Towards Financial Freedom

DBSV S'pore Wired Daily 1 March 2013

kiasutrader
Publish date: Fri, 01 Mar 2013, 06:26 PM

Today's Focus
City Development - Upgrade to HOLD on valuation, TP raised to S$12.23

Banyan Tree - Brighter outlook for hotels and property sales. Upgrade to BUY, TP S$0.83

Yanlord Land - Downgrade to FULLY VALUED with unchanged TP of S$1.24 due to expensive valuation and policy headwinds

Results for City Development were in line with our projections. The group sold a total of 2,395 homes in 2012 valued at S$2.78bn vs 1818 units in 2011 (S$1.76bn). This would continue to underpin earnings visibility going forward. For 2013, it plans to offer another 900 units in 1H13. Upgrade to Hold on valuation, TP raised to S$12.23 (Prev S$ 11.88). We like the group's quick asset turn strategy which has enabled them to lock in strong residential presales and boost forward earnings visibility.

4Q12 results for Banyan Tree Holdings saw an improvement. Outlook for hotels and property sales has improved. Upgrade to BUY, TP S$0.83 (Prev S$ 0.79). With improved indicators (operating outlook in Thailand and returning property sales), we are increasingly confident of BTH's ability to deliver stronger profits in FY13F.

FY12 results for Yanlord Land in line with our estimates and consensus forecasts. Yanlord is accelerating construction but this may not drive pre-sales growth until 4Q13/2014. Downgrade to Fully Valued with unchanged TP of S$1.24 due to expensive valuation and policy headwinds.

Ying Li's 2012 core profit of Rmb81m (down 8% y-o-y) below expectations, largely due to slower-than expected revenue recognition. 2013 earnings outlook is bright due to full year contribution of rental revenue from IFC and revenue recognition from Int'l Plaza. New reputable CEO will help set up an efficient operating system and source lower cost off- shore loans. Maintain BUY with higher TP of S$0.55 (Prev S$0.51) (40% discount to RNAV).

Venture's FY12 results below expectations but margin rebounded in Q4. DPS adjusted to S$0.50 from S$0.55 but 6% yield is still decent. We expect better 2013 but more strength in H2. New programmes and more profitable mix are expected to drive growth in H2. TP raised to S$9.17 (Prev S$ 7.62) after pegging to 15.6x PE (hist. mean). Maintain Hold.

FY12 results for Tiong Seng in line; dividend of 1 Scts was declared (yield 4%). Construction orderbook remain robust. While management expects labour costs owing to the levies and tightening man-year-entitlements (MYE) to pressure margins in the coming 2 years, impact is likely to be fairly marginal (at cS$1m hike in cost) and lower than peers given the group's focus in automation and technology (through the automated pre-cast factory and formworks) in its construction activities. In addition, the group also acquired a site in Iskandar region to build another pre-cast factory. Its property division is expected to contribute meaningfully from FY13 onwards. Maintain BUY, TP S$0.33 (Prev S$ 0.25).

Noble Group's 4Q core profit above expectations, aided by tax credit. Growth in Energy and MMO segments was partially offset by lower grain & oilseeds crush margins. FY13/14F core earnings were trimmed by 4% each on lower agriculture profitability. Maintain BUY; TP S$1.45 (Prev S$ 1.50).

4Q/FY12 earnings, FY12 DPS of 7.1Scts for Super Group were in line with expectations. Attractive 30% growth in FY13F is supported by expanding product range and higher ingredients utilisation. Maintain BUY, TP raised to S$4.68 (Prev S$ 3.51) on peer group re-rating.

Golden Agri's4Q12 core earnings came in at US$36m (-60% q-o-q, -60% y-o-y), less than half of what we had expected (US$76.3m), and below consensus, The poor results were dragged by drop in CPO prices, higher CPO inventory and weak China business. We are neutral to the results, as we believe it has largely been priced in.

Nam Cheong has entered into US$130m worth of contracts with Bumi Armada. The orders are for four MPSVs including option to build four additional units. The contracts represent one of the largest collective wins in Nam Cheong's corporate history, and are expected to contribute positively to FY2013 - FY2015 earnings. Nam Cheong's order book is now RM1.3 bn.

Yoma Strategic Holdings is acquiring a 70% stake in German Car Industries Company (GCI) for US$700,000. GCI is an established premier service centre for European vehicles in Yangon that was established in 1996. We are positive on this acquisition because it is a good spring board for Yoma's entry into the car servicing/distributing industry in Myanmar, especially the luxury segment. GCI is profitable with an average PBT margin of 25%. This acquisition would enable Yoma to gain a foothold in the niche market of servicing European brands and would complement its involvement in Japanese autos. Yoma intends to seek one or two more distributorships in time, Financially, we believe contributions could start in FY14.

Separately, the group is exploring the possibilities of acquiring another 12-acres (522k sq ft) site at the fringe of Yangon City Centre from SPA group under the first right of refusal deed (FRRD). This proposed acquisition site is located next to FMI City which is currently more than 95% sold.

Development charge rates for most property segments continued to climb. The rates, effective from 1 Mar 2013 saw the largest average increases of 26% for land slated for hotel use while those in the commercial segments was revised up by 24%. Within the residential segment, DC rates remained relatively unchanged with a 4% upward revision for landed properties and 0% for non-landed use. The average for industrial use was raised by 0.6%. Amongst the sub-segments, the largest increases in the commercial space of up to 39% was seen in Yishun, Sembawang, Woodlands, Choa Chu Kang and Jurong West. In the hotel segment, the largest 46% jump in DC rates was seen in the Jurong Lake District area. Within the residential segment, landed residential DC went up by 7-15% in areas in the east such as Tanjong katong, Telok Kurau, East Coast, Bayshore and Bedok South. The hikes are unlikely to have any significant impact on the property market, and property stocks, as the latest DC rate changes will only affect projects that involve a change of use or density.

Singapore's bank lending picked up in January, as loans to businesses and consumers grew 18.3% y-o-y, marginally faster than December's 16.7% growth. Domestic banking unit (DBU) loans rose 1.8% to $499.5 bn at the end of January, a touch slower than December's 1.9% m-o-m growth. Loans to businesses rose 2.3% over the month to $290.8 bn, slowing slightly from the 2.6% growth in December. But compared to a year ago, total business loans expanded 20.7%, faster than December's 18% growth. Consumer loans grew a stronger 1.1% in January to hit $208.7 billion, after growing 0.9% m-o-m in December. On a y-o-y, consumer loans growth accelerated to 15.2%, from December's 15% growth. Housing and bridging loans, the largest consumer loans segment, grew a slightly stronger 1.4%, compared with December's 1.1% m-o-m growth.

Source: DBSV
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