Towards Financial Freedom

SingTel - Transformational Growth

kiasutrader
Publish date: Fri, 15 Feb 2013, 03:44 PM

SingTel's results call did not spring any surprises, with discussions mainly centered on LTE adoption in Singapore and Australia. Management has confirmed it is keen to procure a mobile license in Myanmar although the terms of the award have not been made public. SingTel is a frontrunner for the license given its experience in and strong knowledge of the Asia-Pacific mobile market. We are maintaining our NEUTRAL call and earnings forecast. The group faces competitive headwinds in Singapore and Australia and is exposed to regulatory risks in India. Its FV is revised to SGD3.15 (from SGD3.07), after updating the SOP valuations of associates. We prefer Starhub for exposure to Sing telecoms.
LTE sees improved traction. SingTel said 17% of its postpaid customers in Singapore have switched to LTE as at 4Q12. Of this, 9% have exceeded their data caps, allowing it to immediately monetize these users. Although there are no immediate plans to revise LTE pricing (currently at 3G rates), it will increase the excess data charge (from SGD5.35/GB to SGD10.70/GB) when LTE coverage expands nationwide by end March. Management attributed the higher postpaid ARPU q-o-q to: i) customers signing up on higher value plans, and ii) seasonally higher roaming revenue. Over in Australia, Optus' LTE/4G service is now available in major cities including Sydney, Melbourne, Adelaide, Brisbane and Perth, with plans to blanket all 3G areas within four years with the new 700MHz spectrum.
Calling out to the lady. SingTel confirmed that it has submitted its interest for a mobile license in Myanmar. However, it is still unclear as to the terms and conditions of the award. We think SingTel stands a good chance of winning, given its strong experience in managing major telco assets in the Asia Pacific. However, there are inherent capex risks given the very poor infrastructure in the country and regulatory risks - specifically the transparency in the award of the spectrum. We expect the race for a license to be tight, as Myanmar represents the last bastion of mobile growth in Asia. Aside from SingTel, other notable names that have also submitted their interests include Telenor, Axiata, ST
Telemedia (STT) and Bharti, an associate company of SingTel.
Nothing concrete on tower sale in Indonesia. SingTel said it has had discussions with Telkom and Telkomsel on ways to maximize value from a tower transaction in Indonesia although nothing concrete is on the table.

 Source: OSK
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