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DBSV S'pore Wired Daily 15 November 2012

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Publish date: Thu, 15 Nov 2012, 10:12 AM

Today's Focus
STX OSV - Subsea remains the bright spot; expect more high value orders. Maintain BUY, TP : S$2.00

Bumitama - Stronger than ever; BUY call reiterated, TP S$1.25

The 30pt drop in STI yesterday brings the index closer to the 200-day SMA support of about 2972. We do not rule out subsequent downside to 2930 in coming weeks as the year-end lull drags. In US, stocks fell more than 1% as fears of turmoil in the Middle East added to ongoing concerns about a fiscal uncertainty in the US. Israel has launched a series of air strikes on what it said are terrorist targets in Gaza.

3Q12 results for STX OSV Holdings were slightly below, Brazilian ops remain a drag. Healthy NOK17.6bn backlog, however, should buffer against lumpy order win momentum. FY12-14F earnings trimmed 3-5% on reduced margins amid the sustained capacity tightness at the Niteroi yard. Maintain BUY, TP reduced slightly to S$2.00 (Prev S$ 2.10). STX OSV remains a key proxy to the buoyant subsea market. We see catalysts from the potential award of more high-value OSCV orders before year-end.

Bumitama Agri's 3Q12 net income of Rp178bn (-7% q-o-q, +59% y-o-y) was ahead of expectations. While ASP achieved was lower than expected, cost (-4% q-o-q) was better than forecast. Earnings forecast tweaked to impute new loans, lower ASP, offset by lower SG&A. BUY call reiterated for 20% upside to TP of S$1.25.

Midas Holdingsreported 3Q12 loss of Rmb6.1m vs Rmb27.4m profit a year ago due to lower revenue and loss from associate Nanjing Puzhen (NPRT). 2012 is a wash-out but we expect 2013 earnings to be much better on more orders and turnaround at NPRT. Look for contract wins from metro, export, and non-rail segments to boost order book. Resumption of high speed passenger train program could provide further upside. Despite the loss in this quarter, we believe Midas is still on track for a recovery in 2013 with more orders and we maintain our BUY call and S$0.49 target price based on 1x FY12 P/BV. Current valuation at under 0.8x P/BV is attractive for a turnaround story.

Tiong Seng Holdings' 9M12 performance was ahead on construction projects. Strong order book of S$1.3bn boosts earnings visibility. Maintain BUY, TP S$0.25.

Olam's 1QFY13 core profit of S$33.1m (-3% y-o-y) was above our S$25-27m estimate. Edible Nuts, Confectionary and Food Staples posted healthy growth. FY13-15F earnings raised 4-8% after imputing higher Food Staples contribution and capex. Maintain Hold, TP lowered to S$1.90 from S$2.00. While we expect 2Q13 to up q-o-q, we anticipate another quarter of weak y-o-y growth as the increase in overheads should continue to be a drag on Olam's earnings.

Results for City Developments were dragged by higher effective tax rate while operating momentum remains intact. Residential activities and landbanking are expected to drive earnings visibility while hotel operations are expected to see modest growth. Maintain Fully Valued, TP reduced to $11.28 (Prev S$ 11.42).

1Q13 results for ASL Marine in line, with significant upside surprise on margins. Our analyst has raised FY13/14F earnings by 8%/30%, to S$49m/S$60m respectively as he adjusts orderbook recognition schedule and raise gross margin assumptions. TP raised to S$0.90 (Prev S$ 0.83). Maintain BUY on ASL for its strong earnings recovery, good execution, strong earnings visibility on healthy shipbuilding orderbook and a resurging ship repair business.

Underlying profit for SingTel was 3%-5% below our estimate due to weak earnings in the core markets of Singapore and Australia. Interim dividend of 6.8 Scts was in line. Investments and acquisitions with focus on the long term may cast shadow over earnings in the next 1-2 years. FY13F/14F earnings were trimmed by 4% each. Maintain HOLD with TP of S$3.25 for 5% yield.

3Q numbers for Ying Li turned around into a profit of Rmb10.3m from a loss of Rmb10.6m last year as more IFC office unit sales were recognised. Revenue recognition is slower than expected, but earnings growth momentum should remain firm as rental and sales income from IFC and Da Ping project flow in. 4Q12 net profit could see further revaluation gains from IFC, boosting earnings and NAV. Maintain BUY, TP S$0.51 (40% discount to RNAV).

3Q12 results for YanlordLand Group were in line with expectations. FY13 contracted sales is constrained by saleable resources. Saleable resources for FY13 is lower than in FY12 (and lower than our estimate), mainly due to the slow construction pace in 2H11 and 1H12. Yanlord will still take a prudent approach in new land acquisitions to ensure a stronger balance sheet. Maintain HOLD, TP S$1.24.

Armstrongregistered 3Q12 net profit of $2.8m (3Q11 net profit: S$122,000) due to absence of one-off forex-related charges. Data Storage weakness was cushioned by growth in Automotive and Consumer Electronics. The group expects similar revenue but higher net profit in FY2012 versus FY2011.

Ezra's 46%-owned associate, EOC Ltd, has finally announced the award for the charter of its FPSO, Lewek Arunothai, from Hess E&P Malaysia. The award is for a firm 3-year charter worth US$272.1m, with extension options of up to 3 years, worth another US$271.1m (i.e. total potential contract value of US$543.2m). Day rates on this charter work out to be c. US$248k/day, generating annual earnings of c. US$9m.

Oxley Holdingshas exercised an option to buy a property known as 71/73/73A Oxley Rise for $130m. The property has a freehold land area of about 25,630 sq ft. The price works out to about $1,453 psf ppr. The site is zoned for commercial and residential use with a 4.2+ plot ratio.

Singapore's final GDP growth figures for the third quarter are expected to be revised lower. Previous official advance estimates expect the economy to contract by 1.5% QoQ saar (1.3% YoY) in the quarter. But the actual figure due to be announced this Friday morning will most likely report a more severe drop of 3.0% QoQ saar (0.9% YoY). Production output growth in the manufacturing sector has been disappointing in September and growth momentum in the services is also likely to be more sluggish than earlier anticipated.

The estimated budget to build the new MRT Downtown Line (DTL) in Singapore's train network has risen to $20.7 bn, up from an earlier forecast of $12 bn. Transport Minister Lui Tuck Yew disclosed that half of the $8.7 bn increase stemmed from a spike in construction costs from late-2007 onwards, while other factors included having more entrances and underground links that were not part of the original design.

Source: DBSV
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