Today's Focus
Bombed out cyclical stocks - Wilmar, Noble Group, Olam, NOL, HPH Trust to benefit from improvement in the global economy
We think the Singapore market should remain underpin by the sustain hope of an improvement in the global economy. We maintain our view for a net gradual increase in the STI that should lift it to c.3450 by end June and 3600 by year end. With an improving macro backdrop, interest in bombed out cyclical stocks such as Wilmar, Noble Groupand Olam as well as container shipping NOL and container port business trust HPH Trust should benefit. For investors who prefer to go for yield, stocks like Keppel Corp, Pan United, ST Engineering, OCBC, ComfortDelgro and China Merchant Hldgs will be going ex-entitlement for dividend soon. Besides the relatively attractive dividend yield, the fundamentals of these stocks remain strong.
Singapore's Feb 13 loan growth remained stable at 15% y-o-y, equally driven by consumer and business loans. M-o-m momentum eased to 1.2% (Jan 13: 3.0%). We forecast 8% loan growth this year, still largely driven by business loans. Housing loans have stabilized at 16% y-o-y (a stable trend since Nov 12). The impact from tighter property measures may not kick in fully this year due to previously approved mortgages. Deposit growth is picking up; at 9.7% y-o-y in Feb 13 vs an average of 7% in the past 10 months with a trough point at 5.5%. OCBC remains a BUY and our preferred pick.
Prices of private homes in Singapore rose more slowly in the first quarter than in the previous three months, as recent policy curbs sapped some demand. Still the private residential property price index climbed 0.5% q-o-q to a new high of 213.1 points in the January-to-March period. The index had jumped 1.8% q-o-q in the October-to-December quarter. In the first quarter, prices of non-landed private residences in the core central region rose 0.4%, slowing from a 0.7% rise in the previous quarter. Prices were stable in the rest of the central region, after having risen 0.9% in the fourth quarter. Prices outside the central region rose 1.7% in the January-to-March period compared with the previous quarter, slowing from a 3.8% rise in the fourth quarter.
SMRT Corporationis expected to report a net loss for the fourth quarter ending 31 March 2013. Increasing operating costs without corresponding fare adjustments have adversely affected the Group's profitability. In addition, there is an impairment cost of $17m of goodwill in its associate, Shenzhen ZONA Transportation Group. Overall, the Group is expected to be profitable for the full year ending 31 March 2013.
Qantas has re-routed its kangaroo routes via Singapore to Dubai from 31 Mar, as part of its new alliance with Emirates. We see limited impact for Changi Airport as well as SIA, SIA Engineering and SATS. Qantas was previously flying 2 daily flights (QF1 and QF9) to London via Singapore (from Melbourne and Sydney), which will now be via Dubai, and the maximum number that Qantas could have been flying into Singapore only represents 0.69% of the 51.2m passengers that Changi handled last year.
Scorpio East is placing 34m new shares at S$0.065 per share. The issue price represents a premium of approximately 3.83% to the last volume weighted price. The estimated net proceeds will be about S$2.2m, and will be used to repay an existing loan, acquire movie distribution rights and for working capital purposes.
Source: DBSV