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Ezra Holdings - Results below expectations

kiasutrader
Publish date: Tue, 15 Jan 2013, 12:17 PM

 

1QFY13 net profit of US$6.7m (-7% QoQ, -49% YoY) was disappointing. The weak net profit  was  due  to  lower  gross  margins  and  higher  admin,  interest  and  income  tax expenses.  We  see  little  near-term  re-rating  catalyst.  In  our  view,  contract  wins  are unlikely  to  excite  the  market  as  investors  are  looking  for  a  sharp  improvement  in earnings  (after  a  series  of  earnings disappointment)  while  debt  level  remains elevated. We cut our FY13-14F EPS estimates by 28-38% (from a low base) to reflect weaker  subsea  margins.  Maintain  Neutral  on  the  stock  with  an  unchanged  TP  of S$1.15 based on 0.85x P/B.


Strong  topline  growth  but  bottomline  hit  by  lower  margins  and  higher  expenses. 1QFY13  headline  net  profit  of  US$6.7m  (-49%)  was  lower  despite  revenue  rising  +54% YoY. The weak net profit was due to: (1) decline in overall gross profit margin from 19.2% in 1QFY12 to 17.9% in 1QFY13; (2) admin expenses rose +34% YoY; (3) interest expense up  +28%  YoY;  and  (4)  higher  taxes  due  to  withholding  taxes  on  vessels  operating  in overseas  water.  Ezra  also  recognised  a  US$3.8m  gain  from  disposal  of  fixed  assets,  a US$0.6m  gain  from  fair  value  changes  in  FVTPL  but  offset  by  US$0.3m  forex  loss. Operating cash flow remains negative at -US$64.8m due to growing working capital needs.  
Subsea  profitability  below-par;  competition  may  cap  margin  expansion.  Subsea gross margin was 14-15% vs. 17-18% in 4QFY12 due to lower fleet efficiency. In the past three  months,  Ezra  has  secured  US$360m  new  orders  for  the  offshore  support  vessel (OSV) and subsea divisions. We estimate that Ezra has a net subsea order book of around US$900m and OSV backlog of US$500m. While we expect the subsea spending to remain robust  on  high  crude  oil  prices,  aggressive  bids  from  established  and emerging  players may cap margin expansion. Delay in project implementation is also a risk to earnings.
Cut  FY13-14F  earnings  by  28-38%  on  lower  subsea  margins.  We  lower  our  FY13F subsea  gross  profit  margin  from  21.0%  to  18.0%  to  reflect  the  lower  subsea  margins  in 1QFY13 (estimated at 14-15%) and lower fleet efficiency. We now estimate FY13-14F net profit  (before  preferred  dividends)  of  US$29m  and  US$58m  respectively.  Consensus  net profit estimates for FY13F ranged between US$33m and US$92m.
Valuations:  Maintain  Neutral  with  an  unchanged  TP  of  S$1.15.  Our  TP  is  based  on FY13F P/B of 0.85x. In the last 12 months, Ezra traded between 0.7x and 1.1x P/B.
 
 
Source: OSK
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