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DBSV S'pore Wired Daily 14 November 2012

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Publish date: Wed, 14 Nov 2012, 01:19 PM

Today's Focus
Goodpack - Fairly priced, downgrade to HOLD, TP S$1.95
CSE Global - Guidance revised down, downgrade to HOLDwith lower TP of S$0.85

Goodpack posted 1QFY13 net profit of US$13.0m (+10% y-o-y, +16% q-o-q), slightly above on an annualised basis. Our analyst has adjusted FY14-16F earnings by -3% to 2% onupdated IBC fleet size and recent debt raising. While we are still positive on Goodpack's medium-term outlook, with the counter now trading close to our revised TP of S$1.95 (Prev S$2.00), we downgrade it to HOLD.

3Q12 earnings of S$10.8m for CSE Global missed our S$14m estimate due to lower gross margins in the US and UK, and forex losses. CSE has revised down guidance for FY12 core profit to below FY10 profit of S$52.5m (instead of in line previously). We cut FY12F/13F earnings by 10%/7% after trimming margins; downgrade to HOLD with S$0.85 (Prev S$ 0.90) TP pegged to 8x FY13F PE; stock price will be supported by proven track record and 5.3% yield.

ComfortDelgroposted a record 3Q12 net profit ' within expectations. EBIT margins remained stable despite cost challenges. Shares have been trading below historical average even with YTD share price appreciation of c.19%. Maintain BUY, TP: S$1.86. CD is our preferred land transport counter over SMRT.

Genting Singapore'sresults below expectations, VIP & local mass segments still soft. 4Q12-1Q13 should be seasonally stronger given festive and school holidays while 2Q13 should see EBITDA margins recover as Western Zone ramps up. Our analyst has cut 2012-14E EBITDA by 14-17%; maintain Hold with a reduced TP of S$1.30 (from S$1.45).

SingTel's 2QFY13 underlying profit of S$886m (+4% QoQ, 0% YoY) was towards the lower end of our expectations of S$880m-930m mainly due to weak earnings in Singapore and Australia. Interim dividend of 6.8 Scts flat YoY (62% payout ratio) was inline with our expectations. Singapore was below expectations due to losses in the Digital Media business. Optus was slightly below our estimates on higher depreciation and amortization. Associates were slightly above expectations due to ceasing of equity accounting for Warid. SingTel maintained its stable EBITDA guidance from Singapore and Australia but revised down its guidance for group revenue to decline from low-single digit growth earlier. This is due to drastic impact of mobile termination rate cut in Australia leading to both lower revenue and costs. Will follow-up with a full report.


Silverlake's 1QFY13 net profit of Rm39.5m (+42% YoY) beat our estimate of RM35m due to higher contribution from higher-margin licensing and maintenance business. We may review our forecast and TP post meeting with the management later in the evening. Our current recommendation is Buy, with TP of S$ 0.50.

3Q12 results for Sound Global exceeds, driven by Engineering, Procurement and Construction (EPC) and product sales. Its Rmb2.5bn orderbook renders good earnings visibility; FY12/13F earnings raised by 8%/12%. Maintain Buy with higher TP of S$0.90 (Prev S$ 0.86).

Nam Cheong's 3Q12 earnings of RM31.6m were in line, boosted by better gross margins despite shortfall in revenue. The group has sold 4 AHTS vessels worth US$45m for delivery in FY13. Earnings are expected to pick up significantly in 4Q12 and FY13, with contribution from recent slew of vessel sale contracts. Maintain BUY with TP of S$0.30.

Golden Agri Resourcesbooked 3Q12 earnings of US$85.9m (-20.5% q-o-q, -21.6% y-o-y). The poor results were dragged by higher CPO inventory and drop in China business. Post results, our analyst has revised FY12F to 14F earnings by -1% to -20% and lowered fair value to S$0.68 from S$0.73. We think there should be some upside should CPO prices rebound (on higher exports to China) but we do not recommend the counter for long term position given the low visibility and volatility in earnings and cash flow.

ASL Marine's 1Q13 results in-line, outlook buoyant. There is upside potential to our FY13/14F earnings as we adjust our orderbook recognition schedule and raise our margin assumptions. We will follow up with a detailed report. According to a Bloomberg article, Mr Harindarpal Singh Banga, Vice Chairman of Noble Group is looking to sell half of his existing holdings (225m out of 433.9m shares) at between S$1.10-1.12. This is a 4-6% discount to the last closing price at $1.165. While we are positive on Noble on a 12 month basis (BUY, TP of S$1.50), we expect Olam to report weak results today which may drag Noble's share price in the near term.

Swiber has clinched a sizeable contract wins worth approximately US$143m. This comprises an approximate US$100m contract for offshore construction work in Southeast Asia; and an approximate US$43m contract for the charter of a construction vessel that will be deployed to Latin America this year.

Tiger Airways'October 2012 operating data. After a slight blip in September, Tiger Singapore came back strongly, reporting a 30% y-o-y and 15% m-o-m increase in carriage to 674m p-km, as the Group renewed growth in Singapore operations, given that Australia has stabilized now. New routes and frequencies were added but load factor was robust at 83%, a rise of 4 ppt m-o-m and 9 ppt y-o-y. This augurs well for Tiger Singapore's profitability, as we head into the peak season months.

Over at Tiger Australia, operations remained stable with passenger traffic of 260m p-km coming in at par with September 2012 numbers. Load factor was slightly weaker at  80%, as new capacity continues to be introduced over time. Tiger Australia is back operating on a capacity and schedule comparable to the pre-suspension levels. With CASA lifting all sector restrictions on Tiger Australia, the airline is expected to increase capacity further through the introduction of new routes out of Melbourne and Sydney in the coming months, in time for peak season demand. Maintain BUY with S$0.90 TP.

Source: DBSV
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