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DBSV S'pore Wired Daily 11 April 2013

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Publish date: Thu, 11 Apr 2013, 05:34 PM

Today's Focus
Plantation Companies - Expect CPO price to recover in 2Q13. Top pick First Resources

US and European markets rallied overnight as optimism continued that the current 1Q results season will beat consensus estimates. Technology and health care companies led gainers. Sentiment was also underpinned by the Japan PM's reiteration of bold monetary easing. The local bourse should be firmer today with major US indices making yet another post GFC high. Expect the STI to reclaim the 3310-3320 level in the current session.

Our plantation analyst expects CPO price to recover in 2Q13. After two consecutive years of growth, oil palm trees are due to experience flatter yields this year. Hence, current low prices and lower-than-expected yields may diminish Malaysia's palm oil inventories faster than we had anticipated. This, together with any slowdown in the Chinese soybean crushing volume should result in higher palm oil exports. Hence, we maintain our CPO price forecasts, despite continued weakness YTD. We expect CPO prices to recover to between RM2,600 and RM2,800 in 2Q13. We are also bullish on the longer term, as current difficulties to expand in Indonesia would cause diminishing supply growth from 2016F onwards. For exposure in this sector, our pick for SGX-listed CPO stock is First Resources(BUY, TP: S$2.16). We believe its share price drops (steeper than peers) have more than priced in this year's negative earnings growths.
Tiger Airwaysoperating statistics for March 2013. Tiger Singapore recorded a 30% increase in traffic to 766 million revenue passenger-kilometres (RPK) for the month of March 2013. This comes on the back of a 31% increase in capacity to 894 million available seat-kilometres (ASK). Consequently, y-o-y passenger load factor was 1 percentage point lower at 86%. For the 12 months to March 2013, passenger load factor was three percentage points higher at 84%. Tiger Australia recorded a 78% increase in traffic to 267 million RPK while capacity increased 66% to 313 million ASK for the month of March 2013. As a result, passenger load factor improved 6 percentage points to 85%. In March 2013, Tiger Australia carried 245,000 passengers, representing an increase of 108% over the previous period. The airline was operating at a significantly reduced capacity and on a limited schedule a year ago. For the 12 months to March 2013, passenger load factor remained unchanged at 83%.

ST Engineering's aerospace arm said that it has won new contracts worth about $480m in the first three months of the year. They are for airframe, component and engine maintenance, as well as engineering and development.
Forterra Trust, formerly Treasury China Trust, is set to divest its Central Plaza property in Shanghai for US$266.7m. The sale price for Central Plaza is at a 7.9% discount to the property's fair value as at Dec 31 last year. Forterra expects net cash proceeds of about US$127.3m from the sale, with an estimated gain of about $21.5m. The gross sale proceeds will be used to repay about US$120m in debt, which amounts to 17% of the trust's loan portfolio, and cut annual interest expense at Forterra by 15%. The trust expects net asset value to improve nine cents to $4.53 per unit following the sale.
OKP Holdings has secured a S$10.2m contract for the improvement of roadside drains from national water agency, PUB. This contract will boost OKP's total gross order book to S$393.5m.

Tritech Group expects to report a net loss for FY March 2013. Although its core businesses of specialist engineering service and ground and structural engineering services continued to be profitable, the Group's overall performance was adversely affected by expenses incurred by its water-related business and marble resource business.

Resale prices of non-landed private residential properties edged up in the first quarter, despite fewer transactions taking place. Units in the Core Central Region (CCR) rose to $1,837 psf from $1,816 psf, those in the Rest of Central Region (RCR) to $1,259 psf from $1,208 psf, and those from Outside Central Region (OCR) to $1,010 psf from $958 psf. The volume of resale transactions in Q1, however, fell to 1,982 transactions from 3,271 the quarter before.

Singapore Exchange has deepened its engagement in China with a memorandum of understanding signed with China Financial Futures Exchange (CFFEX) to develop the derivatives markets in China and Singapore. Under the MOU, both exchanges will jointly explore possible areas of cooperation including product and market development, information sharing and human resources training.

China saw a mild trade deficit of US$884m in March as a forecast-busting 14.1% y-o-y surge in imports eclipsed export growth of 10%, signaling that domestic demand was gathering steam needed to drive economic recovery. Import growth far in excess of the 5.2% expected, while exports fell just short of the 10.5% rise forecasted. That left China with a trade deficit, compared with a forecast surplus of US$15.4 bn and February's surplus of US$15.3 bn.

Source: DBSV
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