Following 19% fall in the stock price over the past five months, we now believe Elec & Eltek (E&E) has overcorrected. The US$6.3 bn HDI market is poised to grow at 14% in 2013 and E&E will expand capacity to capture this growth through its largest customer Samsung. Furthermore, its PC Peripherals business may not be as bad as it seems, as E&E is focused on enterprise servers and hard disks which are cushioned from the structural PC decline. Most importantly, we expect E&E to continue to generate healthy cash flows and pay out generous dividends, distributing a yield of 7.6% and 8.6% respectively for FY12F and FY13. Upgrade to BUY with a new TP to USD2.82, based on 14.2x FY13 P/E (2-yr forward P/E average).
HDI to grow, E&E with it. According to Prismark, the market for handset high density interconnection (HDI) should reach US$6.3bn in 2012. This means that with E&E's estimated revenues of US$110m in this area, E&E holds close to 2% of the global market share. With current HDI production capacity running at more than 90%, E&E will ramp up production by 38% to 18k sqf by 2H13 in order to satisfy the surging demand from Samsung. As the HDI overall market is projected to grow by a CAGR of 8.8% until 2016, we believe that E&E is poised to tap on the growth.
Specialised enterprise niche protects E&E from PC woes. While the outlook for PC industry is expected to remain lacklustre, E&E's Computer & Computer Peripherals business segment (representing 36% of 9MFY12 revenue) is actually cushioned from the industry woes. This is due to the fact that the end customers are the likes of IBM and Hitachi and the end products are enterprise servers and hard disks with the demand remain resilient. Furthermore, management is expecting restocking activities to pick up in 2Q13. As such, we believe that the market has excessively priced-in the negative impact of PC's decline.
Solid cash cow delivers yet another year of stable dividends While it has been tested during multiple market conditions, E&E has been consistently delivering profits and dividends for the past few years. We believe the group has little problem in declaring at least 7 US¢ in the upcoming 4Q12 results, translating to an attractive annual yield of 7.6%.