Today's Focus
Singapore banks - Softer q-o-q earnings but full year earnings growth should be strong.
The Singapore banks will report 4Q12/FY12 results from next week (DBS 6 Feb (am), OCBC 15 Feb (am) and UOB 27 Feb (pm)). We estimate core net profit to decline 9% q-o-q as NIM continues to slide. Loan growth could see a slight uptick in 4Q12 bringing full year loan growth close to 10%. Provisions will likely remain low while asset quality stays robust. Lower effective tax rates are a usual trend in 4Q. Despite expectations of a q-o-q decline in 4Q12 net profit, full year 2012 earnings are estimated to grow at a strong 18%, driven by non-interest income and low provisions. We expect OCBC to report strong FY12 earnings (+24% y-o-y) as insurance income should rebound in 2H. Overall, we project earnings for banks to grow by only 2% in 2013 while loans growth is expected to be 8% in 2013. Despite softer earnings momentum, Singapore banks' balance sheets are strong. We see minimal risk to asset quality while capital will remain strong even with Basel III. OCBCremains a BUY and our preferred pick. UOBremains a HOLD.
MBS reported strong 4Q12 results, on strong rebound in rolling chip and mass volume picking up. Genting Singapore's 4Q12 results to be announced on 21 Feb, may show a similar q-o-q recovery as MBS. Our analyst has raised 2013-14F earnings by 7-11%. Maintain Hold but up TP to S$1.60 (from S$1.30).
4Q12 results for CDL Hospitality Trusts in line. We see challenges in operating environment in the near term. We noted that occupancies for its Singapore portfolio remained fairly firm at 89.3% but the average daily rate was marginally lower at S$229/night (-1.3% y-o-y). Acquisitions will boost earnings performance. With more headroom (gearing at a conservative c.29%), management remains watchful for opportunities. BUY and TP S$2.11 maintained. CDREIT offers a prospective 5.9-6.2% yield.
3Q13 results for SATSwithin expectations. Margins remained flat on staff costs, offset by lower raw material costs. Valuations are near +1 std dev, above mean PE, but dividend yield of 4.3-4.6% should limit downside. Maintain HOLD, TP: S$2.80 (Prev S$ 2.62).
4Q12 results for Starhill Global in line, lifted by Singapore portfolio. Positive reversions, new acquisition, Malaysia stepping up rent and some possible interest savings are expected to drive earnings. Maintain BUY at a higher S$0.89 TP (Prev S$ 0.84).
Innopac Holdingsis acquiring Merlin Diamonds Limited, a diamond mining and exploration company listed on the Australian Stock Exchange for A$0.28 per share, a premium of approximately 36.59 % over their last closing price. With the acquisition, Innopac is poised to become the first and only listed diamond miner on the SGX-ST.
Transcu is acquiring 74.8% stake in Nanomizer for S$41.0m from Forest Pine Group. With the acquisition, the group is set to benefit from the commercialization of the Nano-Emulsion Fuel System and return to profitability over time. It will issue 3,155.8m new shares at S$0.013 per share (at prevailing market price) to Forest Pine Group. Nanomizer is valued at no less than US$112.8m by an independent valuer and the 74.8% stake in the share capital amounts to US$84.4m. Transcu is acquiring the business at a 60.1% discount to current valuation.
Faced with crew overcapacity amid challenging market conditions, SIA said that it was releasing 76 pilots ahead of the expiry of their fixed-term contracts. SIA blamed the current surplus of pilots on the lingering effects of the global financial crisis of 2009-10, which had resulted in excess capacity and slower-than-expected growth.
AusGroup has been awarded an extension of their existing contract with Apache Energy for ongoing works on Varanus Island and associated offshore facilities, valued at approximately A$15m per annum.
ST Engineeringhas been awarded a contract by the Ministry of Defence (MINDEF) for the design and build of eight new vessels. Delivery of these vessels is expected to be from 2016 onwards.
United Engineersintends to launch a takeover for WBL Corporation in an all-cash pre-conditional voluntary general offer that values WBL at close to $1.1 bn. The offer for the remaining 61.7% of WBL, or 167.6m shares is at $4.00 per share, a 19.0% premium to a competing cash offer (adjusted for dividend).
US markets fell moderately after data showed 4Q GDP fell 0.1% q-o-q, which was worse than expected. The drag came from govt sector spending, down 7% while private consumption grew an expected 2.2%. Our economist comments that the private sector is coming back while the public sector cuts back. The net result is that growth will remain below par. The Fed will keep pumping an extra US$85bil into the system each month. In the lead-up to Friday's employment number, the ADP employment data rose a stronger than expected 192k versus the 165k consensus. Consensus expects US January non-farm payrolls to increase by 165k while the unemployment stays unchanged at 7.8%.
Source: DBSV