Raffles Medical's 4Q12 PATMI grew 22.7% YoY, on the back of a 14.9% YoY increase in revenue. Revenue was in line with expectations, but PATMI exceeded slightly, helped by gains on revaluation of investment properties. Revenue growth was across all business segments, as Raffles Medical was able to raise charges and record higher patient volume. Demand for its services remains strong, although competition from regional providers is increasing. Raffles Medical continues to seek out new growth opportunities (via its hospital extension, new specialist medical centre and possibly, a new hospital in China). As we roll forward our earnings, we have a TP of SGD3.30 (previously SGD2.72). Maintain NEUTRAL.
Raised charges, but still lower than its local competition. About 50% of its revenue growth was attributed to price increases. Despite the increase in charges, management maintains that it is still lower than what other private healthcare providers charge. This indicates that there is more room for rates increase (a gradual increase to be expected in FY13), which would help give revenue growth a boost.
Overseas expansion plans moves forward a little. After considering opportunities in the China market for the past few years, Raffles Medical finally took some action and signed a non-binding Letter of Intent (LOI) with a Chinese partner (a member of China Merchants Group), to collaborate on the proposed development of an integrated international hospital in Shenzhen, China. The terms of this hospital project is still being finalised. Should both parties come to an agreement, the hospital would likely commence operations in three years' time. Funding for this potential investment could be in the form of debt and cash. We think Raffles Medical's strong balance sheet would enable it to do so.
Staff costs expected to rise. As Raffles Medical continues to gradually expand its specialist services, it is likely to continue hiring. Coupled with higher wages, this would raise its staff costs. Management remains committed to keeping staff costs to under 50% of Group revenue.
Raise TP, maintain NEUTRAL. We are expecting PATMI of SGD62.2m (+9.3% YoY) in FY13, while margins are relatively stable. We have lowered our WACC assumption slightly, as the outlook is better, with demand from medical tourists still healthy.