1QFY13 net profit of US$6.7m (-7% QoQ, -49% YoY) was disappointing. The weak net profit was due to lower gross margins and higher admin, interest and income tax expenses. We see little near-term re-rating catalyst. In our view, contract wins are unlikely to excite the market as investors are looking for a sharp improvement in earnings (after a series of earnings disappointment) while debt level remains elevated. We cut our FY13-14F EPS estimates by 28-38% (from a low base) to reflect weaker subsea margins. Maintain Neutral on the stock with an unchanged TP of S$1.15 based on 0.85x P/B.
Strong topline growth but bottomline hit by lower margins and higher expenses. 1QFY13 headline net profit of US$6.7m (-49%) was lower despite revenue rising +54% YoY. The weak net profit was due to: (1) decline in overall gross profit margin from 19.2% in 1QFY12 to 17.9% in 1QFY13; (2) admin expenses rose +34% YoY; (3) interest expense up +28% YoY; and (4) higher taxes due to withholding taxes on vessels operating in overseas water. Ezra also recognised a US$3.8m gain from disposal of fixed assets, a US$0.6m gain from fair value changes in FVTPL but offset by US$0.3m forex loss. Operating cash flow remains negative at -US$64.8m due to growing working capital needs.
Subsea profitability below-par; competition may cap margin expansion. Subsea gross margin was 14-15% vs. 17-18% in 4QFY12 due to lower fleet efficiency. In the past three months, Ezra has secured US$360m new orders for the offshore support vessel (OSV) and subsea divisions. We estimate that Ezra has a net subsea order book of around US$900m and OSV backlog of US$500m. While we expect the subsea spending to remain robust on high crude oil prices, aggressive bids from established and emerging players may cap margin expansion. Delay in project implementation is also a risk to earnings.
Cut FY13-14F earnings by 28-38% on lower subsea margins. We lower our FY13F subsea gross profit margin from 21.0% to 18.0% to reflect the lower subsea margins in 1QFY13 (estimated at 14-15%) and lower fleet efficiency. We now estimate FY13-14F net profit (before preferred dividends) of US$29m and US$58m respectively. Consensus net profit estimates for FY13F ranged between US$33m and US$92m.
Valuations: Maintain Neutral with an unchanged TP of S$1.15. Our TP is based on FY13F P/B of 0.85x. In the last 12 months, Ezra traded between 0.7x and 1.1x P/B.