Towards Financial Freedom

DBSV S'pore Wired Daily 23 April 2013

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Publish date: Tue, 23 Apr 2013, 02:15 PM

Today's Focus
Mapletree Commercial Trust - FY13 results above expectations; organic growth will be main driver for FY14. Maintain BUY, TP raised to S$1.53

4Q13 results for Mapletree Commercial Trust were slightly ahead of our expectations. Organic growth will be a main driver for FY14. While we believe that the current price fully reflects the positives of the current portfolio, we remain optimistic that given the significant pipeline from its sponsor, acquisitions will remain a key feature for MCT. Maintain BUY, TP raised to S$1.53 (Prev S$ 1.37).

Tiger Airways has received the go-ahead from the Australian ACCC for the sale of 60% of Tiger Airways Australia stake to Virgin Australia. With this approval in place, Tiger Airways can now look forward to commencing discussions with Virgin on its plans to grow Tiger Australia, and enable it to compete more effectively in the Australia's budget carrier space. Based on the Group's financial position as at 30 September 2012, Tiger Airways will record a pro forma one-time gain on disposal of about S$120m.
The Japanese yen has dropped closed to 20% against the US dollar since November 2012 after two rounds of sharp moves in JPY. DBS expects slower US$/JPY depreciation to 102 by year end, from current levels, implying a less than 4% move. Stock beneficiaries will include:- 1) Companies with loan exposure in JPY; 2) Japanese goods distributors and manufacturers importing raw materials or equipment from Japan - Tat Hong, Pan United, Sin Heng. For REITS and business trusts, the short-term negative impact of the falling Yen is offset by asset value reflation over the mid-term. Potential losers are those in industries which compete with Japanese makers for market share - Chinese Shipyards (Yangzijiang, Cosco Corp), and those with direct Japanese sales exposure - SATS, Biosensors.

Tiong Seng has signed a non-binding Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with Shwe Taung Development, one of the most prominent corporations in Myanmar, to explore entering into a joint venture to set up a precast plant in Myanmar. Under the MOU, Tiong Seng and Shwe Taung are proposing a 30% - 70% joint venture company, to establish and operate a precast plant to supply precast components to construction projects in Myanmar. Tiong Seng is expected to provide precast technical support, project based design and other technical supervision services. We think this is a timely venture. This comes on the back of the group plans to expand its pre-cast facilities regionally. With partner Shwe Taung, this may in the longer term be another avenue to extend its business contacts and potentially a new business arm into Myanmar. We do not anticipate any significant impact to earnings in the immediate term. No change to BUY call and TP of S$0.33 for Tiong Seng. The stock gained 10% yesterday. Technically, any follow-through reaction upside for it looks capped at $0.285.

BBR Holdings has secured two new contracts worth RM286m to build two bridges in Terengganu and Sarawak in Malaysia. The first contract is for the Pulau Sekati Bridge in Kuala Terengganu. Work has started and the bridge is expected to be completed at the end of 2015. BBR will also build what will be the longest bridge in Sarawak at 1.48 km in length. Work has started and is scheduled for completion in the second quarter of 2016.

Sino Grandness Food Industry Group said that its production facility in Qionglai, Sichuan has not been affected by the earthquake that struck Ya'an city, Sichuan Province, PRC. Presently, majority of the Group's juice production volume are still being outsourced to manufacturers based in provinces near the coastal areas such as Guangdong, Fujian and Zhejiang. Starhill Global REIT also said based on preliminary reports, there is no known damage to Renhe Spring Zongbei, Starhill Global REIT's property located in Chengdu, 120km from the earthquake struck area.

Expect a significant drop in the March inflation figure for Singapore, which will be due today. Our economist expects inflation to come in at 3.6% YoY. And that's a 1.3%-pt drop compared to the previous month. The main driver is an anticipated sharp drop in transport cost, led by the recent correction in COE premium. Note that private transport cost accounts for 11.66% of the entire CPI basket.

The number of tourists arriving in Singapore is estimated to grow by only 3 to 4% each year for the next decade, about half the rate it did for the past ten years. Tourism receipts are also expected to grow at only 4 to 6% over the same period. Describing the past growth in visitor arrivals as "not sustainable", Mr S Iswaran, Second Minister for Home Affairs and Trade and Industry, said: "The growth model that is based solely on sheer quantitative growth is no longer viable". From 2002 to 2012, visitor arrivals grew at a compounded annual growth rate of 6.6%. Tourism receipts grew at a corresponding 10% in the same period.

US stocks gained with a rebound in commodity lifted energy & raw material companies. The US corporate earnings progresses. Of the 111 that have reported so far, 72% exceeded analysts' predictions for earnings, data compiled by Bloomberg show. March existing home sales came in lower than expected at 4.92mil annual rate (consensus 5mil). April's China HSBC Flash manufacturing PMI will be released this morning. Consensus expects a reading of 51.5 (previous 51.6).

Source: DBSV
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