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Midas - Outlook remains sanguine

kiasutrader
Publish date: Fri, 01 Mar 2013, 09:29 AM

4Q12 PATMI declined 47.8% YoY to RMB17.5m, on the back of a flat 2.6% YoY increase in revenue to RMB216.5m. PATMI was lower, largely due to more lowmargin products being sold. As expected, FY12 PATMI was significantly lower due to lower orders from the railway industry for its aluminum extruded products. Share of associates was higher than expected, as it was able to recover some expenses from a project. Going forward, (1) outlook for the railway industry remains positive, supported by the Chinese government's plans to develop the railway infrastructure. (2) Midas's order book is expected to last till FY15, with deliveries likely from 2H13. There is also potential for more order flow to come through. We are maintaining our BUY recommendation and TP SGD0.75, as potential order flow looks good.
Optimistic on China's railway industry. Midas remains optimistic on China's railway industry, as the Chinese government continues to invest in the railway infrastructure. The Chinese government expects to spend RMB650bn in 2013, to enhance the railway network. Midas stands to benefit from this as there would be a growth in orders for railway train cars. Although the government has not awarded any contract yet, management indicated that it continues to engage its customers, and is optimistic that it would be able to secure more new contracts. It currently has an order book of RMB400m, while that for NPRT is RMB7.5bn.
Receivables turnover days at relatively high levels. Midas' receivables increased 44.4% YoY to RMB1.0bn as at end FY12, largely due to the slowdown in the railway industry. Management remains confident about the collectability of its receivables (from state-owned enterprises), especially when the industry picks up further from 2H13.
Maintain BUY; TP SGD0.75. Midas is currently trading at 1.0x FY13F P/B. We think FY13 should be a better year, but FY14 would be much better once the orders start coming in as the government builds up the network.
Source: OSK
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