Towards Financial Freedom

DBSV S'pore Wired Daily 15 March 2013

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Publish date: Fri, 15 Mar 2013, 10:05 AM

Today's Focus
UOB Group of Companies - Looking across the board. BUY SingLand, UOL; upgraded UIC to HOLD, maintain HOLD on UOB

Lower-than-expected weekly initial jobless claims (actual 332k, consensus 350k) lifted US equities higher yesterday. This, coupled with an anticipated tame February CPI (consensus 1.9% y-o-y) should underpin equities heading into the weekend.

Following our re-assessment of the value of Singapore Land which led to a consequent upgrade of RNAV and target prices, our valuation for UIC and UOL have also been raised by up to 10% on upstreaming the positive knock-on impact. UOL owns 79.96% of Singland while UOL in turn holds 43.4% of UIC. Whilst UOB should also enjoy positive accretion from its holdings of these companies, directly and indirectly, the impact is a relatively small 3%, given the significant size of its core banking business. We have a BUY call on SingLand (TP: S$ 9.53) and UOL (TP: S$7.77 (Prev S$ 7.03)); upgraded UIC to HOLD with a TP of $3.00 (Prev S$ 2.21) and maintain HOLD on UOB(TP: S$20.10).

We believe there are more potential catalysts in the works. The key catalyst, in our view, to a realization of the underlying value of this chain of companies, is if Singland is privatized, which in turn could mean a removal of the ascribed discount to Singland's TP and valuing its assets as directly held properties at UIC level. In this instance, on a best scenario basis, this translates to a 35% upside to UIC's valuation, which in turn would mean a further 9% boost to UOL's TP. Singland's TP, premised on an average 30% discount to asset backing of $13.61, implies a further 9% upside from here. However, we believe this would likely be more a medium to long term development.

Ezra has secured a contract worth US$165m from Det norske - a key exploration and drilling operator on the Norwegian Continental Shelf. The contract represents Ezra's first major rigid pipe-lay project win in the North Sea region and extends its capabilities in that region. Ezra also secured a contract from Statoil for the transport and installation of subsea templates for the Norwegian Sea's deepest offshore project - the Aasta Hansteen field development. The contract value for the latter project is unspecified. This is the 3rd project win from Statoil.

With this contract, we estimate Ezra has secured more than US$600m of subsea work YTD in FY13 (Aug YE) vs. our full-year assumption of US$1bn, and current backlog in the subsea services division should stand at over US$1bn. Subsea order win momentum has continued to build well in recent months and the addition of two more subsea vessels in March and August will further position Ezra to ride on the surging subsea activity levels. Maintain BUY on Ezra, TP S$1.58.

STX OSV Holdingswill remain listed on the mainboard of the Singapore Exchange after Fincantieri Oil & Gas failed to accumulate more than 55.63% of its shares when the offer period closed on March 13. Fincantieri, the Italian state-owned shipbuilder, mounted a bid for STX Group's 50.75% interest in STX OSV last December at $1.22 a share, or $730.6m.

ISDN Holdings is placing 36m new shares at an issue price of S$0.24 per share. The placement price represents a discount of approximately 9.98% to last weighted average price. The estimated net proceeds of S$8.4m will be used to supplement the working capital requirements, in particular that of the business segments that the Group has embarked on in recent years such as the hydroponics and mining related businesses.

Source: DBSV
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