTel, the negative impact would be quite small compared to the size of its earnings.

According to SGX filing this morning, Andrew Rickards, CEO of Yoma, sold 7m shares in the open market @ 0.80829/share. Post disposal, his stake in Yoma would be pared down to 0.65% from 1.25% previously.

Del Monte Pacificis seeking a secondary listing of its shares on the Philippine Stock Exchange. The proposed dual listing will provide the company with a platform to widen its investor base, enhance the profile and market visibility and allow the company to establish financing platforms in two different equity markets simultaneously.

Sinotel Technologiesis expected to record a net loss for 1QFY2013, mainly attributable to lower profit margin arising from an increase in contribution from the sales of equipment which commands a lower margin coupled with a decrease in contribution from both the outdoor wireless coverage solutions and emergency mobile communications system (EMCS) which command higher margin.

US stocks ended mixed with earnings from Procter & Gamble and AT&T missing estimates. 180 out of 500 S&P500 companies have reported earnings so far. What investors have started to notice is the divergence between top and bottom lines. According to Thomson Reuters, although 68% of S&P companies have beaten bottom line estimates, only about 40% have topped revenue forecast. Durable goods orders fell 5.7%, worse than 3% forecast. Our economist sounds an alert that the recent slew of weak numbers in US that spanned from job to housing to ISM and now durable goods orders suggest that the 2Q and 3Q GDP is likely to slow down to 05% & 0.6% respectively despite the anticipated c.3% 1Q GDP number is scheduled for release this Friday.

Source: DBSV
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